\u3000\u30 Beijing Telesound Electronics Co.Ltd(003004) 13 Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) )
The company issued the annual report of 2021 and the first quarter report of 2022. In 2021, the operating revenue reached 15.356 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.64%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.114 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.66%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was RMB 2.060 billion, an increase of 11.57% year-on-year. In the first quarter of 2022, the operating revenue was 3.124 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.08%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 507 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 34.39%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was RMB 474 million, a year-on-year decrease of 38.49%.
Key investment points:
Steady growth of core business. The company's core business mango TV Internet video business (advertising + members + operators) maintained steady growth, with an operating revenue of 11.261 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.29%. Among them, 118 new customers were found in the advertising business, and the total number of mango TV soft advertising, hard advertising, programmed advertising and other advertising brands exceeded 1000, with a revenue of 5.45 billion yuan, an increase of 32% year-on-year, especially the investment amount of "sister riding the wind and waves in the second quarter" was the highest in the industry; Through the head variety shows such as the second season of sister riding the wind and waves and the brother cutting through thorns, the conversion rate of members has been continuously promoted. In 2021, the member income was 3.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%, and the number of effective members was 50.4 million, an increase of 39.5% compared with the end of 2020. Due to the promotion activities, the arppu value of users has declined; In terms of operator business, it carried out in-depth strategic cooperation with Migu culture, a subsidiary of China Mobile, focusing on large screen business and 5g innovation business, realizing a revenue of 2.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.17%.
In addition, the company made every effort to accelerate the development of Xiaomang app, a trendy domestic content e-commerce platform, and promoted the peak daily activity of Xiaomang app to reach 1.26 million in 2021, with a content e-commerce business revenue of 2.157 billion yuan by creating heavy parties such as "Xiaomang seed flower night" and "Xiaomang new year goods Festival".
The advantages of content production are prominent. Mango TV currently has 26 variety show production teams, 29 film and television production teams and 34 "Xinmang plan" strategic studios. In terms of variety shows, mango TV launched more than 40 self-made variety shows in 2021. Among them, new and original variety shows such as "brother through thorns", "our hot life" and "goodbye to love" are well arranged. Integrated N-generation IP such as "sister riding the wind and waves", "escape from the secret room" and "detective" have strong market appeal and brand effect. In terms of film and television dramas, mango TV launched 170 various film and television dramas in 2021, including 55 key film and television dramas and 84 Mini dramas. The "monsoon theater" launched during the year showed 9 high-quality short dramas, including "I'm fine in a foreign land" and "wolf Hunter". At the same time, it continued to explore the field of micro short dramas and build medium and short video clusters.
Actively explore new business. Relying on high-quality content such as "big detective" and "big escape from the chamber of secrets", the company extends IP from online to offline, creates a new brand m-city, is committed to building an offline live entertainment complex, and establishes industry benchmarks in script creation and copyright protection, DM training, offline entity operation, etc. In addition, the company has also explored and tried new technologies such as 5g +, digital collection, virtual human and VR / ar.
The epidemic affects the program scheduling, and Q2 is expected to improve. In 2022, due to the repeated covid-19 epidemic affecting the content production progress in Q1, the schedule of key variety shows in Q1 was delayed. At the same time, coupled with the relatively high base in 2021q1, the operating revenue and net profit decreased in varying degrees. However, key variety shows and film and television dramas such as Q2 "sound never stops" and "ride the wind and waves 3" will be launched one after another. According to the data of Guduo film and television, the cumulative broadcast volume of "shengshengbuxi" has reached 250 million times in only one day. The launch of "shengshengbuxi" and "riding the wind and breaking the waves 3" is expected to drive the performance recovery of the company in Q2.
Investment advice and profit forecast: at present, China's online video field has begun to enter the stage of cost reduction and efficiency increase. The company takes the lead in realizing stable profits among China's mainstream video platforms, and its business development is sustainable. In 2021, the company's original variety shows and comprehensive N-generation programs can create good broadcasting results, driving the significant growth of advertising, investment attraction and the number of members. In the short term, although the promotion activities led to the decline of member arppu, the company officially raised the member price from January 2, 2022, which is expected to drive the recovery of member arppu value. In addition, as a state-owned media platform, the company takes into account the commercial and social effects of content, maintains strong sensitivity and stricter content control while actively innovating content, and may be less affected by the risk of content policy.
In terms of new business, Xiaomang e-commerce, a vertical content e-commerce platform, has reached a peak dau of 1.26 million in continuous brand building, which is expected to provide positive profit contribution to the company in the future. The company is also actively exploring the landing and application of new technologies such as virtual host, 5g +, NFT and VR.
It is estimated that the EPS in 2022 and 2023 will be 1.35 yuan and 1.59 yuan, with the closing price of 28.92 yuan on April 25, corresponding to 21.47 times and 18.22 times of PE, which will be raised to the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the epidemic situation repeatedly affects the production and launch of programs; Loss of platform users; The effect of advertising investment attraction is less than expected
