Key investment points
General view and recommendation of the industry: Securities Companies: frequent policies, optimistic about the long-term development of securities companies. ① A series of policies to promote the construction of securities companies and capital markets (insurance funds, new regulations on income swaps, comprehensive accounts and the full implementation of the registration system) have been introduced one after another, which is beneficial to ficc, wealth management and the industrial chain of large investment banks. ② The uncertainty of long-term profit center has increased: the wealth management business has continued to grow, and the channels, products and investment advisers have benefited deeply; The scale of derivatives maintained rapid growth, new products were launched one after another, the superposition system continued to be standardized, and ficc constituted the core increment; The construction of multi-level capital market has accelerated, and the science and innovation board and the Beijing stock exchange have brought new increment. At the same time, the reform of the registration system has also brought dividends to the stock business system. ③ There is a great contrast between the fundamentals and policies of securities companies and the valuation. The profits of securities companies continue to reach a new high. Relative to roe, they are close to the level of the previous bull market (20152016), but their valuation is still at the bottom 1 / 4 of the historical valuation. We are optimistic about the long-term allocation value of securities companies. Insurance: the inflection point of property insurance boom is established, and attention is paid to the catalysis of real estate policy end repair to sector valuation repair. Affected by the high base of the same period and the spread of the epidemic all over the country, the debt side of 1q22 listed insurance companies performed poorly, which basically met the previous low market expectations. Under the joint influence of the dislocation of the Spring Festival and the high base, the average value of 1q22 listed insurance companies is expected to decline by more than 25%, and Guoshou and Ping An are slightly better than their peers. In terms of property insurance, the basic trend is good, which is significantly better than life insurance. The inflection point of premium growth in the industry has reached. The volume and price of auto insurance premiums in 1q22 single quarter are expected to maintain a double-digit rapid recovery growth of 10% + and the comprehensive cost rate of PICC auto insurance is expected to remain within 98% due to the benign competition in the industry and the strength of market fee rate after flood. Since March, the real estate sector has shown signs of strength, which is expected to alleviate the market’s concerns about the asset quality of domestic insurance enterprises. Soochow Bank of Africa’s recommended sectors: securities, insurance, recommended stock combinations [China stock market news], [ China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) ] (Hong Kong stocks), [China Property Insurance] and [far east Hongxin].
Important changes and comments in the industry: 1) the first quarter report of China stock market news in 2022: revenue + 10.6% year-on-year, net profit attributable to the parent company + 13.6% year-on-year: we believe that ① the overall revenue side is in line with expectations, the market share of securities brokerage business continues to increase, the market share of securities two financing business is flat compared with 2021q4 and increased compared with 2021q1, the activity of the fund market decreases, and the front-end application and redemption fee decreases, dragging down the company’s fund business income; ② The cost side R & D expenditure exceeds the expectation; ③ The substantial increase in trading financial assets resulted in a significant increase in investment income, and the non recurring income exceeded expectations. 2) New China Life Insurance Company Ltd(601336) 2022q1 performance pre reduction announcement: we believe that ① the decline center of net profit attributable to parent company is 75%, corresponding to 1q22 net profit attributable to parent company is 1.576 billion yuan, and the profit decline is mainly due to the high floating profit base of investment realized in the same period; ② The spread of 1q22 epidemic throughout the country has dragged down the recovery rhythm of new orders. We expect the new business value (NBV) of 1q22 to decline by 60% year-on-year; ③ Launch the excellent plan and focus on team upgrading. 3) The general office of the State Council issued the opinions on promoting the development of individual pension: we believe that ① the pilot of individual pension policy has fully learned the lesson of “applauding but not applauding” from the previous pilot of tax deferred pension insurance, which is expected to enhance the enthusiasm of the masses; ② Pension finance stars in the sea, the exploration of individual pension account system opens up incremental space, and commercial banks, public funds and insurance companies usher in development opportunities; ③ It is estimated that the annual cumulative individual pension contribution scale will be 2151.2 billion yuan by 2030, which has great growth space and potential.
Risk tips: 1) the macro economy is less than expected; 2) Policy tightening inhibits industry innovation; 3) Market competition intensifies risks.
