Key investment points
The epidemic dragged down the year-on-year decline of social zero in March, and the performance of compulsory consumption was stable. On April 18, the National Bureau of statistics released the data of social zero in March 2022. In that month, China achieved a total of 3.42 trillion yuan / - 3.5%, which is due to the impact of China's epidemic on the consumer market again. The impact of the closure of the epidemic in Jilin Province, Shanghai, Shenzhen and other places changed from positive to negative, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.2pct lower than that from January to February. In terms of channels, online channels increased slightly in March, with online retail sales of physical goods of 888.6 billion yuan / + 2.7%. Under the background of strengthening epidemic control in many places, the pressure of logistics and express delivery made the growth rate of online channels drop by 10.9 PCT month on month in March; The offline retail sales of offline physical goods in that month was about 2.2 trillion yuan / - 3.9%, and the growth rate turned negative from 4.3% from January to February. In terms of categories, the consumption of grain, oil and beverage is relatively compulsory, and the consumption performance is stable. The CPI of grain, oil and beverage in March is limited to + 12.5% / + 4.6pct (compared with the growth rate from January to February) and + 12.6% / + 1.2pct (compared with the growth rate from January to February); The consumption of optional categories was seriously affected by the epidemic, with cosmetics, jewelry and textile clothing up to - 6.3%, - 17.9% and - 12.7% year-on-year respectively.
This week, the textile and garment sector outperformed the market by 8.28pct, with Anhui Korrun Co.Ltd(300577) , Shanghai Sanmao Enterprise (Group) Co.Ltd(600689) , Jiangsu Hanvo Safety Product Co.Ltd(300952) rising ahead. This week (04.18-04.22), SW textile and garment sector rose 4.09%, CSI 300 fell 4.19%, and textile and garment sector outperformed the market by 8.28pct. Among them, SW textile manufacturing sector rose 4.85%, and SW clothing and home textile rose 5.81%. From the valuation level of the sector, the industry PE calculated by SW textile and garment overall method (TTM, excluding negative value) is 16.18 times, which is lower than the average value in recent one year. The top five companies in the textile and garment sector were: Anhui Korrun Co.Ltd(300577) (+ 25.64%), Shanghai Sanmao Enterprise (Group) Co.Ltd(600689) (+ 24.07%), Jiangsu Hanvo Safety Product Co.Ltd(300952) (+ 20.24%), Shanghai Dragon Corporation(600630) (+ 19.78%), Zhejiang Giuseppe Garment Co.Ltd(002687) (+ 18.54%).
This week, the household goods sector outperformed the market by 0.2pct, with Yotrio Group Co.Ltd(002489) , Zhejiang Walrus New Material Co.Ltd(003011) , Elegant Home-Tech Co.Ltd(603221) rising ahead. This week (04.18-04.22), SW household goods sector fell 3.99%, CSI 300 fell 4.19%, and household goods sector outperformed the market by 0.2pct. From the valuation level of the sector, the current industry PE calculated by SW household goods overall method (TTM, excluding negative value) is 22.74 times and SW furniture is 21.85 times, which is lower than the average value in recent one year. The top five companies in the furniture sector were: Yotrio Group Co.Ltd(002489) (+ 12.72%), Zhejiang Walrus New Material Co.Ltd(003011) (+ 5.92%), Elegant Home-Tech Co.Ltd(603221) (+ 5.61%), Vohringer Home Technology Co.Ltd(603226) (+ 5.47%), Hhc Changzhou Corp(301061) (+ 4.24%).
Important industry news:
1. In March, the society released zero furniture to meet the challenge, and July may be the turning point. On April 18, the National Bureau of statistics released the main data of the total retail sales of social consumer goods in Q1 2022. According to the data, in 2022q1, the total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 108659 billion yuan / + 3.3%. Among them, the retail sales of furniture consumer goods reached 33.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.1%. In March 2022, the total retail sales of social consumer goods was 3423.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.5%. Among them, the retail sales of furniture consumer goods reached 12.6 billion yuan / - 8.8%. July may usher in an important turning point of recovery: in Southwest China, Chengdu home life exhibition, summer ordering meeting of Bayi Furniture City and the sixth Sichuan furniture summer ordering meeting of Taiping garden will all be held in July. In South China, Shenzhen fashion home design week, Shenzhen furniture exhibition and international famous furniture (Dongguan) exhibition will also be held in late July. At that time, the repressed market demand of Chinese home will be fully released, and the exhibition economy will activate the consumption potential and stimulate the vitality of the home market.
\u3000\u30002. Barabara launched the world's first digital spokesperson for children. On April 20, balabalabala officially announced the brand spokesperson "Guyu", which is the world's first digital person for children. As the fashion industry gradually enters the meta universe, more brands take the meta universe / virtual human as the carrier of content output and enter the track of younger marketing. Gu Yu is also an IP with the dual attributes of independent children's fashion blogger and virtual idol in addition to barabarabara's spokesperson. Barabarabara hopes to create an independent children's fashion digital person through IP. She can break through the boundary between reality and virtual and deduce human imagination into reality in a more innovative form.
\u3000\u30003. UNIQLO 2022 interim report: North America and Europe are growing rapidly. Recently, fast retailing group, the main company of UNIQLO, disclosed the interim financial report of 2022. In the six months ended February 28, 2022, the total revenue was 1.22 trillion yen, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%; The total profit was 189278 billion yen, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%. The rapid sales profit growth was mainly due to the good performance of UNIQLO in Southeast Asia, South Asia, Oceania, North America and Europe; UNIQLO's business and Gu's revenue and profit in Japan and greater China both fell. In the first half of fiscal year 2022, the revenue and profit in Japan fell sharply, with a total revenue of 442.5 billion yen, a year-on-year decrease of 10.2%; Operating profit totaled 80.9 billion yen, down 17.3% year-on-year. In the first half of the year, the same store sales decreased by 9.0% year-on-year. E-commerce sales also decreased slightly year-on-year, to 72.4 billion yen, a slight decrease of 1.9% year-on-year; However, it increased by about 40% compared with the same period in fy2020. The profits generated by North America and Europe account for about 20% of UNIQLO's international market; As the pillar source of UNIQLO's international market, Greater China accounted for 55% of its operating profit, but its income and profit continued to narrow due to the epidemic.
Important announcement of the company: [Li Ning] the latest operation status in the first quarter of 2002; [361 °] operating summary for the first quarter of 2002; [ Luolai Lifestyle Technology Co.Ltd(002293) ] annual report for 2021 and first quarter report; [ Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) ] suggestive announcement on the listing and circulation of some issued shares before IPO and strategic placement shares of IPO.
Investment suggestion: for the textile manufacturing sector, on the one hand, the policy is favorable. On April 21, the Ministry of industry and information technology and the national development and Reform Commission jointly issued the guiding opinions on the high-quality development of industrial textiles industry, proposing to cultivate high-quality enterprises gradiently and support the merger and reorganization of advantageous enterprises. By 2025, the industrial added value of Enterprises above the designated level will increase by about 6% annually, and 3 ~ 5 enterprises will enter the first echelon of industrial textiles in the world, On the other hand, the RMB devalued. On April 22, the onshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar fell below 6.5, a new low since August 2021. It is good for textile enterprises with a high proportion of exports and US dollar assets. Shenzhou International is recommended to pay attention to Zhejiang Jasan Holding Group Co.Ltd(603558) ; For the brand clothing sector, it is suggested to pay attention to Anta sports and Li Ning, the sports clothing leaders with dominant competition pattern, as well as Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) , Bosideng, Ningbo Peacebird Fashion Co.Ltd(603877) . In addition, with the smooth promotion of the large single product strategy, it is recommended to recommend Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) , the domestic beauty leader with better than expected performance of 22q1.
Risk tips: 1 Real estate sales did not meet expectations; 2. The epidemic situation in China continues to occur repeatedly; 3. Intensified brand competition; 4. The epidemic situation in Southeast Asia may affect the production capacity release of the textile manufacturing industry; 5. The exchange rate fluctuates greatly.
