Key investment points
Market review of transportation and social service industry this week
Among the 31 shenwanyi industries, the cumulative growth of transportation and social service industries this week (April 16-april 22) were – 3.2% and – 6.7% respectively, ranking 11th and 27th respectively; The CSI 300 index rose by – 4.19%.
Among the 134 Shenwan secondary industries, this week (April 16-april 22), the cumulative increases of hotel catering, tourism, scenic spots and airports were – 8.83%, – 8.41% and – 3.19% respectively, ranking 128th, 127th and 47th respectively.
Covid-19 epidemic tracking
Further relax travel restrictions overseas: 1) Japan: lift the entry ban of 106 countries; 2) United States: the travel restriction order of 89 countries will be revoked from April 18; 3) Thailand: it will be fully open to foreign tourists from May 1. Nucleic acid testing and isolation measures will not be carried out for entry. 4) Singapore: from April 26, further unsealing measures will be implemented, including that the number of social gatherings and family visitors will no longer be limited, 100% of employees can come back to work, and the number of guest workers allowed to go out on holidays will increase to 50000. 5) Myanmar: international commercial flights will be resumed from April 17 to shorten the entry isolation time.
Diagnosis of covid-19 pneumonia: 1) China: from April 16 to April 22, China reported 154807 local confirmed cases (including asymptomatic infections), mainly in Shanghai, Jilin, Jiangsu, Heilongjiang, Hebei, Zhejiang, Anhui, Jiangxi, Shanxi, Shandong, Guangdong, Yunnan, Henan and other places. 2) Global: from April 16 to April 22, there were about 4.97 million confirmed cases of covid-19 pneumonia overseas, a month on month increase of – 18%; There were 19311 new deaths, down – 9% month on month. As of April 22, 2022, there were about 507 million confirmed cases of covid-19 pneumonia and 6.23 million deaths worldwide. 3) United States: from April 16 to April 22, about 330000 new cases of covid-19 pneumonia were diagnosed in the United States, up 27% month on month; A total of 2797 deaths were added, down 24% month on month. As of April 22, 2022, the cumulative diagnosis of covid-19 pneumonia in the United States was about 82.63 million and the cumulative death was about 1.02 million. 4) UK: from April 16 to April 22, about 190000 new cases of covid-19 pneumonia were diagnosed in the UK, down 7% month on month; There were 1957 new deaths, up 18% month on month. As of April 22, 2022, about 22.1 million cases of covid-19 pneumonia in the UK have been diagnosed and 170000 cases have died.
Covid-19 vaccination: 1) China: according to the official website of the National Health Commission, as of April 22, the country had reported about 3.33 billion doses of covid-19 virus vaccine; At the same time, the third needle was introduced throughout the country to strengthen needle vaccination. About 2.34 million doses of covid-19 vaccine were vaccinated every day from April 16 to April 22, a month on month decrease of 12.0%. 2) Global: according to ourworldindata, as of April 22, about 11.5 billion doses of covid-19 virus vaccine had been vaccinated worldwide, and about 65% of the world’s population had received at least one dose of vaccine.
Airport & aviation: China’s flight volume bottomed out and rebounded, and overseas travel demand continued to pick up
Industry: according to the vertical and horizontal data of air travel, from April 16 to April 22, the daily average number of flights executed by Chinese and international routes was about 3567, a year-on-year decrease of 74% in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of – 40% and – 75% respectively in 2020 and 2019, and an increase of 11% compared with last week.
Secretary for aviation: from April 16 to April 22, according to the data of the flight crew, the average daily flight numbers of Air China, China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, Chunqiu, Jixiang and Huaxia were 298, 537, 274, 115, 32 and 129 respectively, with the average of +2.3%, +14.0%, -8.1%, +37.0%, +18.8% and +22.6% respectively compared with the previous Sunday.
Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) 2021 annual report: in 2021, the company realized an operating revenue of 11.77 billion yuan / + 16.5%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of – 500 million yuan / – 5.0%. In Q4, the company achieved an operating revenue of 2.64 billion yuan / – 10.0%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of – 450 million yuan, and a net profit of 06 million yuan in 20q4.
Airport: from April 16 to April 22, according to the data of flight control, the average daily takeoff and landing sorties of Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) , Shanghai Pudong, Shanghai Hongqiao, capital airport, Beijing Daxing and Shenzhen Bao’an were 147, 30, 5, 153, 140 and 366 respectively, up from – 32%, + 5%, + 36%, + 9%, + 16% and + 29% respectively last week.
Overseas travel demand continued to pick up: according to OAG data, the number of air ticket reservations between Britain and the United States from April to August was + 700% year-on-year; From April 4 to 10, the number of American air passengers recovered to 93% in 2019, including 94% in the Chinese market and 86% in the international market.
Tax exemption: the tax-free discount of China’s free outlying islands was flat month on month, and the passenger volume of Haikou airport rebounded month on month
1) Hainan flight volume tracking: from April 17 to April 23, the average daily inbound and outbound flights of Sanya Phoenix Airport and Haikou Meilan International Airport were 56 and 174 respectively, with a month on week increase of + 77% and + 31% respectively, and a year-on-year increase of – 84% and – 61% respectively in 2021; In the same period, the average daily passenger volume of Haikou airport was (expected) 17384, with a month on month increase of + 40% and a year-on-year increase of – 73%.
2) tax free channel discount tracking: on Sunday, the tax-free discounts of direct mail, China free outlying islands, Haifa control, China travel investment, China export service and Shenzhen free outlying islands were basically the same month on month.
3) China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) 2021 annual report & 2022 first quarterly report: in 2021, the company realized an operating revenue of 67.676 billion yuan / + 28.67%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 9.654 billion yuan / + 57.23%; In 21q4, the company’s revenue is 18.177 billion yuan / + 4.11%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is 1.163 billion yuan / – 60.92%. 22q1, the company realized an operating revenue of 16.782 billion yuan / – 7.45%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.563 billion yuan / – 9.99%, of which the revenue in March was 3.7 billion yuan / – 49%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 160 million yuan / – 81%..
Investment advice
1) recommend Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) , Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) : the current valuation has the configuration cost performance, and the marginal travel demand in China is upward. Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) has signed a contract with LV, and the company is expected to usher in the double repair of performance and valuation.
2) three major airlines are recommended: the proportion of international transport capacity is high, the supply of the industry is uncertain, the speed is reduced, the supply and demand mismatch is expected to occur after the demand recovers, and the company is expected to show greater profit elasticity.
3) recommendation Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) : the performance is relatively stable under the advantage of low cost, which is expected to benefit from the first recovery of leisure tourism demand.
4) recommendation Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) : China’s transport capacity accounts for a large proportion, its performance is the first to recover, its profit performance is more stable before the opening of the door, its long-term growth is high, and intercontinental routes are expected to become a new growth point.
5) recommendation Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) : obvious scale advantage, obvious improvement in management, accelerated overseas recovery, and is expected to usher in a period of rapid growth.
6) recommend Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) : leading industry of chain hotel group β， The light management mode opens up the incremental space of the sinking market. Under the three-year goal of 10000 stores, the number of hotels opened in 21-23 years is expected to reach 30%.
7) recommendation Zhejiang Ssaw Boutique Hotels Co.Ltd(301073) : Junting Direct stores account for a high proportion, Junlan Resort Hotel accounts for a high proportion, the demand repair stage is expected to show high elasticity, and the medium-term scale is expected to show high growth rate.
8) recommendation China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) : under the comprehensive layout of outlying island + online + Airport + city, the company still has great growth space, and the expansion of outlying island duty-free stores in 22 years is expected to bring new catalysis.
Risk tips
The recovery of the epidemic was less than expected, the demand of the industry was less than expected, the oil price and exchange rate fluctuated sharply, the tax-free policy changed, and the competition in the tax-free industry intensified.
