\u3000\u30 Jinzai Food Group Co.Ltd(003000) 03 Lepu Medical Technology (Beijing) Co.Ltd(300003) )
Key investment points
Event: the company announced that in the 21st Annual Report and the first quarterly report of 22 years, the operating revenue in 2021 was 10.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.61%, the net profit attributable to the parent was 1.719 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.58%, and the non net profit deducted was 1.855 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.29%; In 2022q1, the operating revenue was 2.549 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.28%, the net profit attributable to the parent was 545 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.89%, and the non net profit deducted was 547 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.83%.
Innovative products drive the rapid growth of conventional business, and the quarterly fluctuation of covid-19 kit affects the apparent growth rate. The year-on-year decrease in the profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 is mainly due to the changes in non recurring profits and losses caused by the fluctuation of the stock price during the company’s holding of Junshi Jinyu Bio-Technology Co.Ltd(600201) period. In the single quarter of 2021q4, the operating revenue was 2.025 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 22.62%, the net profit attributable to the parent company was -202 million yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 17.96%, and the deduction of non net profit was -230 million yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 25.22%. The decline of covid-19 demand on the revenue side can basically reflect the level of conventional business; The profit side is mainly affected by short-term negative factors such as the fluctuation of investment income and the scrapping of products caused by the adjustment of covid-19 product demand. After excluding the 19.15% year-on-year growth of vid-2q1 business base and the 19.15% year-on-year growth of vid-2q1 business base.
The innovative product portfolio will be further expanded, and the conventional products of medical devices are expected to maintain a rapid growth of 30 +%. In 2021, the company’s medical devices achieved 6.169 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 81.43%, a year-on-year increase of 20.65% after excluding covid-19 products, and the operating revenue of innovative product portfolio increased by 827.36% year-on-year, effectively making up for the significant decline in the scale of revenue after centralized mining of traditional metal stents. 22q1 medical device segment’s regular business revenue excluding covid-19 products increased by 37.67% year-on-year, of which the intervention innovation product portfolio increased by 118.14% year-on-year. We expect that in the post centralized purchase era, with the continuous volume of innovative products, the company’s medical device segment is expected to maintain a rapid growth of 30 +%.
Steady growth in cash flow and stable provision of drug services. In 2021, the company’s pharmaceutical sector achieved 3.258 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.50%, and gradually entered the state of centralized procurement normalization. The company’s API business is actively transforming to cdmo business, which is expected to bring new growth points; The revenue of medical services and health management was 1.232 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.44%.
R & D investment continues to increase, and innovative devices are about to enter the harvest period. In 2021, the company invested 1.111 billion yuan in R & D, accounting for 10.43% of revenue. The R & D expenses increased quarter by quarter, laying the foundation for the company’s medium and long-term development. At present, the company’s innovative devices have been successfully deployed in the fields of coronary artery and peripheral, structural heart disease, heart rhythm management, AI health management and consumer devices (Ophthalmology, Stomatology, medical aesthetics) to continuously consolidate the company’s market competitiveness.
Profit forecast and Valuation: we adjusted the profit forecast according to the annual report and the first quarterly report. It is expected that the regular business is expected to continue the rapid growth trend. Covid-19 products may contribute to stable cash flow. From 2022 to 2024, the company’s revenue was 10.987, 12.391 and 14.339 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3%, 13% and 16% (11.138 and 13.169 billion yuan before adjustment), and the net profit attributable to the parent was 1.977, 2.308 and 2.747 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 15% and 17% 19% (2.402 billion yuan and 2.830 billion yuan in 22-23 years before adjustment), and the corresponding EPS is 1.10, 1.28 and 1.52. At present, the company’s share price corresponds to 16 times PE in 2022. Considering that the company’s innovative products such as absorbable stents have entered the large-scale stage, the pipeline under research of innovative devices has strong growth and maintains the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the risk of product market promotion failing to meet expectations, the risk of policy change, and the risk of product R & D failure.
