\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 568 Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group Co.Ltd(002568) )
Event: the company released] 2021 annual report and the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2021, the company achieved revenue of 2.59 billion yuan (+ 34.7%) and net profit attributable to parent company of 670 million yuan (+ 24.4%), of which 21q4 achieved revenue of 680 million yuan (+ 13%) and net profit attributable to parent company of 100 million yuan (- 32.4%). At the same time, it is proposed to distribute a cash dividend of 5 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares and increase 4 shares for every 10 shares. In 2022q1, the company achieved a revenue of 540 million yuan (+ 4.1%), and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 91.75 million yuan (- 29.9%), lower than the market expectation.
The pre mixed cocktail matrix is perfect, and the product structure continues to upgrade. 1. By category, pre mixed cocktails and essence achieved revenue of 2.29 billion yuan (+33.5%) and 270Million yuan (+37.7%) respectively in 2021. The pre prepared cocktail products cover the alcohol content gradient of slightly drunk, refreshing and strong, which can better meet different consumption scenarios and consumption needs. The alcohol level of slightly drunk series is only 3%, targeting female consumers, and has become the core advantage of the company. The alcohol content of qiangshuang series is 8%, and the taste irritation is high, which helps to expand the male consumer group. In addition, the refreshing series of new products with alcohol content of 5% will become the third sub brand in sales once they are listed; The company launched low sugar “light enjoyment” series and high juice content “local squeeze” series, and the product matrix was further improved. 2. By channel, offline, digital retail and ready to drink channels achieved revenue of 1.81 billion yuan (+ 23.7%), 650 million yuan (+ 70.3%) and 97.02 million yuan (+ 52.4%) respectively. By the end of 2021, the company had 1888 distributors, with a net increase of 310.
The price increase is expected to contribute to the profit elasticity, and the performance appraisal objectives can be achieved. 1. The overall gross profit margin was 65.4%, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.1pp, which remained basically stable. 2. In terms of expense ratio, the sales expense ratio was 21.9%, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.4pp; The rate of administrative expenses was 5.3%, which remained stable; The R & D expense ratio was 2.8%, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.5pp; The financial expense ratio was – 0.8%, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.4pp, mainly due to the increase of interest income higher than interest liabilities. The overall net interest rate was 25.6%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.2pp, and the profitability declined, mainly due to the reduction of government subsidies in the current period. The company has raised the ex factory price of the whole series of products by 4% – 10% in December 2021, which is expected to cover the pressure of rising costs and help motivate the company to achieve the performance evaluation goal in the first year.
The layout of the whole industrial chain officially opened the liquor business. 1. Pre mixed cocktails + essence and fragrances layout, sharing basic research, new product development and supply chain resources. 2. Laizhou distillery was successfully put into operation. The company officially opened the liquor business dominated by whisky, and the feedback of new liquor tasting was good. 3. It is proposed to grant 2.4 million restricted shares to 227 core managers, core technicians and key business personnel of the company, and reserve Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) shares for subsequent incentives. The performance evaluation goal is that the revenue growth rate from 2022 to 2024 will not be less than 25%, 23% and 20% respectively, laying the foundation for the long-term development of the company.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 860 million yuan, 1.12 billion yuan and 1.44 billion yuan respectively, and the EPS will be 1.15 yuan, 1.49 yuan and 1.91 yuan respectively. The corresponding dynamic PE will be 28 times, 22 times and 17 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the promotion of new products is not as expected; Intensified market competition; Food safety risk
