Industry changes this week
1) cement: the national cement market price this week was 509.8 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of 0.30% and a year-on-year increase of 10.7%. This week, the national cement storage capacity ratio was 64.04%, with a month on month decrease of 0.03pct and a year-on-year increase of 14.72pct. The cement delivery rate was 63.7%, up 1.2 percentage points month on month and down 22.6 PCT year on year.
2) glass: the national average price of white glass this week was 205322 yuan / ton, up 0.33% month on month and down 10.3% year on year. The glass inventory was 61.82 million heavy boxes, up 3.76% month on month and 151.81% year-on-year; The utilization rate of glass production capacity this weekend was 71.80%, up 0.85% year-on-year.
Investment strategy this week
Cement sector: on the cost side, the executive meeting of the State Council held on the 20th pointed out that through nuclear capacity increase, production expansion and new production, 300 million tons of coal capacity will be added this year to promote clean and efficient utilization of coal and strengthen the construction of reserve facilities. Using the market-oriented and legalized method to guide the coal price to operate within a reasonable range, the downward trend of coal price in the future will be conducive to reducing the cost of cement enterprises and further thickening the profit. At present, although the current round of epidemic is not over, some parts of East China have resumed work and production, and cement shipments have improved month on month. It is suggested to pay attention to Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) .
Real estate industry chain: in March 2022, China’s real estate sales, investment, new construction and completion were – 17.7%, – 2.4%, – 22.2% and – 15.5% year-on-year, further expanding the decline compared with the data from January to February. From January to March, China’s real estate sales, investment, new construction and completion totaled – 13.8%, + 0.7%, – 17.5% and – 11.5% year-on-year. Although the investment data from January to march is positive year-on-year (0.7%), it has fallen sharply compared with 3.7% from January to February. When the decline of other data has expanded to double digits, the reason for the positive growth of investment data is that on the one hand, the policy of guaranteed housing delivery is resolutely implemented, and all projects have resumed work and production; On the other hand, it is due to the sharp rise in the price of raw materials. We suggest that we should focus on the attention of ‘ Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) 372 Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) , Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) etc.
The average price of glass fiber is 5850 yuan / week, and the average price of glass fiber is 6856 yuan / week; The average price of winding direct yarn was 6267 yuan / ton, unchanged month on month; The average price of electronic yarn was 8875 yuan / ton, unchanged month on month. By the end of March, the industrial inventory was 290300 tons, up 93000 tons year-on-year and 47000 tons month on month. In March, China’s export volume of glass fiber yarn and products was 209600 tons, an increase of 48.30% year-on-year. In March, China’s export volume of glass fiber roving was 90100 tons, an increase of 62.41% year-on-year.
Glass: this week, China’s float glass market is stable and small, and the demand in most regions is average. In the middle and lower reaches, there is a strong wait-and-see, and individual factories make small adjustments according to their own conditions. During the week, some restrictions in parts of North and East China were lifted, and downstream processing plants must replenish goods, which still needs attention. Pay attention to Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) etc.
Risk tips: the completion was not as expected, the real estate fell faster than expected, and the industry collaboration was broken.
