\u3000\u30 Beijing Zznode Technologies Co.Ltd(003007) 38 Guangdong Aofei Data Technology Co.Ltd(300738) )
Event overview
1) the company released its 2021 annual report, and achieved an operating revenue of 1.205 billion yuan in 21 years, with a year-on-year increase of 43.35%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 144 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.67%, and the net profit not attributable to the parent company was 153 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.08%.
2) the company released the first quarterly report of 2022. During the reporting period, the operating revenue was 270 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.05%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 42 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.13%, and the net profit not attributable to the parent company was 31 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 31.09%.
Analysis and judgment:
The performance of Q4 in 21 and Q1 in 22 was slightly affected by the epidemic, equity incentive fees and data center construction
In 2021, the revenue and EBITDA continued to grow positively, mainly due to the gradual launch of data center projects in Beijing, Langfang and other places. The revenue in North China exceeded 600 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 76.83%, which became the main driver of the company’s performance growth. Affected by the epidemic, the overseas IDC business of aofei international was greatly impacted in the second half of 2021, the expansion of new regions was limited, and the original business also declined significantly due to the adjustment of customer business. The company has taken the means of increasing revenue and reducing expenditure and obtaining new customers to revitalize overseas assets. The company is expected to gradually reverse the dilemma in 2022. The overall operation of 2022q1 company has improved compared with 2021q4. In international business, the recurrence of the epidemic has affected the engineering construction, logistics and transportation, business communication and other links of the data center industry to varying degrees. The share based payment expenses arising from equity incentive, the financial expenses arising from the increase in financing of new data center projects, and the increase in depreciation and amortization also have a great impact on the net profit. During the reporting period, the net profit deducted from non parent company decreased year-on-year.
The scale expansion and equity incentive have a slight increase in the cost rate, and the increase of financing scale has raised the level of financial cost rate
During the whole year of 2021, the expense rate was 14.64%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.49 PCT, and the expense rates of sales / management / Finance / R & D were 1.60% / 2.75% / 3.38% / 6.91% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of -0.06 / + 0.11 / + 0.82 / + 1.61 PCT respectively. In 2022, Q1 sales / management / Finance / R & D expense rates were 1.61% / 3.72% / 3.46% / 9.42% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.67 / + 0.89 / + 0.81 / + 4.45pct respectively. Affected by business expansion and equity incentive, the rate of sales, management and R & D expenses increased slightly. In addition, the increase of interest expenditure and financial expenses under the influence of the increase of financing scale and the new leasing standards led to a large increase in the rate of financial expenses.
In response to the national development layout of “counting from the east to the west”, gradually release production capacity in the future
In 2021, the company completed the construction of Langfang xunyun expansion, Guangzhou Ali project phase II and other projects, and started the construction of Guangzhou Nansha, Langfang Gu’an, Tianjin Wuqing, Yunnan Kunming and Jiangxi Nanchang. By the end of 2021, the company had 12 self built and self operated data centers in Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Haikou, Nanning and Langfang, with 19900 self built and self operated total cabinets, a year-on-year increase of 24%;
The data center of the project under construction has more than 50000 cabinet reserves, which are concentrated in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao and the capital cities of central and western provinces. It actively responds to the national development strategy of “counting from the east to the west”. We believe that the reserve area has better bargaining power and higher relative value than other areas. In addition, with Hong Kong as the core, aofei international continues to build the layout of overseas nodes and realize IP interconnection and resource coverage with mainstream operators in Internet hot spots around the world through submarine cable resource network.
Actively invest in distributed photovoltaic power generation projects under the “double carbon” strategy, which is expected to grow in the long term under the supply side reform
Based on the “double carbon” strategy, the company has expanded its new energy business segment. The company has established a new energy team and invested in the establishment of a holding subsidiary, Guangdong aofei new energy Co., Ltd., which takes the investment and operation of distributed photovoltaic power generation projects as the main business direction, selects Langfang xunyun data center as the strategic pilot, and gradually and orderly carries out the signing and construction of external commercial distributed photovoltaic power generation projects. By the end of 2021, through half a year, aofei new energy had signed 35 development projects in Guangdong, Guangxi, Jiangxi and other provinces, with an overall contracted installed capacity of nearly 100MW. Under the green and low-carbon development strategy of the data center, the data center is expected to enter the “new cycle” of supply side reform, and the company’s “carbon neutralization” and new energy development strategy are expected to obtain high-quality growth space in the long-term industry reshuffle.
Investment advice
Considering the impact of the epidemic, the profit forecast is lowered. It is expected that the revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be adjusted from 21.24/30.11/n/a to 1.522/20.53/2.647 billion yuan respectively, and the earnings per share will be adjusted from 0.63/0.91/n/a to 0.52/0.70/0.95 yuan respectively, corresponding to the closing price of 16.37 yuan / share on April 25, 2022, and the PE will be 31.5/23.3/17.3 times respectively. Maintain the “overweight” rating.
Risk tips
Downstream orders are less than expected; The collection is less than expected; Goodwill impairment risk; Inventory falling price reserve risk; Systemic risk.
