\u3000\u30 Xuchang Ketop Testing Research Institute Co.Ltd(003008) 16 Actblue Co.Ltd(300816) )
Event 1: the company released its annual report for 2021. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 866 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 27.92%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 70 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 44.44%. In the fourth quarter, the company achieved a revenue of 266 million yuan in a single quarter, a year-on-year increase of + 14.94%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 13 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 63.26%. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.74 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares. Event 2: the company released the first quarter report of 2022. In 2022q1, the company achieved a revenue of 230 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 22.60%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 13 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 58.17%. The company’s annual and first quarter performance met expectations.
At the initial stage of the localization process of national VI diesel engine, the company’s profit fell periodically. In 2021, the gross profit margin of the company was 23.13%, a year-on-year decrease of 12.77 percentage points, and the net profit margin was 7.68%, a year-on-year decrease of 10.68 percentage points, mainly due to the relatively low gross profit margin of guo6 diesel engine post-treatment products due to the short time that guo6 diesel engine post-treatment products were introduced to the market and the large-scale effect of products has not been reflected; The localization process of national six diesel engine post-treatment has just begun. In the early stage of national six phase, the proportion of self-produced parts in the diesel engine post-treatment products sold by the company is lower than that in the middle and late stage of national five phase, resulting in the decline of gross profit margin. The net operating cash flow is 02 million yuan and the construction in progress is 59 million yuan; The management fee was 50 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 135.37%, mainly due to the increase in the salary of ABF management personnel, consulting service fee and inventory scrapping of the subsidiary acquired within the scope of consolidation; The R & D expense was 48 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 34.56%, which was mainly due to the increase of R & D expense due to the acquisition of subsidiary ABF within the consolidation scope, as well as the increase of employee salary and material cost in the current period. The company is going through the transition from country 5 to country 6, with a sharp decline in revenue and net profit, and the annual performance is in line with expectations.
The implementation of non road country IV standard and ship country II standard opens a broader market space for the tail gas aftertreatment market. At present, road vehicles are the main application fields of engine exhaust after treatment products. The introduction of the national second emission standard for ships and the national fourth emission standard for non road machinery has further widened the application fields of exhaust treatment products and provided broader market space for the rapid development of exhaust after treatment market. In 2021, the output of hybrid electric vehicles in China was about 688900, with a year-on-year increase of 35.3%; The sales volume of hybrid vehicles was 668700, a year-on-year increase of 34%. The company has completed the development of aftertreatment technology suitable for hybrid vehicles. The rise of hybrid vehicles and the continuous demand for exhaust aftertreatment products also provide good development opportunities for the company.
The company has achieved batch supply in the field of national VI gasoline engine and national VI diesel engine, and the technical level has been at the forefront of the industry. The company’s main products are engine exhaust post-treatment products of national V and national VI emission standards for diesel engines and national VI emission standards for gasoline engines. It has achieved batch supply in the field of national VI gasoline engines and national VI diesel engines, and has realized the supply of a full set of post-treatment systems to Zhenjiang shipyard, Weichai Heavy Machinery Co.Ltd(000880) , anchai, guangchai shares, Ningbo Zhongce and other customers. According to the statistics of China Automobile Industry Association and the sales volume of the company’s products, the market share of the company’s main products in light diesel trucks in 2021 was 12.91%, an increase of 1.40% over last year. With the promotion of the industrialization process in six countries, we expect the profitability of the company to be gradually improved.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: we expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to be 99 / 175 / 239 million yuan respectively, 41.9% / 76.6% / 37.1% year-on-year, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price is 20.4 / 11.5 / 8.4 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the promotion progress of national six standards is less than expected, the sales volume of cars has fallen sharply, and the raw materials have fluctuated sharply.
