\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 786 Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) )
Core view
The results in the first quarter were in line with expectations. In the first quarter, the revenue was 736 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.8%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 92 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.7%; Deduction of net profit not attributable to the parent company was 85 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.3%. According to the company's announcement, the year-on-year decline in profit in the first quarter was mainly due to the increase in cost and gross profit caused by the rise in the price of raw materials, as well as the increase in R & D investment in pre research projects and new designated projects.
The gross profit margin is under pressure, and the expense rate increases due to the increase of R & D investment. The gross profit margin in the first quarter was 33.4%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.2 percentage points, which is expected to be caused by the rise in the price of raw materials. During the first quarter, the cost rate increased by 1.8 percentage points year-on-year, of which the R & D cost rate increased by 2.9 percentage points year-on-year. It is expected that the R & D investment of new projects will increase more. The net cash flow from operating activities in the first quarter was - 158 million yuan, a decrease of 271 million yuan compared with the same period of the previous year, mainly due to the decrease in collection in the current period.
There are abundant projects in hand, and the sales of new products and fixed points continue to be promoted. In the first quarter, the company's main business lighting control system, motor control system, on-board electrical appliances and electronics business achieved revenue of 368 million yuan / 162 million yuan / 145 million yuan respectively, a year-on-year increase of - 5.1% / - 3.0% / + 18.1%. The company has many projects in hand, and the conversion of research projects to production has been steadily promoted. In 2021, the company obtained 59 new designated projects, and the sales volume in the whole life cycle is expected to be about 55 million; In 2022, 55 new product conversion projects are planned, with customers covering Byd Company Limited(002594) , Weilai, Xiaopeng, Hongqi, Chang'an, Weichai, Cummins, etc. In recent years, the company has continued to increase investment in new products, and the sales of new products such as AGS, USB, cabin intelligent light source and national VI emission system of commercial vehicles have gradually increased. The sales of the above new products reached 415 million yuan in 2021, an increase of 36.5% over 2020. In terms of fixed-point of new products, based on the technical accumulation of chassis controller, the company has gradually cultivated many chassis domain control related products such as DCC (adaptive suspension controller) and ASC (air suspension controller), and has obtained more than 10 fixed-point projects from customers such as Byd Company Limited(002594) , Xiaopeng and Geely; AGS, USB and other products cooperate with GAC Toyota, Jaguar Land Rover, FAW Hongqi and other customers. As new products gradually enter the ramp up stage of mass production, the company's sales structure is expected to be further optimized and open up new growth space.
Products gradually penetrate into the field of new energy and continuously improve the supporting value of bicycles. In 2021, the company obtained 22 designated new energy vehicle projects, an increase of about 50% over 2020; In 2021, the sales revenue of new energy products was 158 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 135.8%. The company has accelerated the cooperation with Volkswagen, Xiaopeng, Geely, Byd Company Limited(002594) and other customers in the field of new energy, continuously expanded the scope of supporting products and improved the supporting value of single vehicles. At present, the maximum sales of single vehicles exceeds 1300 yuan / vehicle. With the continuous deepening of the promotion and application of AGS, intelligent light source, chassis controller and other products, the supporting value of the company's single car is expected to continue to improve.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
It is predicted that the company's EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.33 yuan, 1.71 yuan and 2.17 yuan respectively. The comparable company is a company related to the automotive electronics and intelligent vehicle industry chain. The average PE valuation of the comparable company in 22 years is 38 times, and the company is given a valuation of 38 times in 22 years. The corresponding target price is 50.54 yuan, maintaining the buy rating.
Risk tips
The supporting volume of lighting control business is lower than expected, the motor control business is lower than expected, the on-board electrical and electronic business is lower than expected, and the shortage of automobile chips continues.
