Pig prices jump or have short-term distortion. Pay attention to the adjustment of pig prices after the festival. There is no need to be overly pessimistic about the height of pig prices in the later stage
As of April 22, the national average selling price of pigs was 14.25 yuan / kg, up 1.66 yuan / kg month on month. Affected by the policy of Guangdong Province officially suspending the entry of slaughtered pigs outside the province into Guangdong on April 14 (officially implemented from May 1, 2022), Guangdong pig breeding enterprises took the lead in raising the price, driving pigs from south to north to raise the price. In the short term, the “May Day” holiday will enter next Sunday, and the short-term consumer side will be boosted.
We believe that the supply pressure of pig price in 2022q2 industry is still relatively significant, and the rhythm of price rise will not be achieved overnight. It is expected that the industry will still be in the state of head average loss from April to may, and some inferior production capacity will exit. We believe that there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the cyclical pig price at present, and the actual de conversion range of production capacity will be reconfirmed in the later upward stage of pig price. In addition, after the mismatch between supply and demand is switched, the ability of inflation to raise pig prices should also be considered under the background of supply shortage.
Zhou’s view: the reversal of the pig cycle is imminent, and food prices continue to rise due to multidimensional catalysis
In 2022, the pig cycle is about to reverse, and the layout of production capacity is in the period of de industrialization. Recommend Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , which has the leading breeding cost; Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) , with accelerated recovery of production indicators and reduced costs; Cycle reversal drives Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , with excellent performance flexibility; Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) , which has the advantages of breeding cost and capital; Relevant beneficial object Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) . Grain prices continued to rise due to multi-dimensional catalysis, and the landscape of the planting chain continued. It is suggested to pay attention to the target of grain price increase Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation And Development Co.Ltd(601952) . Highlight the advantages of transgenic technology Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) ; And Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , whose fundamentals will be improved; Relevant beneficial objects Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) , Winall Hi-Tech Seed Co.Ltd(300087) , Syngenta (to be listed).
The safety margin of the dynamic insurance sector appears, and the industry space may usher in accelerated capacity expansion. It is recommended that China’s leading enterprise of animal subunit vaccine Pulike Biological Engineering Inc(603566) .
The price of raw materials in the upper reaches rises, the demand in the lower reaches is booming, and the concentration of feed market in the middle reaches continues to increase. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading feed enterprise Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) .
Market performance this week (4.18-4.22): Agriculture outperformed the market by 1.02 percentage points
This week, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.87% and the agricultural index fell 2.85%, outperforming the market by 1.02 percentage points. In terms of sub sectors, the pet food sector led the rise, with an increase of 4.91%. In terms of individual stocks, jiawo shares (+ 20.90%), Shandong Xiantan Co.Ltd(002746) (+ 13.14%) and Hefei Fengle Seed Co.Ltd(000713) (+ 11.47%) led the gains.
Price tracking this week (4.18-4.22): pig, white feather chicken, bass, prawn and bulk Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices rose month on month this week
Pig breeding: according to the monitoring of Boya Hexun, on April 22, 2022, the average price of three yuan pigs abroad was 14.27 yuan / kg, up 1.59 yuan / kg from last week; The average price of piglets was 27.67 yuan / kg, up 2.53 yuan / kg from last week; The average price of white striped meat was 18.78 yuan / kg, up 1.91 yuan / kg from last week. On April 22, the price ratio of pig feed was 3.76:1. According to wind data, on April 22, the average profit of self breeding head was -376.61 yuan / head, compared with + 155.09 yuan / head; The average profit of purchased piglets is -157.61 yuan / head, with a month on month increase of + 156.42 yuan / head.
White feather broiler: according to wind data, the average chicken fry this week was 3.18 yuan / feather, with a month on month ratio of + 52.15%; The average price of wool chicken was 9.24 yuan / kg, a month on month increase of + 3.94%; The breeding profit of hairy chicken was 2.95 yuan / feather, with a month on month ratio of + 0.64 yuan / feather.
Risk tip: the macro economy is down and the consumption remains depressed; Uncertainty of animal diseases in winter, etc.
