\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 483 Fujian Funeng Co.Ltd(600483) )
Event:
Fujian Funeng Co.Ltd(600483) release the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022:
1) in 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 12.077 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.37%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.268 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.18%; In 2021q4, the revenue was 3.054 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.68%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 226 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 66.90%.
2) 2022q1: the company achieved a revenue of 2.534 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.69%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 644 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.94%.
Key investment points:
The growth of gas power substitution + the large-scale increase of sea wind grid connection, and the annual revenue increased by 26% year-on-year. In 2021, the company’s revenue increased by 26.37% year-on-year, of which 2021q4 decreased by 9.68% year-on-year, mainly due to the year-on-year decrease of 13.52% in Q4 (74% in gas and electricity). In terms of business, the revenue growth of gas power and sea wind business is bright. In 2021, the revenue of gas power business was 3.368 billion yuan, an increase of 79.45% year-on-year, mainly because the replacement power realized in the whole year increased by 63% year-on-year to 4.044 billion kwh; The revenue of wind power business was 1.924 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 24.91%, and the installed capacity increased by 80% to 1.809 million KW. Among them, the revenue of Haifeng business was 674 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 191.94%, mainly because the grid connection scale of pinghaiwan f district and Shicheng Haifeng project reached 400000 kW, driving a significant increase of 192% in on grid power.
The sharp increase in coal-fired costs dragged down net profits, and gas power + wind power business + investment income formed a strong support for performance
1) the company as a whole: the sharp increase in coal-fired costs has dragged down profits. In 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 15.18% year-on-year, of which, 2021q4 decreased by 66.90% year-on-year, mainly due to the sharp rise in coal prices year-on-year.
2) by business: the gross profit of gas power business has increased significantly, and the gross profit of wind power business accounts for 61%. In 2021, the gross profit of thermal power business was 426 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 44%, accounting for 20.6% of the company’s gross profit. Among them, the gross profit of coal-fired power generation business was -273 million yuan, 913 million yuan in the same period of last year, and the gross profit of kWh was -0.021 yuan / kWh (the caliber of power generation, the same below), and 0.068 yuan / kwh in the same period of last year; The gross profit of gas and electricity business was 699 million yuan, up from -152 million yuan in the same period of last year, and the gross profit of kWh was 0.222 yuan / kWh, up from -0.054 yuan / kwh in the same period of last year (the increase in gross profit was mainly due to the year-on-year increase in the income of alternative electricity). In 2021, the wind power business achieved a gross profit of 1.268 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.4%, accounting for 61.3% of the company’s gross profit. Among them, the gross profit of land wind business was 798 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.8%, and the gross profit of kWh was 0.325 yuan / kWh, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%; The gross profit of Haifeng business was 471 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 188.5%, and the gross profit of kWh was 0.511 yuan / kWh, a year-on-year decrease of 0.9%.
3) the investment income increased steadily and increased profits. Guoneng Shishi contributed positive income: in 2021, the investment income of the company was 547 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%. Among them, Ningde nuclear power / strait power generation / Guoneng Shishi (formerly Shenhua Funeng) contributed net profits of RMB 232 / 174 / 79 million respectively. The company’s power assets are of high quality, and Guoneng Shishi has still made a profit under the background of the sharp rise in coal-fired electricity price.
2022q1: the power generation of Haifeng increased by 391% year-on-year + the investment income reached a record high, and the net profit increased by 16.9% year-on-year. In 2022q1, the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 16.9% year-on-year, which was – 10.69% higher than the revenue growth. We believe that first, the power generation of Haifeng increased by 353% to 594 million kWh (the power generation accounted for 13.44%), driving the gross profit margin to increase by 3.7pct to 31.87% year-on-year. Second, the investment income of the company reached 285 million yuan, an increase of 78.1% year-on-year, a record high.
Profit forecast and investment rating: Fujian Funeng Co.Ltd(600483) is one of the main power operators in Fujian Province. Under the constraints of increasing coal production and supply and strong coal price supervision, the performance of the company’s coal-fired power generation business is expected to improve; In 2022, the grid connection of Changle offshore area C wind power project is expected to drive the growth of the company’s wind power performance. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 2.376/28.45/3.414 billion respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 9.88/8.25/6.88 times respectively. For the first time, give a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the electricity price has dropped sharply; Coal prices rose sharply; Decline in electricity demand; Risk of policy change; The installed capacity is less than expected; Industry competition intensifies.
