\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 884 Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) )
Key investment points
It is planned to build a 300000 ton negative electrode integration project, which will be introduced into the optimized production line. This 300000 ton lithium-ion battery negative electrode material integration base project will be constructed in two phases. The planned annual production capacity of phase I is 200000 tons, and the planned annual production capacity of phase II is 100000 tons. The construction cycle is expected to be 16 months, and the total investment in fixed assets is about 9.7 billion yuan (excluding working capital). The project will cover all processes including raw material processing, low-temperature modification, graphitization, carbonization and finished product processing, and the process route will be verified in the production line of the company's existing production base, especially Baotou integrated production base.
The negative pole integrated capacity is increased, making full use of local energy advantages. At present, the negative pole material capacity of the company is 120000 tons, the graphitization supporting capacity is 42000 tons, and the output of 60000 tons of negative pole (supporting 52000 tons of graphitization) in Baotou phase II of Inner Mongolia will be reached in 2022q3. It is expected that the effective negative pole capacity of the company will reach 180000 tons by the end of 2022, and the self supply rate of graphitization will exceed 50%. At present, the company's planned capacity includes Sichuan Meishan 200000 ton negative pole integration project, of which phase I 100000 tons will be put into operation by the end of 2022, and Yunnan Anning 300000 ton negative pole integration project. Inner Mongolia, Sichuan, Yunnan and other regions are rich in coal power and hydropower resources. The company can make full use of the advantages of local low electricity price. With the construction and implementation of negative electrode capacity, the optimization of graphitization process and the improvement of self supply rate, the company's market share and profitability are expected to be further improved.
The upstream and downstream layout has been deepened to effectively ensure product production and shipment
In 2021, the company led the world in the shipment of artificial graphite and worked closely with lges, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , ATL, Byd Company Limited(002594) and other first-line battery manufacturers. The company continued to promote in-depth cooperation with upstream and downstream core enterprises. In 2021, the company was bound with Jinzhou petrochemical, a backbone oil refining enterprise in China, to ensure the supply of needle coke. On April 20, 2022, it was announced that Byd Company Limited(002594) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , ATL, PetroChina Kunlun capital, etc. increased the capital of the negative electrode company, and the company will cooperate with it in the supply of upstream materials and downstream batteries.
Profit forecast and valuation
The company is a leading supplier of negative electrode materials in the world, and the LCD polarizer business is running well. For 22-24 years, the net profit attributable to the parent company of the company was RMB 3.375 billion, RMB 4.466 billion and RMB 5.325 billion, corresponding to EPS of RMB 1.58, RMB 2.08 and RMB 2.48 per share respectively, and the PE corresponding to the current stock price was 12, 9 and 8 times respectively. Maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: price changes in raw materials and graphitization, sales volume of new energy vehicles not meeting expectations, and intensified market competition
