\u3000\u30 Beijing Jingyeda Technology Co.Ltd(003005) 75 Jiangsu Flag Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(300575) )
Events
On April 25, the company released the first quarterly report of 2021. During the reporting period, the company achieved an operating revenue of 697 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 41.22%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 108 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 80.7%. The performance exceeded expectations.
Business analysis
The company's product profit was under certain pressure in the first three quarters of 21 years. The price was raised in the fourth quarter of 21 years. It is estimated that the product price difference in 22 years is better than that in 21 years. According to the disclosure of the annual report, the prices of some raw materials have increased in 21 years, which poses a certain pressure on the cost side of the company. In terms of product prices, the company's core products were in a downward channel in the first three quarters of 21 years, the prices rose in the fourth quarter, and the current prices return to a rational level. Among them, the technical quotation of chlorofluoropyroxyacetic acid is 180000 / T, the technical quotation of Cyhalothrin is 260000 / T, the technical quotation of alkyne is 205000 / T, the technical quotation of spironolactone is 175000 / T, and the technical quotation of loudiurea is 255000 / T.
The production of Huai'an base has returned to normal, and there is still room for further growth in the workshops of Nanjing base and Huai'an base. According to the disclosure of the company's annual report, the projects currently being applied for in Nanjing and Huai'an bases include: expansion projects of ten technical drugs and related products such as cyfluthrin. We expect that the company's Nanjing and Huai'an bases will still have further growth space on the basis of existing workshops in the future. According to the company's announcement, the two new workshops in Nanjing are expected to be put into operation at the beginning of the third quarter of 22 years.
The construction of Anhui base has started, and the long-term growth is good. At present, the company's annual output of 15500 tons of new pesticide technical drugs and related products has been approved by the EIA, with a total investment of about 2 billion yuan. According to the annual report, the current construction progress is 16%. According to the EIA report, public works and four workshops are planned to be built in phase I. We believe that the implementation of Anhui new pesticide project is conducive to the company's further expansion of production capacity and profitability. According to the company's disclosure, it is expected that the production of two workshops in Huaibei will bring performance growth in July 2022.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
The company's price is up and its overall profitability has been enhanced. We predict that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 365 million yuan (+ 4.5%), 446 million yuan (+ 3.7%) and 507 million yuan (+ 3.4%) respectively; EPS is 1.76 yuan, 2.16 yuan and 2.53 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE is 14.19x/11.59x/9.87x respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
Global demand for pesticides is declining; The price of pesticide products fell; The progress of capacity construction and launch is less than expected; The safety and environmental protection inspection affects the normal commencement.
