\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 345 Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) )
Key points
Event: Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) 2021 achieved revenue of 9.272 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.1%, net profit of 687 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.8%, of which 4q21 achieved revenue of 3.176 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.1%, net profit of 191 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.1%, 1q22 achieved revenue of 2.339 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.2%, net profit of 210 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.6%. The revenue was in line with market expectations and the profit exceeded market expectations.
The main business grew steadily and the short-term logistics was limited: 1) by category: the revenue of surimi / meat / rice noodles / dish products in 2021 was 34.8/21.4/20.5/1.43 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 23% / 19% / 24% / 112%. The main business maintained a good growth trend. The growth of the company's dish products was remarkable, mainly due to the acquisition of XINHONGYE (with a combined contribution of Shenzhen Jt Automation Equipment Co.Ltd(300400) million yuan) and Mr. frozen products (with a contribution of 259 million yuan), Excluding XINHONGYE and Kung Fu food acquired by the company in 2021, the income of Anji (including Mr. frozen products) in 2021 was about 8.8-8.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 27%; 2) By channel: dealers / supermarkets / Tetong / e-commerce realized a revenue of 77.2/9.2/4.5/180 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 32% / 10% / 173% / 102%. The growth rate of supermarkets was slightly lower, which was due to the high base in 2020. The accelerated growth of dealer channels benefited from the promotion of lock and fresh clothes and the continuous penetration of dealers into BC supermarkets.
The revenue of 1q22 rice noodles / meat / surimi / dish products increased by 17% / 0% / 1% / 130% year-on-year. The repeated superposition of the epidemic and the cold temperature made the growth of rice noodles and prefabricated vegetable products with higher C-end attributes faster. However, due to the logistics obstruction caused by the epidemic in East China and Northeast China, the growth of surimi and meat products was not obvious. Excluding the acquired XINHONGYE and Kung Fu food, we speculate that the revenue of 1q22 company increased by 8% - 9%, but since April, The logistics situation is gradually improving. The company also actively plans the distribution of transportation capacity, and the follow-up dynamic sales are expected to be further released.
The low cost of raw materials and the fine investment of expenses are expected to improve the profitability: the gross profit margin of the company decreased by 3.56pct year-on-year in 2021, which is due to the rise of raw material prices, the increase of technological transformation investment and the low gross profit margin of XINHONGYE in the first half of 2021. With the elimination of the above disturbance items and the relatively low cost of surimi and pork in 2022, the gross profit margin has room to rise. In 2021, the management expense ratio decreased by 0.8 PCT year-on-year, which is due to the reduction of scale effect and amortization of share based payment expenses, and the sales expense ratio decreased by only 0.1 PCT year-on-year. However, if the M & a business is excluded or there is a certain increase, the company will further refine the investment of expenses, advertising and personnel expenses in 2022.
The scale effect of prefabricated vegetables initially appeared, and the acquisition of xinliuwu consolidated its leading advantage: according to the announcement of the company, the net interest rate of Mr. frozen products from January to February 2022 has reached 9.0%, an increase of 5.5 PCT compared with the whole year of 2021. It is speculated that the scale effect appeared after the volume of products, and the prefabricated vegetables business gradually entered the right track. On April 25, the company acquired Hubei xinliuwu food (mainly surimi and crayfish) to further ensure the control of raw materials and expand the business operation of crayfish. Combined with XINHONGYE previously acquired, Anji is expected to continue to deepen the layout of the industrial chain and consolidate its leading position.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: Anjing channel and manufacturing capacity are leading in the industry, and its leading position is stable. The cost is expected to decline in 2022, and the volume of prefabricated vegetables is expected to increase. When the logistics improves, the main industry is expected to further release the performance flexibility, maintain the net profit forecast of RMB 960 / 1.32 billion in 202223, and increase the net profit forecast of RMB 1.57 billion in 2024
The former share price corresponds to 34 / 25 / 21 times the valuation, maintaining the "buy" rating. Risk tip: logistics continues to be limited, channel expansion is blocked, and raw material costs rise
