Key investment points:
24.7% of the new energy exhibition cycle is delayed, which will not affect the new energy innovation cycle. The 2022 Beijing auto show, originally scheduled to be held on April 21, was postponed, but the release and listing of new products of various brands were not seriously affected. In March 2022, Byd Company Limited(002594) destroyer 05, velai et7 and Zhiji L7 were listed, Byd Company Limited(002594) Han DM-I and dm-p were officially released and pre-sale was opened, and Byd Company Limited(002594) seals, Byd Company Limited(002594) frigates 07 and avita 11 entered the stage of product publicity. In the middle of the month, the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) passenger cars was 461000, up 117.5% year-on-year and + 43.5% month on month; The penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles reached 24.7%, reaching a new high.
The industry is greatly affected by the epidemic, and the resumption of main engine factory promotes the recovery of industrial chain. China’s automobile industry was greatly affected by the epidemic, and the output of FAW was the most affected in March; SAIC’s shutdown generally began at the end of March and early April, and the lost output is expected to be clearly reflected in the Shanghai data in April; Tesla Shanghai plant stopped production on March 16 and 17, and then stopped production again on March 28. On April 19, 8000 employees of Tesla Shanghai plant came to their posts and officially resumed production. Musk said at the Q1 earnings conference that the output of Q2 of Shanghai plant will be the same as that of Q1 and achieve higher output in Q3 and Q4. It is expected that the resumption of work and production of Tesla, SAIC, FAW and other main engine plants will drive the recovery of China’s industrial chain, and each main engine plant will also increase capacity utilization to make up for the lost output during the epidemic.
The concentration of brand models has decreased, and Tesla & Byd Company Limited(002594) strong still remains. Compared with February 2022, in March, new energy vehicle enterprises CR2 decreased by 8.8pct, Cr5 decreased by 1.8pct and CR10 decreased by 3.9pct; For new energy vehicles, Cr5 decreased by 2.3pct, CR10 decreased by 4.4pct, Cr15 decreased by 2.2pct and Cr20 decreased by 0.3pct. We believe that under the influence of market adverse factors such as terminal price rise and covid-19 epidemic, Tesla and Byd Company Limited(002594) show strong market resilience and the sales volume is the most stable, while the sales volume of new energy vehicles of many other automobile enterprises fluctuates greatly, resulting in large changes in the concentration in the past two months. In addition, we believe that the collective price increase will be a stress test and reshuffle for the new energy vehicle market. With the expansion of Tesla and Byd Company Limited(002594) vehicle production capacity, the market concentration is expected to be further improved.
The monthly sales of 11 new energy models exceeded 10000. According to the wholesale volume data of the ride Association, in March, Tesla modely, Model3, Byd Company Limited(002594) song DM, Qin plusdm-i, Han EV, dolphin, yuan plus, Wuling Hongguang miniev, Chery QQ ice cream, Benben EV and ideal one sold more than 10000 new energy models for 11 models. In addition, Byd Company Limited(002594) Tang DM, Xiaopeng P7 and GAC aiony sold more than 9000 vehicles per month, and Byd Company Limited(002594) Qin plusev and Chery EQ sold more than 8000 vehicles per month. In March, Byd Company Limited(002594) destroyer 05, velai et7 and Zhiji L7 were listed, Byd Company Limited(002594) Han DM-I and dm-p were officially released and pre-sale was opened, and Byd Company Limited(002594) seals, Byd Company Limited(002594) frigates 07 and avita 11 entered the product publicity stage. Ideal L9 was officially released, and the launch of heavy new energy models will greatly expand the product matrix and create popular models in batch.
In the pure electric passenger car market, compared with December of last year, the total share of grade A00 / A0 decreased slightly, and grade B increased greatly. In March, the wholesale volume of pure electric passenger vehicles was 371000; Among them, the wholesale volume of A00 is 119000, accounting for 32%; The wholesale volume of A0 class is 55000, with a share of 15%; The wholesale volume of class A is 82000, accounting for 22%; Class B wholesale volume is 113000, accounting for 30%. Compared with December 2021, A00 and class a share accounted for -0.87pct and -1.69pct respectively, A0 share was + 0.59pct, and class B share was + 3.60pct.
May will usher in a new round of replenishment inventory peak for dealers. In 2021, the supply of Q3 auto chips tightened, the wholesale performance continued to be weaker than that of retail, the dealer inventory coefficient decreased, fell below the warning line for several consecutive months, and began to pick up after reaching the lowest point in September. In March this year, the automobile industry was seriously affected, and the inventory coefficient decreased slightly, but it was still higher than 1.5. We believe that when the national automobile production suffers obvious losses from March to April, the dealer’s inventory will be consumed rapidly, and a new round of inventory replenishment peak will be ushered in May.
Industry rating and investment strategy: the resumption of production and work of the main engine plant drives the industrial recovery, and the rebound is the first push of Tesla industrial chain. In March 2022, the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles reached 24.7%, the automotive industry accelerated reform, the gross profit margin of Tesla and new forces continued to increase, and the performance of Tesla’s domestic suppliers generally increased rapidly; Tesla wave brings vehicle valuation revaluation, NOA function redefines, smart cars trigger an arms race, hardware stacking, and there is a large space for domestic substitution. Maintain the “recommended” rating of the automotive industry.
Three main lines are recommended:
1. Tesla industrial chain & parts: Tesla manufacturing Revolution: 4680ctc + integrated die casting. Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) , Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Huada Automotive Technology Corp.Ltd(603358) , Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co.Ltd(002472) .
2. Intelligent driving & Automotive Electronics: intelligent definition of automobile, arms race, hardware stacking and domestic substitution usher in historical opportunities. Anhui Tongfeng Electronics Company Limited(600237) .
3. Complete vehicle: Tesla wave brings the revaluation of complete vehicle valuation & strong model cycle OEM. It is recommended to recommend Byd Company Limited(002594) , Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) , Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) , pay attention to Xiaopeng automobile, ideal automobile, Weilai automobile, Geely Automobile, Yutong Bus Co.Ltd(600066) .
Risk tip: if the overseas epidemic continues to deteriorate, it will affect China’s automobile export; Focus on the risk that the company’s performance is less than expected; The risk that the demand growth is less than expected; Risk of continuous rise in raw material prices and freight; The risk that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is lower than expected.
