\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 309 Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) )
Q1 performance is in line with expectations, optimistic about the future multi base layout direction of the company, and maintain the "buy" rating
On April 25, the company released its report for the first quarter of 2022. Q1 achieved a revenue of 41.784 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.44%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.374 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.84%. We maintain the profit forecast for 20222024. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 20222024 will be 22.108 billion yuan, 26.760 billion yuan and 30.133 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding EPS will be 7.04, 8.52 and 9.60 yuan / share respectively. The current share price will be 11.0, 9.1 and 8.1 times PE respectively. We continue to be optimistic about the company's move towards a global chemical giant and maintain the "buy" rating.
The cost of raw materials rose sharply, Q1 performance decreased year-on-year and increased slightly month on month
In 2022q1, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine stimulated a sharp rise in the price of crude oil, and the prices of the main raw materials purchased by the company, such as pure benzene, propane and butane, rose accordingly. According to the data of Baichuan Yingfu, the price of Q1 pure benzene was 7921 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 9.18% and a year-on-year increase of + 43.99%; The average price of Q1 propane Saudi Aramco CP was US $807 / ton, with a month on month ratio of - 1.34% and a year-on-year increase of + 36.09%; The average price of Q1 butane Saudi Aramco CP was US $805 / ton, with a month on month increase of + 1.26% and a year-on-year increase of + 41.48%. The price of raw materials rose sharply and the cost side was under pressure, resulting in a year-on-year decline in Q1 performance. On a month on month basis, the pressure on the cost side was well controlled, and the gross profit margin in Q1 was 20.55%, up 3.46pcts on a month on month basis. According to the business data, the sales volume of polyurethane and new materials decreased month on month, and the production and sales of petrochemical sector recovered; The average price of polyurethane products decreased slightly, and the price of petrochemical sector decreased significantly, from 8001 yuan / ton in 2021q4 to 6266 yuan / ton in Q1. The price of new materials sector increased significantly, from 20503 yuan / ton in 2021q4 to 24128 yuan / ton.
The company's multi base new production capacity continues to be distributed, and its growth is still expected
On April 8, the company announced that Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) (Penglai) will build high-performance new material integration and supporting projects in Penglai Industrial Park, mainly building 900000 tons of PDH, 500000 tons of polyether, 400000 tons of PO / CHP, 300000 tons of polypropylene, 300000 tons of EO, 300000 tons of EOD, acrylic acid and ester and other products. The planned investment is 23.1 billion yuan, which is expected to be put into operation in June 2024. In addition, according to the Management Committee of Ningdong energy and chemical industry base, on April 20, Ningdong municipal company delivered 300000 tons of MDI separation project site to the construction and Transportation Bureau of Ningdong Management Committee and Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) (Ningxia). The company plans to provide raw materials for downstream enterprises around Ningdong. We continue to be optimistic about the continuous layout of the company's multi base new production capacity, and the company's growth is still expected.
Risk tip: the production capacity is lower than expected, the downstream demand slows down, and the product price drops sharply.
