\u3000\u30 Fawer Automotive Parts Limited Company(000030) 38 Anhui Xinbo Aluminum Co.Ltd(003038) )
Key investment points
Performance summary: the company achieved an operating revenue of 967 million yuan in the first quarter of 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 109.48%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 46 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 70.29%; Net profit deducted from non parent company was 36 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 75.81%.
Revenue increased month on month, and the performance deviated from the forecast upper limit. Previously, the company's performance forecast range was 43 ~ 49 million yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent in the first quarter was partial to the upper limit of the forecast. In the first quarter, driven by China's 21 year deferred projects and India's rush to install, the photovoltaic demand exceeded expectations. The company's IPO raised investment capacity has been put into operation in 21q4, with a total capacity of about 200000 tons. 22q1 production capacity continued to climb, and revenue increased by 13.67% month on month. It is expected that the company's shipments will basically keep pace with revenue month on month.
Benefit from improved capacity utilization, flexible inventory management and improved profitability. The price of aluminum ingot continued to rise after the short-term decline of 21q4, and 22q1 was at a high level as a whole. Since January 2022, the company has increased its safety stock for about one week to deal with the risk of rising raw materials. At the same time, by encouraging customers to increase the frequency of placing orders, we can reduce the cycle from placing orders to purchasing aluminum rods. Thanks to the company's flexible order and inventory management strategy and the improvement of capacity utilization, the comprehensive gross profit margin of 22q1 company was 12.32%, a slight increase of 0.68pp month on month. With the provision of about 9.89 million credit impairment losses, the company's net interest rate still increased slightly.
Aluminum ingot prices fluctuate at a high level, and the company has obvious advantages in financing ability. Affected by the growth of shipments, the high price of raw materials and the funds occupied by downstream customers, the company's net operating cash flow outflow was 250 million. For this reason, the company increased bank loan financing. At the end of 22q1, the company's short-term loan balance was 1.366 billion yuan, an increase of 534 million yuan over the beginning of 2021; The company's financial expenses in the first quarter were 17.37 million yuan, with a significant increase in the same period and month on month. The company's non-public offering of shares has been approved by the CSRC. It plans to raise no more than 780 million yuan for the project of photovoltaic aluminum components with an annual output of 100000 tons and supplement working capital. As a listed company, Anhui Xinbo Aluminum Co.Ltd(003038) financing channels are unobstructed, capital advantages are obvious, production capacity maintains the pace of expansion, and the market share is expected to continue to increase.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. The company's performance deviated from the forecast upper limit, the new production capacity climbed steadily after being put into operation, and the shipment volume maintained growth month on month. Through flexible order and inventory management, the company effectively responded to the rise of raw material prices and continued to improve its profits. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 269 million yuan, 414 million yuan and 557 million yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 18, 12 and 9 times respectively. Maintain the "buy" rating, consider the conversion of profit distribution to share capital in 2022, and the target price is adjusted to 73.57 yuan.
Risk tip: the price of aluminum ingot rises rapidly, the aluminum frame is replaced by other products, and the construction and production progress of new production capacity is less than expected.
