\u3000\u30 Beijing Zznode Technologies Co.Ltd(003007) 69 Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) )
The company is a leading enterprise of lithium iron phosphate cathode, and its market share ranks among the top two in China. Since its inception, the company has focused on the layout of nano materials, and its main products are nano lithium iron phosphate cathode. In 2021, the company's market share in China's lithium iron phosphate enterprises reached 20%, ranking second. The company cooperates closely with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) and other customers, and has established joint venture factories with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) .
Driven by the power and energy storage market, the demand for lithium iron phosphate cathode has increased rapidly. While the subsidy for Chinese Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles is declining, CTP and other new technologies improve the energy density of the system, and the high cost-effective lithium iron phosphate is favored by more and more vehicle enterprises. The energy storage scenario has high requirements on battery cost and service life, and lithium iron phosphate has also become the mainstream scheme. We estimate that the global demand for lithium iron phosphate will reach 1.77 million tons in 2025, with an average annual compound growth rate of 46%. In 2021, the total market share of China's lithium iron phosphate Market Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) , Hunan Yuneng exceeded 42%, and the market share of other manufacturers was less than 10%, with obvious leading advantages.
The company's original liquid phase process has both cost and performance advantages, and binds key customers for collaborative development. In terms of production, the company created the original liquid phase process, which significantly reduced the production energy consumption; At the same time, the liquid phase method makes the raw materials mixed evenly, has high compatibility with low-grade raw materials, and can reduce the cost of raw materials. In terms of performance, the liquid phase method can realize atomic mixing, and the sintering temperature is low to avoid material agglomeration. The particle size of the product is smaller, the distribution is more uniform, and the consistency and cycle life are prominent. In terms of customers, the company cooperates closely with the head battery enterprise, and supplies Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) products every year, accounting for about 40-60% of its demand. At the same time, the company has also built joint venture factories with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) and it is expected that with the continuous implementation of the joint venture factories in 2022, it will help to consolidate the company's market share.
Look forward to the layout of lithium manganese iron phosphate and lithium supplement, and take the initiative to upgrade the competitive track. Lithium manganese iron phosphate is a new development direction of lithium iron phosphate. Its energy density is 10-20% higher than that of lithium iron phosphate, and has excellent low-temperature performance. Compared with ternary materials, lithium manganese iron phosphate has the advantages of low price, high safety and long cycle life. The company is one of the enterprises with the largest patent layout of lithium manganese iron phosphate. The downstream of product sample delivery has been highly recognized. Now it has a capacity of 440000 tons, of which 110000 tons are expected to be put into operation by the end of 2022. In addition, the company also invested in the construction of 45000 tons of new lithium replenishing agent project, which is expected to be put into operation in 2023.
Profit forecast and Valuation: the company is a leading enterprise in China's lithium iron phosphate Market, with significant product and cost advantages. The company's projects such as new phosphate and lithium supplement are expected to enjoy technical dividends. We expect the net profit attributable to the parent company to be RMB 1.67/2.16/2.82 billion from 2022 to 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 109 / 29 / 31% and PE of 23 / 18 / 14 times respectively. Combined with absolute and relative valuation, we believe that the reasonable valuation range of the company is between 470547 yuan, corresponding to the 22-year dynamic PE range of 25-29 times, with a premium of 9% - 27% relative to the current stock price of the company. "Buy" rating is given for the first time.
Risk tip: the sales volume of electric vehicles is lower than expected; The risk of intensified industry competition; The production of new products was less than expected.
