\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 598 Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) )
Event: on April 25, 2022, the company released the first quarterly report of 2022. 22q1 company achieved revenue of 450 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 125.80%, unchanged month on month; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 203 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 162.50% and a month on month increase of + 21.56%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 137 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 83.94% and a month on month increase of – 9.87%. The higher than expected performance was mainly due to the higher than expected shipment. The non economic profit and loss mainly comes from the government subsidy of 22q1 company of 76 million yuan.
Shipments in the first quarter exceeded expectations, and the net profit per ton remained stable as a whole. 22q1 benefited from the company’s IPO raised investment projects, over raised capital projects and convertible bond raised investment projects reaching production one after another. It is expected that about 570580 tons will be shipped in the first quarter, with a year-on-year increase of + 174% and a month on month increase of + 6%; The price (excluding tax) is about 750000 yuan, a month on month increase of – 9.6%; The net profit per ton is about 240000 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of – 13%. If the impact of share based payment and convertible bond interest of about 35 million yuan is excluded, the net profit per ton is about 300000 yuan / ton. Despite some capacity transformation, due to the strong demand of the photovoltaic industry in the first quarter and the company’s partial inventory in 21q4, the shipment of 22q1 exceeded the market expectation. At the same time, the company shipped about 20 tons of high-purity thermal insulation material Q1, contributing to part of the performance increment.
Share repurchase demonstrates the confidence of the company. The company plans to buy back shares to convert convertible bonds issued by the company. The total repurchase fund shall not be less than 80 million yuan (inclusive), not more than 100 million yuan (inclusive), and the repurchase price shall not exceed 300 yuan / share (inclusive); After the repurchase is completed and all of it is used to convert convertible bonds into shares, the equity situation of the company will not change. The repurchase period is within 2 months from the date when the board of directors deliberates and approves the repurchase plan.
Benefiting from the acceleration of technology iteration, the company is expected to continue to increase its market share. At present, the silicon wafer is in the stage of iteration from p-type to n-type. Due to the higher purity requirements of n-type silicon wafer, purification equipment needs to be added at the back end in the thermal field link. The company currently supplies n-type silicon wafer thermal field products to overseas manufacturers in batches, and plans to increase the pure thermal field by more than 1500 tons. It is oriented to the forward-looking layout of n-type silicon wafer thermal field and semiconductor thermal field. With the increase of the proportion of n-type silicon wafer, The company is expected to achieve a simultaneous increase in volume and market share in the thermal field of n-type silicon wafer.
The second growth curve is beginning to emerge, and all links are progressing smoothly: the company has built a platform R & D enterprise around carbon matrix composites. In terms of carbon / ceramic brake discs, the company continues to reduce the cost of products. At present, the introduction of carbon ceramic brake disc products into China’s leading car enterprises has been accelerated, and the verification has been successful. The on-board adaptability test has been completed in the head car enterprises, and it was announced on March 29 that it has obtained iatf16949 certification, It marks that the company has obtained the pass to enter the automobile supply chain, and provides a stronger guarantee for the expansion of the company’s carbon ceramic brake disc products in the global automobile brake Market; In terms of semiconductor silicon carbide, on April 8, the company signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Tianke Heda and reached a five-year in-depth strategic partnership to jointly accelerate the R & D and application of the third generation semiconductor field; In terms of hydrogen energy, the company uses the by-products in the production process and the same type of raw materials to engage in the product layout of related aspects, including hydrogen tail gas utilization, hydrogen storage bottle and carbon paper. It is expected that the relevant businesses will realize large-scale production in the second half of 2022.
Investment suggestion: we expect the company’s revenue from 2022 to 2024 to be 1.953 billion yuan, 3.001 billion yuan and 5.138 billion yuan respectively, with a growth rate of 46% / 54% / 71%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 726 million, RMB 965 million and RMB 1519 million respectively, with a growth rate of 45% / 33% / 57%. The corresponding PE of 22-24 years on April 25 was 20x / 15x / 10x; The competitiveness of the company’s main business has been continuously strengthened, the second growth curve is emerging, and the “recommended” rating has been maintained.
Risk tip: the speed of capacity expansion is lower than expected; Downstream demand was lower than expected.
