\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 438 Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) )
Events
On April 25, the company released its 2021 annual report and the first quarterly report of 2022. The revenue in 2021 was 63.5 billion yuan, an increase of 44% at the same time; The net profit was 8.2 billion yuan, an increase of 127% at the same time. The revenue of 2022q1 was 24.7 billion yuan, an increase of 132% at the same time; The net profit was 5.2 billion yuan, with an increase of 513% and a ring increase of 130%; Q1 net profit is close to the upper limit of the previous forecast range, and Q1 deducted non net profit slightly exceeds the upper limit of the forecast and slightly exceeds the market expectation.
At the same time, the company released the update of the development plan of silicon material and battery business from 2020 to 2023 and the prospect of the plan from 2024 to 2026, and planned to pay a dividend of 9.12 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares, with a dividend rate of up to 50%.
Performance review
The profitability of silicon materials has been greatly improved, and the production indicators have been continuously optimized. 2022 continues to enjoy huge profits as a bottleneck: the sales volume of polysilicon in 2021 was 107700 tons, an increase of 24% year-on-year; Gross profit margin increased 35PCT to 71.8%. By the end of 2021, the company has a polysilicon production capacity of 180000 tons and a capacity under construction of 170000 tons, of which 50000 tons in Baotou is expected to be put into operation in mid-2022 and 120000 tons in Leshan is expected to be put into operation in 2023. The company’s polysilicon production indicators continued to be optimized, and the average comprehensive power consumption per unit decreased by 12% and steam consumption by 55% year-on-year. We expect that silicon material, as the bottleneck of the industrial chain in which supply exceeds demand, will remain relatively high in terms of product price and profitability in 2022.
The production and sales of battery chips are full, the new technology is progressing smoothly, and the profitability is expected to continue to be repaired in 2022: the sales volume of batteries and components of the company is 35gw in 2021, with a same increase of 58%, and the gross profit margin of single crystal cells is 8.3%. By the end of 2021, the battery capacity was 45gw, and the large-size accounted for more than 70%. The technical indicators of 1GW hjt + 1gwtopcon pilot test line continued to improve and remained a leader in the industry. We expect that in 2022, with the release of silicon supply in the industry, the supply-demand relationship of large-size battery chips will gradually tighten, and the profitability is expected to continue to improve.
The volume of polycrystalline silicon increased at the same time, driving the high growth of Q1 performance: the new capacity of Q1 silicon material of the company climbed smoothly, and the sales volume increased by more than 60% to 48000 tons, and the average sales price is expected to be basically the same as Q4. Considering the downward price of Q1 raw material industrial silicon, it is estimated that the unit profit of silicon material increased month on month, and the profit of superimposed battery chips was repaired compared with Q4, driving the company’s Q1 net profit to increase month on month and hit a new high in a single quarter.
Silicon material production expansion and speed up, with a planned capacity of 8 Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) million tons in 2026: the company released the latest capacity plan, and it is expected that the silicon material capacity will reach 230000 tons by the end of 2022 / 2023, 1 / 60000 tons higher than the upper limit of the previous planning range; At the same time, the company announced that the planned production capacity of silicon materials and battery chips will reach 8 Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) million tons and 130150gw respectively from 2024 to 2026. The leading production capacity planning, strong executive power and sufficient capital and technology accumulation will help the company firmly sit in the absolute leading position of silicon materials and battery chips industry.
Profit adjustment and investment suggestions
According to our latest forecast of the company’s shipment volume, we slightly raised the forecast of net profit from 2022 to 23 to 17.9 billion yuan and 18.4 billion yuan respectively. It is expected that the net profit in 2024 will be 19.2 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS of 398, 4.08 and 4.27 yuan, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the epidemic situation worsened beyond expectations, the scale of industrial expansion exceeded expectations, and the change of technical route exceeded expectations
