\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 137 Ningbo Boway Alloy Material Co.Ltd(601137) )
Performance Brief
On April 25, 2002, the company released its quarterly report for the first quarter of the year. Q1 achieved a revenue of RMB 3.326 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 58.40%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 136 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 15.47%.
Business analysis
Significant improvement month on month, and new energy may contribute to the main marginal increment. Benefiting from the steady increase of production capacity, the production and sales of 22q1 new materials increased year-on-year, driving the company's profit growth. In the same period, the average price of LME copper was + 18% year-on-year, and the company's revenue increased significantly year-on-year under the rise of volume and price; On a month on month basis, the net profit attributable to the parent company of 22q1 increased significantly by 184% compared with the 48 million yuan in 21q4. Excluding the impairment impact of an advance payment of 39 million yuan in 21q4, the company's performance still improved significantly on a month on month basis. It is expected that the production and sales of 22q1 new materials will not change significantly month on month due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday and the epidemic. We judge that the improvement in performance month on month is mainly due to the new energy sector.
The significant decrease in advance receipts may indicate that the shipment of new energy sector has improved. Affected by the sharp rise of silicon material cost and sea freight, the company's annual PV module shipment in 21 years was only 246mw, and the inventory at the end of the year reached 369mw, resulting in a loss of 80 million yuan of new energy in 21 years. The first quarter report showed that the company's contract liabilities fell to 190 million yuan from 730 million yuan at the beginning of the year, mainly due to the large advance payment received from new energy customers in 21 years, and the corresponding products were successively delivered in 22q1. In the whole year of 21, the revenue of new energy was 770 million yuan, and the contract liabilities of 22q1 decreased significantly. We judged that the shipment volume of new energy Q1 increased significantly, driving the improvement of profits month on month.
The logic of simultaneous rise of quantity and profit remains unchanged.
Volume: the 50000 ton special alloy strip project can realize batch supply in the field of automotive electronics after completing the certification in 22 years. In addition, other rod / wire / filament capacity expansion projects are also gradually implemented. The sales volume of alloy products in 23 years is expected to increase by more than 40% compared with that in 21 years.
Advantages: 1) the downstream of the 50000 ton sector and strip project is mainly used in automotive electronics, and the processing cost will be significantly higher than that in traditional fields; 2) The gross profit per ton of stock production line has increased from 62.68 million yuan / ton in 20 years to 63.01 million yuan / ton in 21 years. The change of transportation cost caliber in 21 years has a negative impact on the gross profit per ton. Excluding this impact, the company's gross profit per ton will increase more significantly, which verifies the high-end trend of downstream demand. The launch of high-end new projects + the high-end demand of stock production lines will jointly drive the company's gross profit per ton.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
It is predicted that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-24 years will be RMB 580 / 790 / 900 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 87.7% / + 35.0% / + 14.5%, realizing eps0.5% 74 / 1.00/1.14 yuan, corresponding to pe13 / 9 / 8 times. Maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
Production expansion is less than expected, downstream sales are less than expected, copper price fluctuation, lifting of restricted shares, exchange rate fluctuation, etc.
