\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 281 Accelink Technologies Co.Ltd(002281) )
Main points:
Event: the company released the first quarterly report of 2022.
In the first quarter of 2022, the company achieved a revenue of 1.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.3% and a month on month decrease of 2.8%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 140 million yuan, an increase of 8.7% year-on-year and 28.8% month on month. Historically, the company has achieved the best quarterly performance in the past decade and is expected to achieve an increase higher than last year.
The transmission product line benefited from the “counting from the east to the west”, and the growth rate of transmission modules and subsystems accelerated.
According to the introduction of the national development and Reform Commission, among the 10 national data center clusters in China this year, 25 new projects have been started, and the rack scale has reached 540000 standard racks, driving the investment in all aspects to exceed 190 billion yuan, of which the investment in the western region has increased six times year-on-year. The shift of investment regional focus will lead to the expansion of data transmission channels. This year, the backbone nodes in the central and western regions are expected to usher in the expansion. At the same time, the three major operators and CITIC network are accelerating the construction of data center direct network. For example, cn2-dci of Telecom will add 49T of backbone network bandwidth in three years, and the mobile cloud private network has formed n + 31 + X node interconnection covering provinces and cities across the country. Guangxun’s transmission product line includes passive components, transmission modules, optical amplifiers, subsystems, etc. its transmission modules are the third-party suppliers with the largest share in the three main equipment manufacturers. DCI includes high-end white box equipment, combining and splitting wave, optical amplification, OLP and coherent optical modules, which is expected to achieve a high-speed growth of more than 50%. The growth rate of the whole transmission sector this year may be higher than that of last year.
The overseas market demand of digital communication optical module is strong, and the Chinese market is also marginally improved compared with last year.
According to the latest research report of lightcounting, the global Ethernet optical module is expected to continue to grow by 23% to US $5.7 billion in 2022, and then maintain a compound growth rate of 14% from 2022 to 2027. The delayed network deployment from overseas enterprises and telecommunications networks due to the epidemic has driven the growth of the low-speed market last year, and the main factor driving the market growth this year is the demand for 200gbe and 400gbe optical modules. According to our calculation, the market of 200gbe + 400gbe + 800gbe high-speed digital communication will reach US $2.36 billion this year, with a year-on-year increase of 95%. At present, the main markets of overseas digital communication are divided into two markets: direct supply by cloud manufacturers and supporting by switch equipment manufacturers. Among them, direct supply by cloud manufacturers is mainly the top 5 cloud manufacturers in the world, accounting for about 40%. The threshold is high and the pattern is concentrated. The main suppliers of the company are Chinese Internet manufacturers and major switch equipment manufacturers in the world, About 40% of the touchtone market, and the market space is still broad. We estimate that the company’s market share in China’s digital communication last year was about 21%, which will benefit from China’s 200g / 400g network upgrading investment. In addition, the company’s latest raised investment project will expand the production of 400g / 800g digital communication modules, with an annual production capacity of 700000. We expect the company’s digital communication business to maintain a compound growth of about 20%.
The company’s position as a global head optical device manufacturer is stable, and its R & D has entered the high-end optical chip series.
According to omdia statistics, the company ranks fourth among the top ten optical module manufacturers in the world, with a share of 8%, an increase of 0.6pct over the previous year. Iivi (Finisar), lumentum and Broadcom, the other three overseas leading manufacturers in the top five in the world, have self-research / manufacturing capabilities of optical chips and even electrical chips. We believe that in the long run, the optical module company may pay more attention to the research and development of the upper chip and the lower ability, so as to seize the first opportunity in the rapid iterative technology competition, master the unique technical advantages and reduce the comprehensive cost Accelink Technologies Co.Ltd(002281) has the capability of self-development of the whole stack of passive / active optical chips. In terms of passivity, its PLC and AWG chips take the lead in the world (self supplied), and research and development based on LCOS technology breaks through the core device WSS of ROADM. In terms of active, the company’s VCSEL and 10gdfb / / PD series are fully self-sufficient, and the self-sufficiency rate of 25gdfb may be more than 70%. The company has launched self-development of 25g / 50gpon, 400g / 800gbe and more than 100g coherent module core optical chips, which is expected to seize the opportunity to replace domestic cores of high-end optical modules / optical devices.
Investment advice
We believe that the company has a smooth start in 2022, with high visibility of orders on hand and clear driving force of annual performance. It is expected that the company will realize net profits attributable to the parent company of RMB 670 million, RMB 820 million and RMB 970 million in 2022, 2023 and 2024 respectively. The current share price corresponds to the price earnings ratio of 2022 / 2023, which is 15.1 / 12.3 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The transmission network investment of operators is lower than expected, the market share of the company’s data center is lower than expected, the Chinese epidemic has repeatedly affected the supply chain, self owned chip production capacity or quality problems, and the Sino US science and technology trade friction affects the stability of the supply chain.
