\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 390 Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) )
Event: in 2021, the revenue reached 2.678 billion yuan, an increase of 68.53% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 280 million yuan, an increase of 7.4% at the same time. Among them, the revenue of 2021q4 was 959 million yuan, with a same increase of 75.02% and a ring increase of 51.89%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 64 million yuan, an increase of 1.40% and a ring increase of 3.80%. In 2022q1, the revenue was 650 million yuan, an increase of 46.16% and a decrease of 32.27%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 09 million yuan, down 86.54% at the same time and 85.38% at the same time. The company’s performance was lower than the market expectation, mainly due to the shortage of chips affecting shipments and the high increase of sales and R & D expenses.
The shortage of chips affected the shipment, and it began to improve gradually in 2022q2. In 2021, the company’s grid connected inverter revenue was 1.954 billion yuan, with a 43% increase, and the shipment volume was about 447200 units. Calculated according to the single 14kw, the corresponding 6.2-6.3gw, with a 35% increase, and the market share increased to 4%. Among them, about 11 Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) 0000 units are shipped in 2021q4. We expect the company to ship 80 Anhui Huamao Textile Company Limited(000850) 00 units in 2022q1, down 39% month on month, mainly due to the epidemic and chip shortage, and the company’s production capacity is not fully utilized. The gross profit margin of 2022q1 inverter is about 33%, which has increased slightly, mainly due to the overseas proportion of 90% and the price increase of 10%. In 2022q2, the price rise continues to be transmitted, the overseas freight is reduced, and the profit may be improved by superimposing the depreciation of RMB exchange rate. By the end of February 2022, the company has introduced new Chinese chip suppliers. We expect that the company’s shipment will increase significantly from 2022q2, with an annual shipment of 7 Shenzhen Quanxinhao Co.Ltd(000007) 50000 units, an increase of about 60% at the same time.
Energy storage is growing brightly, and household photovoltaic is gradually increasing. In 2021, the company’s energy storage inverter revenue was 478 million yuan, an increase of 200% at the same time, and about 60800 units were shipped, accounting for about 12%. In 2022q1, about 30000 sets of energy storage are sold, with a month on month ratio of + 340% / + 50%. The company has been deeply engaged in the European household market and will fully benefit from the outbreak of the European optical storage market. We expect that in 2022, the company will ship 1 Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) 20000 sets of energy storage inverters, gradually increase the volume of superimposed battery pack business, and the proportion of energy storage business will further increase. At the end of 2021, the company began to expand the new business of household photovoltaic, with a layout of 200 counties, strong development capacity, gradual settlement of capital problems and gradual expansion of business volume. In 2022, it plans to develop a scale of 0.5-1gw, becoming a new growth point.
Profit forecast and investment rating: Based on the shortage of chips affected by the epidemic and high management and R & D expenses, we lowered the company’s performance from 2022 to 2024 to 421, 662 and 959 million yuan (673 and 1032 million yuan before 2022 and 2023), a year-on-year increase of + 51% / 57% / 45%, corresponding to 38, 24 and 17 times of PE respectively, and lowered it to the “overweight” rating.
Risk tip: the policy is not as expected, and the market competition intensifies.
