\u3000\u3 Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) 073 Zhejiang Ssaw Boutique Hotels Co.Ltd(301073) )
Key investment points
Performance summary: in 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 278 million yuan (year-on-year + 8.4%), corresponding to the net profit attributable to the parent company of 37 million yuan (year-on-year + 5.3%), deducting the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 31 million yuan (year-on-year + 2.7%). In 2021, the annual net cash flow increased by 299 million yuan (year-on-year + 3.7%). In 2022, Q1 company achieved an operating revenue of 62 million yuan (year-on-year - 3.7%), corresponding to a net profit attributable to the parent company of 3.92 million yuan (year-on-year - 45%). Since Q3 of the 21st year, the sporadic epidemic in China has continued, and the travel sector has been affected by the largest range and the longest time since the beginning of the 20th year. The performance of the company in the whole year of the 21st year and the first quarter of the 22nd year is in line with previous expectations (the previous report estimated that the annual performance of the whole year of the 21st year was 36 million yuan).
The recovery rate of 70% in 21 years supported by high house prices: the annual OCC in 2021 was 52.12% (67.22% in the same period in 19 years), the average house price was 382 yuan (90% in the same period in 19 years), and the corresponding revpar199 yuan recovered to 70% in 19 years. By quarter, Q1 ~ q4revpar are 199, 284, 226 and 217 yuan respectively. The supply of isolated hotels increased, and the rental rate of 22q1 increased: the rental rate of 22q1 was 59.7%, and the average house price was 350, corresponding to RevPAR 210 yuan, which recovered to 73% of the annual level of 19 years.
The signing of Junlan resort hotel has been accelerated. In the past 21 years, 71 new contracts (17 newly opened) have been signed. At present, there are more than 200 projects under it, and the formation of "four South and one north" Junlan resort circle has accelerated. After the number of high-end resort hotels of the company exceeded 100 in July, the company announced at the brand concept film conference recently (April 22, 2022) that the number of signed management of resort hotels exceeded 200. On the scale, the connotation of the national holiday brand is further deepened: the company released the "Pinzi" brand matrix, added the cooperative brand "Yunlan", and the top integrated brand "Junlan Li". The filling of the cultural core of the national holiday hotel and the interweaving of natural resource endowment are the background color of "not wasting this trip". It is expected that the share of vacation and leisure hotels will accelerate in the post epidemic cycle: vacation and leisure in the United States accounts for 48% (STR, USTA) of hotel sales, while vacation and leisure consumption in China accounts for no more than 30% (STR) of total hotel sales for a long time. From the medium and long-term perspective, China's resort and leisure hotels are in the stage of double improvement of total amount (hotel industry) and structure (vacation share); The operation of resort hotels depends on market cultivation and the scarcity of project resources. When the epidemic situation is fully controlled, the resort sector will release high profit elasticity in the middle and later stage of industry recovery.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. Junting is positioned as a medium and high-end selected hotel, deeply rooted in the Yangtze River Delta. At present, the proportion of Direct stores is relatively high, and it has performance recovery flexibility higher than that of the industry in the recovery period; Junlan hotel is positioned as a luxury resort hotel. The pace of scale expansion has accelerated in recent years. After passing the initial stage of industry recovery, the resort sector has high profit elasticity. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 80 million, RMB 140 million and RMB 190 million respectively (corresponding to the compound growth rate of three-year performance of 71%), and the corresponding PE will be 73, 41 and 30 times. The company has a clear path to realize scale expansion through private brand store expansion and extension M & A, and its core team has rich experience in wine management operation and capital operation; During the epidemic period, the liquor and tourism industry was cleared on a large scale, and Junting realized the counter trend growth from listing to M & A to accelerating the expansion of stores; Above the deterministic safety margin corresponding to the successful single store model, it has a high growth premium in the stage of rapid expansion. Considering that the current performance of the hotel industry affected by the epidemic fails to reflect the actual profitability, it is estimated at 60 times (corresponding to peg0.84) according to the performance of 23 years, and the target price is raised to 101.4 yuan to maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: China's epidemic situation is repeated, the recovery of travel demand is blocked, the macro-economy is down, hotel costs are rising, and the newly signed stores are less than expected.
