\u3000\u30003 Anhui Fengyuan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000153) 00015)
Key investment points
Event: in 2021, the company achieved revenue of 15.001 billion yuan (+ 25.93%), net profit attributable to parent company of 2.323 billion yuan (+ 34.78%), net profit not attributable to parent company of 2.783 billion yuan (+ 30.59%), and performance in 2021 slightly exceeded expectations. In 2022q1, the company's revenue, net profit attributable to the parent and net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent increased by 18.72%, 26.15% and 22.49% respectively year-on-year, and the performance growth was generally in line with expectations.
Diopter and optometry business grew rapidly, the proportion increased, and the business structure continued to be optimized. In terms of business, the revenue of refractive projects was 5.52 billion yuan (+ 26.92%), accounting for 36.80%; The revenue of optometry project was 3.378 billion yuan (+ 37.68%), accounting for 22.52%; Cataract projects achieved a revenue of 2.191 billion yuan (+ 11.72%), accounting for 14.61%; The income of anterior segment and posterior segment projects was 1.456 billion yuan (+ 21.29%) and 995 million yuan (+ 21.69%), accounting for 9.71% and 6.63% respectively. In 2021, refractive and optometry business revenue accounted for about 59.32% in total, with a year-on-year increase of 2.21 PCT. There is a strong demand for myopia refractive and optometry business. Brand strengthening and operation upgrading continue to promote the volume and price of myopia refractive surgery. The optometry business is expected to maintain high growth driven by the improvement of OK lens penetration and the popularization of defocus lens. We believe that the proportion of myopia refractive and optometry business of the company is expected to increase in the future, and enhance the anti risk ability of the company in terms of epidemic situation and policies.
The expense rate increased during the period, but the profit margin report further improved. In 2021, the company's gross profit margin and net profit margin were 51.92% and 16.47% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 0.89pct and 0.71pct respectively. In 2021, the company's sales / management / R & D / financial expense rates were 9.65%, 13.05%, 1.48% and 0.71% respectively, with year-on-year changes of + 0.7pct, + 1.08pct, + 0.1pct and -0.05pct respectively. During the period, the expense rate increased by 1.83pct due to the expansion of schedule scale, the increase of personnel cost and the increase of R & D projects. The growth of refractive and optometry business with high gross profit promoted the gross profit margin, and the expense rate increased during the period, but the profitability further improved.
2022q1 was driven by demand and affected by the epidemic, and the performance growth was in line with expectations. From January to February 2022, the company's revenue increased steadily, but in March, the serious epidemic in some areas led to the suspension or flow restriction of local hospitals, which affected the growth of Q1 revenue. The gross profit margin and net profit margin of 2022q1 company are 47% and 16.62% respectively. Considering that most of the newly acquired hospitals are still in the cultivation period, it is estimated that the endogenous growth of the company will contribute to the main profit side performance, and the improvement of the profits of new and old hospitals will promote the steady growth of performance.
Profit forecast and investment rating: considering that the rapid growth of the company's refractive and optometry business with high gross profit has led to the optimization of business structure, the steady growth of stock hospitals in listed companies and the gradual contribution of M & A hospitals to profits, the company's performance is expected to maintain steady and rapid growth in the long run. Considering the epidemic situation, we adjusted the net profit attributable to the parent company from 3.014/3.959 billion yuan to 2.952/3.844 billion yuan from 2022 to 2023, and it is expected to be 4.989 billion yuan in 2024. The PE valuation corresponding to the current market value from 2022 to 2024 is 61 / 47 / 36 times respectively, maintaining the "buy rating".
Risk warning: the risk of hospital expansion or integration is less than expected; The risk that the hospital's profit improvement is less than expected; Medical malpractice risk; The risk of repeated outbreaks.
