Key investment points:
In 2022, the macro policy will be stable and effective, the national economy will be stable, and an active fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy will be implemented. The central economic work conference stressed the need to promote the construction of affordable housing, support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, promote the healthy development and virtuous cycle of the real estate industry, and begin to correct the deviation of real estate policies. In the first quarter of 2022, RMB loans increased by 8.34 trillion yuan, an increase of 663.6 billion yuan year-on-year; In the first quarter, the cumulative increment of social financing scale was 12.06 trillion yuan, 1.77 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. Among them, the new social financing scale in March was eye-catching, with the new social financing scale reaching 4.65 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.27 trillion yuan, exceeding market expectations. The Ministry of housing and urban rural development once again clarified the direction of green building. We continue to give the industry a “recommended” rating.
On March 29, the State Council held an executive meeting to make important explanations for further boosting the public infrastructure construction industry. The meeting pointed out that “we should reasonably expand the scope of use of special bonds, support public services and other projects with certain benefits on the basis of projects focused on transportation, energy, ecological environmental protection and affordable housing projects. We should adhere to the principle of funds following the project, speed up the commencement and construction of the project, and form the physical workload as soon as possible”. On April 8, at the regular policy briefing of the State Council held by the Information Office of the State Council, vice minister Wei Shanzhong of the Ministry of Water Resources said that the investment of water conservancy projects could be completed this year is about 800 billion yuan, including major water diversion projects such as the follow-up project of the South-to-North Water Transfer. On the real estate side, favorable policies are frequent, and the “stimulus + deregulation” policy is expected to continue. In terms of investment, China’s real estate development investment in the first quarter increased by 0.7% year-on-year, of which residential investment increased by 0.7%; In March, the prosperity index of real estate development was 96.66, and the real estate market may maintain an optimistic development trend. In terms of sales, recently, the local real estate purchase and sale restriction policy has been relaxed, and the purchase threshold has been reduced in many first tier cities and provincial capital cities, including Shanghai, Zhengzhou, Fujian and Harbin. Since April, local purchase support policies have followed one after another. Within only half a month, 17 cities such as Shanghai, Suzhou and Dalian have relaxed the purchase policies to stimulate the purchase demand from the aspects of mortgage interest rate and purchase reward. Recommend China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) , China National Chemical Engineering Co.Ltd(601117) , focus on China Energy Engineering Corporation Limited(601868) , Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) and China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) .
BIPV is an important development direction of green buildings. Prefabricated buildings are in line with the development direction of green buildings. The central government and provinces and cities continue to issue policies to promote the penetration of prefabricated buildings. According to China Construction News, the standard and quota Department of the Ministry of housing and urban rural development focuses on building a “1 + 3” standardized design and production system, and prepares one industry standard and three dimensional guidelines for main components and parts. This standard is the first standardized design and selection standard for components of prefabricated housing in China. It mainly solves the problems related to the connection between standardized components and front-end design from the perspective of positive system integration design, and is expected to promote the further standardization and standardization of prefabricated construction industry. The area of local floors is extremely follow-up. On April 8, Jinan Municipal Bureau of housing and urban rural development issued the “14th five year plan” for the development of prefabricated buildings in Jinan, which proposed that the proportion of prefabricated buildings in new buildings should not be less than 50% by 2025. Focus on Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) , the leader of prefabricated buildings, Yuanda residential workers, and Hangxiao Steel Structure Co.Ltd(600477) , Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building(Group)Co.Ltd(600496) , which have recently developed more distributed photovoltaic buildings.
China’s carbon emission market has officially launched online trading, and power has become the first pilot industry Shanghai Environment Group Co.Ltd(601200) energy exchange predicts that industries with high carbon emissions such as steel, nonferrous smelting and building materials will be included in the scope of carbon emission trading in turn in 2022. For iron and steel, building materials and other industries, the low energy consumption and carbon capture technology owned by its leading enterprises will become an important force to promote carbon neutralization in the industry. Recommend Sinoma International Engineering Co.Ltd(600970) , Metallurgical Corporation Of China Ltd(601618) , and focus on Sinosteel Engineering & Technology Co.Ltd(000928) .
Risk warning: focus on the company’s performance less than expected; The implementation of policies in the real estate industry is less than expected; The growth rate of special bond issuance and infrastructure investment recovered less than expected; The price of raw materials continues to rise; The epidemic repeated or lasted longer than expected; Adverse changes have taken place in the macro environment.
