\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 161 Beijing Tiantan Biological Products Corporation Limited(600161) )
Event: the company released its annual report for 2021. In the whole year of 21, it is expected to realize revenue of 4.112 billion yuan (+ 19.35%), net profit attributable to parent company of 760 million yuan (+ 18.94%), and net profit not attributable to parent company of 756 million yuan (+ 21.12%). Q4 achieved a revenue of 1.29 billion yuan (+ 59.8%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 202 million yuan (+ 45.0%).
The company announced that in the first quarter report of 2022, Q1 achieved revenue of 704 million yuan (- 16.8%), net profit attributable to listed companies of 125 million yuan (- 17.5%), deducting non net profit of 116 million yuan (- 22.83%)
In Q4 of 2021, the rapid growth in the single quarter exceeded expectations. In 2021, the gross profit margin is 47.5% (year-on-year – 2.2pp), which is expected to be mainly related to the increase in costs (increase in labor costs and manufacturing expenses), the sales expense rate is 6.6% (year-on-year – 0.6pp), and the management expense rate is 8.0% (year-on-year + 0.5pp). It is expected to be related to the increase in personnel strength and salary, and the R & D expense rate is 3.2% (year-on-year – 0.2pp).
Q4 grew faster than expected in a single quarter. The company’s Q3 single quarter growth rate declined in the 21st year, and the Q4 single quarter growth rate increased significantly. It is expected to be related to the time point when the company’s terminal delivery revenue is confirmed. The industry demand and the company’s product supply are expected to be relatively stable.
The supply of blood products is expected to maintain a stable growth in 22 years. The year-on-year decline in revenue in the first quarter of 2022 is expected to be related to the impact of the epidemic on transportation and terminal demand. From the perspective of supply, the batch issuance of albumin in the first quarter is estimated to have decreased by about 13% year-on-year from January to march according to the data of the central people’s Procuratorate. At the end of 2021, the inventory was 2.14 billion yuan (- 30 million yuan), which was basically the same as that at the beginning of the period, including 924 million yuan of raw materials (+ 84 million yuan) and 1.066 billion yuan of products in process (- 21 million yuan). According to the announcement, the slurry extraction volume in 2021 will be 1809 tons (+ 6%), and 15 new slurry stations will be approved in 21 years, which is expected to be completed within 22 years and contribute to the new slurry volume. Considering the stock situation and the pulp collection volume in 22 years, we expect the supply of blood products to maintain a stable growth in 22 years.
The logic of doubling the slurry collection volume continues to be fulfilled. According to the announcement, from 2021 to the end of March 22, the company set up 23 pulp stations in Guizhou, Gansu, Hubei, Hebei, Jilin and other places, including Jiangkou, Yuzhong, Badong, Lincheng and Nong’an, creating new achievements in the expansion of the company over the years. At the beginning of November 21, Yunnan Province issued the plan for the setting of plasma collection stations from 2021 to 2023. There are 19 plasma collection stations in the province, and Beijing Tiantan Biological Products Corporation Limited(600161) is expected to be the biggest beneficiary. In addition, the company is expected to continue to be approved pulp stations in Guizhou, Gansu, Hubei, Sichuan and other places, and the logic of doubling the pulp collection volume continues to be fulfilled.
Human coagulation factor VIII has been approved and the profit increase logic of ton pulp is being realized. According to the announcement, human coagulation factor VIII has been approved, and the trial production of Chengdu Rongsheng Yong’an base has been completed. After the operation of Yong’an blood system in 22 years, the production capacity will be released and new products will be put into operation, and the performance in 22 years is expected to be improved. According to our calculation, the revenue per ton of pulp is expected to increase significantly, and most of it is expected to turn into profits, and the profit per ton of pulp is expected to increase significantly. For other varieties, Rongsheng recombinant coagulation factor 8 has completed chromatography of jing-c (pH 4, 10%), and human fibrinogen has completed phase III clinical trial and obtained a summary report, which is expected to be approved for listing in 2023.
Investment suggestion: the current valuation is about 26 billion yuan, the downward space is limited, the growth logic continues to be fulfilled (the increase of pulp investment + the increase of profit per ton of pulp), and the growth rate in 22 years is expected to increase. The newly approved 15 pulp stations in 21 years are expected to contribute to the increment in 22 years. Coagulation factor 8 has been approved, and the profit per ton of pulp is expected to increase from the second half of 22 years. We expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 22 to 2023 to be 865 million yuan and 1.064 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to 30 and 25 times of PE respectively, and continue to give a “buy” rating.
Risk prompt: risk of changes in centralized purchase policies; Market competition risk; R & D risk.
