This week’s view: with the improvement of policies in Hunan and other places this week, the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission stated that they should reasonably determine the minimum down payment ratio and do a good job in the financial services of M & A of key real estate enterprise risk disposal projects. Affected by the rapid increase in the early stage and the overall correction of the market, the sector has adjusted this week, but the downward pressure of the industry and the capital side risk of real estate enterprises still exist. Under the background of virtuous circle and “three stabilities”, we believe that the unstable policy of the real estate market is not only the policy, but the valuation repair driven by the policy side is expected to continue. In the medium and long term, with the withdrawal or contraction of some real estate enterprises in the painful period of this round, the industry pattern is expected to be optimized, and the market share and profitability of brand real estate enterprises with financing and control advantages are expected to be improved. The development sector is mainly concerned about: one is the strong operating and high credit enterprises with relaxed short-term benefit policies and improved gross profit margin at the land acquisition end, which are expected to seize market share in the medium and long term, such as Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , etc; One is the subject matter of policy game elasticity with certain support for Fundamentals, such as Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Jiangsu Zhongnan Construction Group Co.Ltd(000961) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , etc. The valuation of the property management sector has reached an all-time low, and the downward pressure of the guidance in the middle of the quarter of the annual report has been gradually released. With the continuous deregulation of policies and the improvement of the capital side of development enterprises, it is expected to bring the continuous repair of the valuation of high-quality property enterprises. Attention is paid to such services as country garden service, poly property, China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) , Jinke service, xinchengyue service, Xingsheng business, etc.
Policy environment monitoring: 1) improvement of property market policies in Hunan, Ningxia and other places; 2) Central bank and China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission: do a good job in financial services for mergers and acquisitions of risk disposal projects of key real estate enterprises
Market operation monitoring: 1) the turnover of new houses rebounded month on month, and it will still be under pressure in the short term. 30000 new houses were sold this week (April 16-april 22), up 8.6% month on month; 14000 second-hand houses were sold, down 0.6% month on month. In April (as of April 22), the average daily turnover of new houses decreased by 54.1% year-on-year, an increase of 10.4pct compared with March. Affected by repeated outbreaks and cautious supply and demand in the short term, subsequent transactions will still be under pressure. 2) The proportion of improved demand increased month on month. In the transaction of commercial houses in 32 cities in March 2022, the number of units above 90 square meters increased by 3.1pct to 80.2% month on month. 3) Inventory: rising month on month, declining in the short term. The inventory increased by 10.16 million, compared with that of the city. Under the pressure of capital and real estate market, real estate enterprises tend to de convert the existing inventory, the superposition of the epidemic situation repeatedly affects the project and promotion progress, and the short-term inventory scale may decline steadily. 4) The land transaction and premium rate rebounded, and the proportion of the first and second tier increased. Last week, 24.532 million square meters of land supply and construction surface and 13.906 million square meters of transaction construction surface were built in Baicheng, up 64.9% and 41.4% month on month; The transaction premium rate was 1.8%, up 0.7pct month on month. Among them, the first, second and third lines accounted for 2.7%, 59.6% and 37.7% respectively, with a month on month increase of 2.7pct, 16.2pct and 18.9pct respectively. With the first batch of centralized land supply in 2022, the proportion of the first and second lines increased.
Capital market monitoring: 1) real estate bonds: the issuance of domestic real estate bonds this week was 13.34 billion yuan, a month on month decrease of 8.09 billion yuan; The issuance of overseas bonds was US $51 million, down US $440 million month on month; The issuing interest rate of key real estate enterprises ranges from 2.25% to 7%, and the comparable issuing interest rate varies from the previous time. 2) Trust: collective trust issued 3.86 billion yuan this week, an increase of 2.43 billion yuan month on month. 3) Real estate stocks: the real estate sector fell 9.2% this week, underperforming CSI 300 (- 4.19%); At present, the PE (TTM) of the real estate sector is 10.28 times, and the valuation is 65.5% in the last five years. The top three net capital inflows from Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong stocks to the north this week were Greenland Holdings Corporation Limited(600606) , Yango Group Co.Ltd(000671) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) ; The top three net inflows of southbound funds are China overseas development, China Resources Land and Jinke services.
Risk tips: 1) supply adequacy reduces risk; 2) Performance pressure risk of real estate enterprises; 3) Policy care is less than expected risk.
