\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 960 Jade Bird Fire Co.Ltd(002960) )
Event: the company announced the first quarterly report, realizing a revenue of 746 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 64.71%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 67 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.64%; After deducting non profits, it increased by 39.40% year-on-year.
The performance in the first quarter significantly exceeded expectations, and the report data has provided clues of high growth in the whole year. In terms of business segments: 1) the general fire alarm business has grown steadily, among which the bluebird brand and overseas business are relatively stable, and the long-term brand has continued to grow by more than 40%; Emergency lighting and intelligent evacuation business maintained a rapid growth trend, with a significant increase of more than 200% over the same period in 2021; Gas fire extinguishing and gas detection businesses maintained steady and rapid growth. 2) Fujian Fuding Group Co., Ltd. has won the bid for the lithium industry projects of more than 10 million yuan, including Fuding Group Co., Ltd. and Fuding Group Co., Ltd., and has actively promoted the lithium industry projects of Fujian Fuding Group Co., Ltd; In terms of energy storage and fire fighting, the company continues to enrich, iterate, multi-dimensional, diversified and combined “detection + fire fighting” energy storage product system, and promote project implementation and multi-dimensional cooperation. 3) In the field of intelligent fire protection, Q1 has carried out the construction of Huangshi fire safety management, Nanjing Logistics Center, Guangxi Vocational and technical college and other projects. The number of online units of ” Jade Bird Fire Co.Ltd(002960) cloud” currently exceeds 22000, and the number of online points exceeds 1.5 million.
In terms of R & D expenses: the R & D expenses in Q1 were 54 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 53.35%. The R & D expenses of the company from 2018 to 2021 were 93 million yuan, 116 million yuan, 138 million yuan and 186 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of 39.84%, 25.15%, 18.72% and 35.11% respectively. The R & D growth rate has further increased since 2022. Historically, one of the biggest problems in the fire protection product industry is the serious homogenization of products and low barriers. However, we believe that the improvement of product standards and technical requirements is the inevitable trend of industrial development. The company’s continuous high R & D investment (the R & D expenses of one company exceed the sum of R & D expenses of the third and fifth companies in the industry) has been effective in the field of industrial fire protection, In the future, it will play a more and more important role in the development of the company.
Inventories and payables: inventories in 2022q1 were 828 million yuan, an increase of 52.92% over the same period in 2021; The prepayment was RMB 114 million, an increase of 181.38% compared with the same period in 2021. The main reason is that the company has made arrangements to stock raw materials and lock long orders in advance in response to scale expansion and changes in the external environment. The report data provides a favorable clue for the company’s high growth throughout the year
Make sufficient reserves for non-public offerings and seize the opportunity of accelerating the liquidation of the industry. On April 19, the company announced the non-public offering plan and proposed to raise 2.206 billion yuan for Jade Bird Fire Co.Ltd(002960) Safety Industrial Park, Mianyang industrial base, intelligent fire fighting platform construction, overseas R & D center and other projects and supplement working capital. For this non-public offering, there are some differences and misunderstandings in the market. Our views are as follows: 1) the actual raising scale will be significantly less than 2.206 billion. 2) The monetary capital of RMB 1.484 billion includes overseas bank deposits of RMB 628 million. 3) Take advantage of capital advantages and seize the opportunity of accelerating the liquidation of the industry in the next five years. (see the text for detailed analysis)
Profit forecast and investment rating: we maintain the company’s EPS of 2.02, 2.74 and 3.67 yuan and PE of 15, 11 and 8 times respectively from 2022 to 2024, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the decline of industry demand and the intensification of competition lead to the continuous decline of product price and gross profit margin
