\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 100 Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) )
The annual report and the annual report of the parent company are RMB 1.9 billion, and the net profit of 2022y + 1yo is RMB 2.6 billion; In 2021, Q4's revenue was 2.13 billion yuan, yoy-16.0%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 708 million yuan, yoy-9.5%; 3) In 2022, Q1 revenue was 2.2 billion yuan, yoy-23.0%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 530 million yuan, yoy-32.6%.
The share of excavators and non excavators continued to increase. Affected by the continuous growth of China's Excavator Industry and the continuous improvement of the competitiveness of the company's products, the company's product sales achieved steady growth in 2021, and the market share continued to increase: 1) excavator cylinder: revenue increased by 12% year-on-year, sales of 855000 units, yoy + 21.1%. In 2021, the national excavator sales volume was 342800 units, with a year-on-year increase of only 4.63%. In 2021, the growth rate of the company's Excavator cylinder sales exceeded that of the excavator industry, reflecting the continuous improvement of the market share, It is estimated that the market share of the company's Excavator cylinder in 2021 will be 62.4% (one excavator for every four cylinders), yoy + 8.5pct; The average selling price is 4099 yuan / piece, yoy-7.5%, which may be related to the increase in the proportion of small excavation sales in China in 2021; 2) Non standard oil cylinder: product revenue increased by 24% year-on-year, sales of 168000 units, yoy + 36.3%, far exceeding the growth rate of excavator oil cylinder, which reflects that the downstream expansion trend of the company's products is still continuing; 3) Hydraulic pump and valve: revenue of 3.24 billion yuan, yoy + 38.4%, sales of 320000 pieces, yoy + 33.7%, reflecting the trend of the company's continuous increase in the market share of excavators and non excavators, with an average price of 10100 yuan / piece, yoy + 3.5%; 4) Accessories and castings: 680 million yuan, yoy-20.0%, including oil cylinder accessories, pump valve accessories, castings, etc., mainly affected by the decline in the sales of after-sales accessories.
Although the revenue of 2021q4 fell year-on-year, it is not easy, and the net profit attributable to the parent company performed well: 1) the sales volume of excavators in 2021q4 was - 30.35% year-on-year, of which the year-on-year growth rates of 21m10 ~ 21m12 were - 30.5%, - 36.6% (the worst month of year-on-year growth in the whole year of 21) and - 23.8%, and the revenue of 2021q4 company fell 16% year-on-year; 2) 2021q4 achieved a net profit attributable to its parent company of 708 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.44%, which was lower than the revenue, which was related to the company's gross profit margin of 50.8% in the fourth quarter, which was higher than that in the same period last year.
Prediction for 2022: the growth rate is low first and then high. It is expected that the year-on-year growth rate may improve from May. In the company's revenue in 2021, the proportion of non-standard oil cylinder (i.e. non excavator oil cylinder) was only 18.25%. Most businesses are still affected by the boom of excavator industry. In 2022q1, the national excavator sales volume was 77200, with a year-on-year decline of 39.2%, and the year-on-year decline of 2022m3 expanded to 53.1%, which is related to the high base of 2021m3. At present, 2022m4 may be affected by the epidemic, and the year-on-year decline may still be large, It is expected that since May, with the relief of the epidemic pressure and the accumulation of projects in China, and the base number in the same period last year is small, the follow-up year-on-year growth rate is expected to improve. The company's 2022q1 revenue fell by 23% and its profit fell by 32.6%, indicating that it is still greatly dragged down by the excavator industry, but it is expected that it may improve with the improvement of the construction machinery industry in the future.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the net profit of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 2.66 billion yuan, 3.31 billion yuan and 3.98 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 204 yuan, 2.54 yuan and 3.05 yuan respectively, and corresponding valuations of 21x, 17x and 14x respectively, maintaining the "recommended" rating.
Risk tips: 1. The demand of excavator is lower than the expected risk; 2. The global economic recovery is affected by the epidemic and the slowdown affects the risk of overseas demand.
