Jilin Carbon Valley (836077)
Event 1: on the evening of April 25, the company released the first quarterly report of 2022. During the reporting period, the company achieved a revenue of 580 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 159.30% and a month on month increase of 19.41%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 166 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 152.15% and a month on month increase of 22.53%.
Event 2: on the evening of April 18, the company released its 2021 annual report. During the reporting period, the company achieved a revenue of 1.209 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.71%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 315 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 126.09%. 2021q4 achieved a revenue of 486 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 123.25% and a month on month increase of 75.07%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 136 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 154.19% and a month on month increase of 149.96%.
The amount of precursor and carbon fiber is significant, and the company’s performance continues to shine. Benefiting from the high prosperity of the carbon fiber industry and the improvement of the company’s capacity and capacity utilization, the company’s performance in 2021 is good, and the carbon fiber and precursor business is excellent. In 2021, the company’s main product carbon fiber precursor was widely recognized by the market, with strong market demand, orderly release of production capacity and simultaneous increase in volume and profit, and its revenue increased by 92.45% year-on-year. At the same time, benefiting from the increase in the price of carbon fiber precursor, the gross profit margin of the company’s precursor business increased by 6.04 PCT year-on-year. In terms of carbon wire, in March 2021, the company successfully started the high-performance carbon fiber carbonization line with an annual output of 300 tons, and the carbon wire increased to 500 tons / year. Benefiting from the large capacity of carbon fiber, the revenue of the company’s carbon fiber business increased by 592.44% year-on-year in 2021. In addition, the gross profit margin of the company’s carbon fiber business also increased significantly, with a year-on-year increase of about 8.62pct. In 2022, the company’s carbon fiber precursor and carbon fiber products continued to increase in volume, resulting in a significant year-on-year increase in Q1 performance in 2022 and a stable month on month increase.
The production capacity of carbon fiber precursor is gradually expanded to consolidate the leading position of the industry. The company is a leading enterprise in the field of carbon fiber precursor in China. At present, the eight production lines of the 40000 ton precursor project of the company have been completed and put into operation, and the equipment localization has been gradually realized. The company plans to add about 15 Shenzhen Zhongheng Huafa Co.Ltd(000020) 0000 tons of precursor capacity in the next 2-3 years. With the continuous release of precursor production capacity, the company’s operating revenue is expected to continue to grow, driving the profit level to increase year by year. The company’s precursor production has certain technical barriers. DMAC wet two-step carbon fiber precursor production technology has significant advantages, the first-class product rate and full barrel rate of precursor have been steadily improved, and the product quality has been continuously improved. In the follow-up, due to the high technical difficulty and the difficulty of expanding production, the tight supply of carbon fiber precursor will continue. As a leader in China’s precursor field, the company continues to expand production capacity, and will fully benefit from the continuous improvement of downstream demand for carbon fiber.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: the company’s carbon fiber precursor and carbon fiber products continued to increase in volume, and the performance of 2022q1 exceeded expectations. Considering the continuous improvement of downstream demand of the carbon fiber industry and the continuous volume of the company’s production capacity, we raised the company’s profit forecast from 2022 to 2023 and added the profit forecast for 2024. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 6.62 (up 13.7%) / 9.13 (up 16.3%) / 1.256 billion yuan respectively, maintaining the “overweight” rating of the company.
Risk tip: the release of production capacity is less than expected, the risk of product price decline, and the risk of lower downstream demand is less than expected.
