Key investment points:
The cornerstone of the development of new energy vehicles and the upgrading of strategic position under the new infrastructure
Charging is not only the mainstream way of energy supplement for new energy vehicles, but also an important part of the new energy vehicle industry. The rapidly growing new energy vehicle market has increased the demand for charging piles. In 2021, the number of charging piles in China reached 2.617 million, a year-on-year increase of 55.7%. As an important part of the new infrastructure, the strategic position of charging pile will be upgraded under the current main line of steady growth.
With the acceleration of vehicle electrification, the construction and operation of charging pile will usher in a new wave
The construction of charging piles is usually ahead of the development of new energy vehicles. At present, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is higher than expected, and the construction and operation scale of charging piles will also be accelerated in the future. According to our calculation, according to the 3:1 vehicle pile ratio at the construction end, it is estimated that the number of charging piles will reach 9.3 million by 2025, and the number of CArG in four years will be 37.3%. The cumulative investment scale of charging pile construction is 167.8 billion yuan. The service fee at the operation end is 0.5 yuan / kWh. It is estimated that the service fee revenue will reach 72.9 billion yuan by 2025, and the four-year CAGR will be 48.2%.
The trend of high-voltage fast charging brings new opportunities for the development of charging piles
High voltage fast charging can effectively solve the mileage anxiety and fast charging problems of electric vehicles, and has become a new trend in the evolution of energy supplement technology in the future. The corresponding 800V high-voltage platform models and high-voltage high-power overcharge network are in the accelerated layout stage. Considering that the maturity of the charging pile end is higher than that of the vehicle end, we believe that the high-voltage fast charging pile will take the lead in large-scale construction and bring new needs such as high-voltage charging module and relay; In addition, increasing the proportion of fast charging can improve the profitability of operators and accelerate the arrival of profit inflection point of operators.
Investment advice
Under the background of the continuous improvement of the penetration rate of new energy vehicles and the continuous increase of new infrastructure under the main line of steady growth, the strategic significance of the charging pile industry continues to improve, and the construction and operation of charging piles are expected to usher in a new round of development wave:
(1) construction end. High voltage DC fast charging has become an important solution to the public charging problem. At present, the high voltage fast charging technology of charging pile has been basically available, which brings new requirements for charging pile hardware such as high voltage DC charging module and high voltage DC relay. Related objects: Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) (charging pile equipment supplier), Hongfa Technology Co.Ltd(600885) (high voltage DC relay), Shijiazhuang Tonhe Electronics Technologies Co.Ltd(300491) (charging module).
(2) operation end. The rapid growth in the number of new energy vehicles has accelerated the inflection point of the profit cycle of charging pile enterprises, continuously improved and optimized the operation pattern of charging piles, and the head operators will enter the profit return period. Related objects: Qingdao Tgood Electric Co.Ltd(300001) (charging operation tap), Zhejiang Wanma Co.Ltd(002276) .
Risk tips
The sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected, the development of high-voltage fast charging technology is lower than expected, industrial policy risks and market competition continue to intensify.
