Current key recommendations: (1) cement sector: in the middle and late April, the demand performance of the national cement market is still weak, and the enterprise shipment rate remains at the level of 6-80%. With the implementation of off peak production by enterprises in some regions, the inventory continues to rise, the pressure is relieved, and the cement price maintains the trend of shock adjustment. (2) Glass fiber sector: in the long run, the downstream demand of glass fiber, especially the demand for wind power, automobile lightweight and PCB, has a large room for improvement, and the price of coarse sand is expected to remain high and stable. (3) Glass sector: under the background of double carbon policy, photovoltaic glass ushers in demand support. At the same time, the continuous improvement of double glass penetration also brings new growth rate to photovoltaic glass. However, affordable Internet access promotes industrial cost reduction and efficiency increase, puts forward higher requirements for enterprise technology and cost control, and benefits industry leaders with technology and cost advantages. At present, the valuation of the building materials industry is relatively low and the safety margin is high, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Recommended cement sector: (1) macro aspect: since April, infrastructure investment has continued to make efforts, and a number of major projects have been started in many places. From April 1 to April 8, 4385 major projects were started in Anhui Province, Heilongjiang Province, Henan Province, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and Gansu Province, with a total investment of 2084.4 billion yuan, which is expected to support the demand for cement. (2) Fundamentals: in mid April, China’s cement market demand was affected by the epidemic control, the overall performance was still poor, and the average shipment rate of enterprises fell by 25 percentage points year-on-year. In terms of price, as judged in the early stage, in the areas where staggered peak production has been implemented, the enterprises have raised the cement price synchronously in order to transmit the pressure of rising costs; In the regions significantly affected by the epidemic, the market oversupply was serious, and the price fell slightly. At present, it is recommended to take the lead in the cement area Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) , focusing on Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co.Ltd(000877) .
Recommended glass fiber industry: the quotation of roving in alkali free tank kiln is partial or flexible, and the quotation is mainstream or stable. At this stage, there is no sign of improvement in the demand of pond kiln factories, coupled with the limited transportation in most areas, the enthusiasm of the middle and lower reaches to pick up goods is general. At present, the inventory growth of tank kiln factories has accelerated, the inventory pressure of individual manufacturers with large production capacity has increased, and some products may be traded flexibly in the short term; Electronic yarn runs in a short time or tends to be stable. At present, the electronic yarn market is affected by the high supply pressure and the slow recovery of demand. The performance of terminal demand is less than expected, and most deep processing and delivery are cautious. The price of short-term electronic yarn may be stable, and the price of medium and long-term yarn will still be under pressure. In terms of individual stocks, recommend industry leaders China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080)
Glass industry: Although the float glass market increased slightly in some parts this week, the overall trading is still average. Transportation in some areas is still limited. The release of short-term market demand is still limited, the demand support is weak, coupled with the slow increase of inventory, some high inventory enterprises are under pressure for shipment and inventory. In the later stage, with the gradual recovery of transportation in the northern market, or the pressure on the delivery of goods in the surrounding areas, the market transaction price may be under pressure. Supply: at this stage, the production line changes little, and the supply side is relatively stable. However, the high inventory of the float factory is superimposed on the high shipment pressure of individual high inventory manufacturers in most regions, and the overall supply is still bad for the price. In terms of demand: the improvement of orders of processing plants is not obvious, most of them are under started, and the limited increment of new orders is the main influencing factor. The logistics in some consumer areas is still limited, and the short-term demand may still be lower than expected. In terms of cost: the price of raw materials and fuels is still rising, the cost pressure is further increased, the original film factory maintains a low profit level in the short term, and the profit of the long-term industry may still face further contraction expectations. Focus on the industry leader Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , Luoyang Glass Company Limited(600876) , Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) , Xinyi Glass, Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) , Shandong Jinjing Science And Technology Stock Co.Ltd(600586) .
Other consumer building materials: the waterproof industry has broad development prospects and the market stock is increasing. After the introduction of new industry standards, the market is expected to be structurally adjusted and the concentration is further improved. Under the background of carbon neutralization, photovoltaic roofs are gradually rising, and the service life requirements of photovoltaic houses facing the waterproof layer have become a new growth point of the waterproof industry. In addition, the recovery expectation of infrastructure and real estate end storage is optimistic about the improvement of the demand of the waterproof industry. Focus on Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , Jiangsu Canlon Building Materials Co.Ltd(300715) . Recommend the gypsum board leader Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) , the company’s “one body and two wings” layout is accelerated, and the waterproof and coating sectors are developing rapidly. We are optimistic about the future performance growth. The pipe sector focuses on the leader Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , Hong Kong stock and China Liansu. The coating sector pays attention to Skshu Paint Co.Ltd(603737) , Asia Cuanon Technology (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(603378) .
Risk warning: the construction progress of infrastructure projects is less than expected; The market demand is less than expected; Focus on the company’s performance not meeting expectations; Repeated epidemic impact on economy; Adverse changes have taken place in the macro environment.
