\u3000\u30 Beijing Zznode Technologies Co.Ltd(003007) 63 Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) )
Event: in 2021, the revenue reached 3.312 billion yuan, an increase of 58.92% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 474 million yuan, an increase of 48.96%. Among them, 2021q4 achieved a revenue of 1.009 billion yuan, an increase of 37.55% and a ring increase of 18.63%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 111 million yuan, an increase of 2.69% and a decrease of 11.26%. In 2022q1, the revenue was 1.102 billion yuan, an increase of 78.72% and a ring increase of 9.28%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 164 million yuan, with an increase of 54.97% and a ring increase of 48.33%. The performance was in line with market expectations.
The chip has strong supply guarantee ability and the market share has increased rapidly. In 2021, the company’s revenue of grid connected inverters was 2.843 billion yuan, an increase of 43.45% at the same time, and 66 Shenzhen Huakong Seg Co.Ltd(000068) 0000 units were shipped. Calculated according to the power of a single unit of 20kW, it corresponds to 13-14gw, an increase of about 60% at the same time, the corresponding market share is about 9-10%, and an increase of about 2pct at the same time. Among them, there are 18 Shenzhen Zhongheng Huafa Co.Ltd(000020) 0000 units sold in 2021q4, corresponding to 3.7-3.9gw. We expect that 2022q1 grid connected inverter will achieve a revenue of about 900 million yuan, with a shipment of 18 Shenzhen Zhongheng Huafa Co.Ltd(000020) 0000 units, corresponding to 3.6-4gw, an increase of 46% at the same time. We expect that the shipment of 2022q2 company will continue to increase by 20-30% month on month. In the whole year, the company has strong chip supply guarantee capacity. We expect that the shipment will double, and the market share will increase to 12% +, with a market share target of 20% in 2025, with strong growth.
The profit of 2022q2 inverter continues to improve. The company’s R & D expenditure in 2021q4 was 71 million yuan, an increase of 121.9% and that in 2022q1 was 52 million yuan, an increase of 100%. The R & D investment continued to strengthen the competitiveness of products. In 2022q1, the company’s comprehensive gross profit margin was 29.5%, with a ring increase of 0.2pct. The reasons were as follows: 1) the proportion of overseas sales increased to about 58%; 2) In January, overseas prices increased by 10 PCT. We expect the gross profit margin of 2022q2 to increase by 3 ~ 6pct month on month, for the following reasons: 1) depreciation of RMB exchange rate; 2) The overseas price increase of 10 PCT in January 2022 + the price increase of 5 ~ 10 PCT in China in March 2022 will be fully reflected in 2022q2; 3) Shipping costs fell. The company’s European revenue in 2022q1 accounts for about 42%, and will continue to benefit in the future. The demand for optical storage in Europe will burst.
Energy storage welcomes explosive growth and has sufficient orders on hand. In 2021, the company’s energy storage inverter realized a revenue of 176 million yuan, an increase of 370.85% at the same time, accounting for 5.3% of the revenue, an increase of 3.5pct year-on-year, and shipped 3 China Tianying Inc(000035) 000 units. We expect that the energy storage inverter in 2022q1 will realize a revenue of RMB 100150 million, with a shipment of 2 Shenzhen Tellus Holding Co.Ltd(000025) 000 units, with a month on month ratio of + 267% / + 70%. The actual orders on hand in 2022q1 exceed 50000 units, and the demand in 2022q2 continues to burst. We expect the order receiving volume to exceed 2022q1. We expect that if the logistics is stable throughout the year, the energy storage output may exceed 200000 units, a year-on-year increase of five times
Profit forecast and investment rating: Based on the company’s strong ability to guarantee the supply of chips, the increase of overseas selling prices and the strength of energy storage business, we maintain the previous profit forecast. We expect the net profit attributable to the parent company in 20222024 to be RMB 1.05/16.5/2.32 billion respectively, a year-on-year increase of + 122% / + 58% / 40%, corresponding to 40 / 25 / 18 times of PE. The company is given 55 times of PE in 2022 and 233 yuan of target price, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the policy is less than expected and the competition intensifies.
