Core recommendation
Key points of basic chemical industry
Core assets ( Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) , Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) );
Titanium dioxide ( Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) ), carbon fiber ( Weihai Guangwei Composites Co.Ltd(300699) ), zeolite / OLED ( Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) ), pesticide ( Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) , Anhui Guangxin Agrochemical Co.Ltd(603599) ), compound fertilizer ( Xinyangfeng Agricultural Technology Co.Ltd(000902) ), etc.
Key points of petrochemical industry
OPEC + joint production reduction forms the bottom support of oil price, but we still need to pay attention to the impact of non OPEC production (Canadian heavy oil, Brazil and Central Asia), global macroeconomic downside risk and further fermentation of trade risk on oil price. It is recommended to accelerate the integrated construction of polyester industrial chain and enter into large-scale refining and excellent private refining enterprises with C2 / C3 light hydrocarbon cracking ( Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , satellite chemistry, Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) );
Pay attention to Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) .
Weekly industry update
This week, the price index of chemical products rose, the oil price of core raw materials fell, LPG gas fell, LNG gas rose and coal price rose; The prices of aromatics, phosphorus chemicals, chemical fertilizers and chlor alkali increased.
This week, China’s chemical price index CCPI + 1.4%; The price of core raw materials is – 4.5%, imported lpg-2.1%, domestic LNG + 4.6%, bituminous coal + 9.1%.
On the raw material side, the price of some aromatic products increased; On the product side, the prices of some products of phosphorus chemical industry, chemical fertilizer and chlor alkali rose, while the prices of some products of rubber and fluorine chemical industry fell.
Oil prices fell this week, geopolitics was mixed, and the international energy agency lowered its demand forecast.
The settlement price of oil fell from US $111.4/barrel to US $107.4/barrel, down from US $106.4/barrel this week; US commercial crude oil inventory was 414 million barrels (Mom – 1.9%), and the number of US crude oil drilling wells was 549 (mom + 0.2%).
On the supply side, according to Longzhong information, the situation in Russia and Ukraine is temporarily anxious, and new negotiations have not yet started. At the same time, the situation in Libya has led to a decline in exports, the negotiation on the Iranian nuclear issue has stalled, and the potential increase in supply is expected to be unable to be released. On the demand side, according to Longzhong information, the international energy agency reduced the crude oil demand this year by 260000 barrels / day to 99.4 million barrels / day. The spillover effect and epidemic caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine are the main reasons, and the demand worries caused by the recent Asian epidemic continue. In terms of policy, according to Longzhong information, the Federal Reserve has started the interest rate increase cycle, which is good for the US dollar and bad for oil prices in the long term, but the impact effect is limited in the short term. Geopolitically, according to Longzhong information, the situation in Libya and the Iran issue do not show bad attributes, but there is great uncertainty in the situation in Russia and Ukraine. On the one hand, the military conflict in eastern Ukraine is still continuing, on the other hand, Ukraine expressed its willingness to negotiate unconditionally with Russia in Mariupol, mixed with good mood.
Natural gas price tracking:
Price tracking: natural gas in Europe and the United States has declined this week, with NBP – 16.52%, TTF – 11.35%, HH – 0.86% and AECO – 11.07%. In terms of spot, HH spot was + 12.65% month on month; Canada AECO spot chain – 0.35%, Europe TTF spot chain – 9.11%. In terms of price difference, the average spot arrival price of LNG in Northeast Asia was 8754 yuan / ton, a month on month ratio of – 13.40%, and the average sales price at the terminal was 7998 yuan / ton, a month on month ratio of + 10 yuan / ton (+ 0.13%).
Inventory tracking: according to EIA data this week, as of April 15, the US natural gas inventory was 1450 billion cubic feet, with a month on month ratio of + 53 billion cubic feet (month on month ratio of + 3.79%, year-on-year ratio of – 22.80%), lower than the five-year average. According to the data of the European Natural Gas Infrastructure Association, as of April 15, the European natural gas inventory was 106464 billion cubic feet, with a month on month increase of + 41.335 billion cubic feet (month on month increase of + 4.04%, year-on-year decrease of – 3.54%).
China price: China’s LNG began to rise this week. As of April 21, the quotation of LNG main origin was 7164 yuan / ton, up + 4.51% from last week; Consumer prices rose simultaneously. As of April 21, the average price of major LNG consumer places was about 7893 yuan / ton, up + 3.98% from last week. The quotation of LNG terminal is 8446 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of – 2.26%.
View update of key chemicals:
Price rise and fall of chemicals:
The important products with the highest price increase this week are liquid chlorine + 133%, o-nitrochlorobenzene + 15%, DMF + 12%, acrylic acid + 7%, soda ash (light + 6%, heavy + 2%), glufosinate + 5%. Important products with the highest price decline this week are tetrachloroethylene-25%, trichloroethylene-25%, methylamine-14%, acetic acid-13%, pbat-10%, chloroacetic acid-8%, mma-8%, hexanediamine-8%, dimethyl carbonate dmc-7%, diuron-6%, etc.
Price rise and fall of upstream chemicals of new energy:
Chemicals related to the photovoltaic industry chain: industrial silicon flat, trichlorosilane + 4%, soda ash (light + 6%, heavy + 2%), vinyl acetate flat, EVA (photovoltaic grade) + 2%, etc.
Chemical products related to lithium battery industry chain: phosphate rock (30%) is the same, phosphoric acid + 1%, lithium carbonate (industrial grade – 2%, battery grade – 1%), iron phosphate is the same, industrial ammonium phosphate (73%) + 4%, lithium hexafluorophosphate – 5%, etc.
Part of the downstream began to be extracted, and the overall supply was limited, pushing up the price of liquid chlorine.
Liquid chlorine (Shandong) rose 133.3% to 1400 yuan / ton this week. On the demand side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, this week, the supporting downstream methane chloride of chlorine consumption in Zibo, Shandong started to be imported, but the receiving mood of other chlorine consumption products is general. Affected by the epidemic in Hebei, individual downstream enterprises of chlorine consumption are in the state of shutdown, the downstream demand in Shanxi is general, the operation level of downstream products in Northeast China is not high, and the downstream demand of chlorine consumption in East China is acceptable; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the overhaul of chlor alkali enterprises in Dongying area was completed at the weekend, and the supporting downstream started simultaneously, and the export of liquid chlorine was stopped. In addition, the downstream chlorobenzene supporting enterprises in Weifang was started, and the export of liquid chlorine was reduced. In addition, the enterprises in Zaozhuang were shut down, and there were enterprise overhaul in houliaocheng area. By April 21, the overhaul of Zibo No. 1 alkali plant was completed, and the overall supply of liquid chlorine in the province was limited, The load of some alkali plants in Shanxi has increased, and the overall liquid chlorine supply in East China is not much.
Downstream demand is general, most suppliers maintain, and the price of o-nitrochlorobenzene rises.
This week, o-nitrochlorobenzene rose 14.6% to 11800 yuan / ton.
On the demand side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, due to the impact of public health events, the downstream pharmaceutical and dye industries have general demand, and the pesticide industry purchases on demand; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, most suppliers in the current market are expected to repair their devices, and production is expected to resume at the end of April and early May 2022. A supplier from Anhui is expected to return to the market at the end of April and receive orders externally. The market supply is slightly insufficient, forming a positive situation.
The enthusiasm of downstream procurement rebounded, the load of production units was low, and the price of acrylic acid increased.
Acrylic acid (East China) rose 6.9% to 13150 yuan / ton this week. On the demand side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the price of downstream acrylate market rises with the support of cost, and the enthusiasm for raw material procurement has rebounded; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the current supply of goods is tight, the low price of goods holders is obviously reluctant to sell, the unit load of production enterprises is generally low, the operating load of CNOOC Huizhou acrylic acid and ester unit is low, the rotation repair of Formosa Plastics acrylic acid and ester unit, the shutdown of Wanzhou Petrochemical Acrylic Acid and ester unit and the shutdown of Jiangmen Qianxin butyl acrylate unit.
The downstream enthusiasm is fair, the supply side performance is weak, and the price of soda ash rises.
The price of soda ash rose this week. Soda ash (light, East China) rose 6.0% to 2650 yuan / ton, and soda ash (heavy, East China) rose 1.8% to 2850 yuan / ton. On the demand side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the overall demand for soda ash in China has not changed much at present, the enthusiasm of downstream users is OK, and some customers who just need to make up orders. Specifically, some flat glass enterprises have cold repair, photovoltaic glass enterprises are basically under normal operation, and the demand for upstream heavy alkali is relatively stable. The downstream daily glass of light alkali, pyrosulfite, Paohua alkali, sodium bicarbonate, metallurgy, printing and dyeing The demand for soda ash in water treatment and other industries changes little; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, there are still temporary stops, resumption of production and maintenance of individual manufacturers this week. Anhui hongsifang temporary stops for three days this week. The double ring plant in Hubei has low production for some reason, and the construction of other enterprises continues the previous state. Several low-yield manufacturers have weak performance in raising production, and the overall supply side has a slightly weak performance. In addition, due to the impact of sufficient orders waiting to be issued, the manufacturers’ reluctance to sell has increased, resulting in a favorable supply side.
Downstream orders are urgent, spot supply is tight, and the price of glyphosate continues to rise.
Glyphosate rose 5.2% to 202500 yuan / ton this week. On the demand side, according to Yingfu of Baichuan, there is strong demand outside China, and individual purchasers are eager to place orders, resulting in good demand; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the current orders of China’s mainstream manufacturers are scheduled to June 2022, and the spot supply in the market is tight.
Risk warning: the price of raw materials fluctuates, and the downstream demand is less than expected.
