Industry perspective
In 2022q1, the proportion of chemical industry allocated by public funds rebounded significantly month on month. At present, the chemical sector is still in an important position in the allocation industry of public funds. In 2022q1, the proportion of public funds allocated to the chemical industry increased by 1.1% month on month to 7.8%, and the allocation level is still at a historical high in the past 10 years. From the market value of heavy positions, the top five targets are Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) , Guanghui Energy Co.Ltd(600256) , Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) ; The top five targets of position reduction are Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Sailun Group Co.Ltd(601058) , Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) , Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) . In terms of the number of funds held: the number of positions of public funds increased month on month. The top five are Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Guanghui Energy Co.Ltd(600256) . On the whole, in the first quarter of this year, new energy chemical materials were still the main ones with high market attention. Among them, the related targets of lithium battery cathode materials gained the most positions, and the concept stocks in hydrogen energy, conductive carbon black and carbon fiber also began to get attention.
From the perspective of new heavy positions and exit heavy positions, the top five targets of new heavy positions are Tangshan Sunfar Silicon Industry Co.Ltd(603938) , Tianjin Jiuri New Materials Co.Ltd(688199) , Jiangxi Chen Guang New Materials Co.Ltd(605399) , Beijing Sanju Environmental Protection & New Materials Co.Ltd(300072) , Rianlon Corporation(300596) . In terms of the objects of withdrawing from heavy positions, the top ten objects ranked according to the market value of heavy positions withdrawn in 2022q1 are Cangzhou Mingzhu Plastic Co.Ltd(002108) , Levima Advanced Materials Corporation(003022) , Xinxiang Chemical Fibre Co.Ltd(000949) , Shenzhen Batian Ecotypic Engineering Co.Ltd(002170) , Zhejiang Great Southeast Co.Ltd(002263) .
Since the first quarter of 2022, with the outbreak of the Russian Ukrainian war and the emergence of epidemics in various places, the uncertainty of the overall market has further intensified. In terms of fine molecule industry, the market attention is mainly divided into two directions. On the one hand, it turns its attention again to new energy chemical materials with high certainty of long-term demand growth; On the other hand, it is to look for areas with good supply and demand pattern in the traditional chemical industry sector, such as chemical fertilizer and soda ash, which began to regain attention. Specifically, the demand side of the nitrogen fertilizer industry is relatively rigid. In terms of supply, under the background of the Russian Ukrainian war, Russia, as an important fertilizer producer in the world, decided to stop the export of chemical fertilizer, accounting for 23% of its nitrogen fertilizer output. It is the world’s largest nitrogen fertilizer exporter. Under the expectation of policy implementation, the global supply may tighten in the future; For soda ash, considering the need to achieve the annual economic growth target and stabilize growth, the support policies for real estate are frequent, and the support at the demand side is relatively strong.
Public funds actively embrace growth stocks, and the style of configuring growth stocks in the chemical industry continues. The proportion of the total market value of the top ten heavyweight stocks in the heavy chemical industry of public funds decreased from 51.1% in 2021q4 to 46.9% in 2022q1, indicating that under the condition of relatively high positions of chemical leaders, the allocation of white horse leaders is still being reduced and small and medium cap growth stocks are actively embraced. Only Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) of the heavy positions of public funds in chemical industry leaders increased significantly, from 0.15% in 2021q4 to 0.34% in 2022q1.
Investment advice
Since this year, the market has been under pressure due to the disturbance of various factors. A large part of the bad has been reflected in the stock price, and the subsequent upward momentum may be gradually greater than the downward momentum. In terms of investment direction, we think there are four main lines to focus on. First, the inflation main line. Although its cost performance will fluctuate at different stages of the market, it may be one of the main lines throughout the year under the background of high inflation. It is suggested to focus on the related targets of phosphate fertilizer, potassium fertilizer and pesticide; Second, the combination of steady growth. The pressure of the epidemic has further increased the market’s attention to the direction of steady growth. Relevant lines are suggested to focus on soda ash with good supply and demand; The third is the defensive combination. Under the background that the market is still chaotic in the medium term, it is suggested to pay attention to the targets with undervalued value and good outlook, such as Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) ; Fourth, growth stocks may have midline layout opportunities brought by oversold.
Risk tips
The epidemic affects the decline of demand outside China, the sharp fluctuation of crude oil price, the impact of trade policy on industrial layout, and the risk of product price decline.
