Industry data:
Brand clothing: the epidemic in March affected logistics and demand, dragging down Q1 textile and clothing society
In March 2022, the total retail sales of social consumer goods were - 3.5% year-on-year (growth rate was - 10.2pcts month on month), and the total retail sales of social consumer goods in Q1 was + 3.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate slowed down by 3.4pcts month on month. Among them, the category of textile and clothing was - 12.7% year-on-year (the growth rate was - 17.5pcts month on month). From the cumulative retail sales from January to March, the textile and clothing society was zero year-on-year -0.89.
According to different channels, from January to March 2022, the sales of online physical goods of national wearing category increased by + 0.9% year-on-year, further narrowing 3pcts month on month. Offline, due to the suspension of business districts in some first and second tier cities under the epidemic, the cumulative retail sales of department stores, specialty stores and professional stores in 2022q1 were - 3.3% / + 1% / + 6.6% year-on-year respectively (the growth rate was - 15 / - 11 / - 6.2pcts month on month in 2021).
Textile manufacturing: the export volume of textile and clothing reached a new high in the same period, and the cotton price at home and abroad remained high. The price situation: as of April 22, 2022, the cotton 328 price index closed at 22525 yuan / ton, with a month on month / year change of - 189 / + 6943 yuan.
Supply and demand: in April, USDA estimated that China's cotton supply in 2021 / 22 would be 7.882 million tons, the demand would be 8.508 million tons, and the supply-demand gap would be 626000 tons, which was 44000 tons smaller than that expected in March, and the stock sales ratio would be - 4pcts to 93.08%. From the perspective of the global market, in 2021 / 22, the supply-demand gap narrowed by 168000 to 850000 tons month on month, and the warehouse sales ratio was - 7.2pcts to 49.07%. The increase in supply mainly came from the increase in output (+ 75000 tons) in Pakistan and Greece. At the same time, the decrease in China's consumption led to the decline in global cotton demand (- 109000 tons), and the global cotton import and export volume was basically the same.
From the export data, the cumulative export amount of textile and clothing from January to March 2022 was + 11% year-on-year. By category, the export amount of clothing / textile products in March was + 7.2% / + 15% year-on-year respectively, and the export amount in a single month was + 10.5% / + 22.2% year-on-year respectively. Among them, the monthly / cumulative growth rate of textile exports in March continued to expand month on month, and the cumulative export amount of clothing and textiles reached a new high.
Vietnam Textile: as of April 23, 2022, the number of new / existing confirmed cases in Vietnam on that day was 41734 / 1422061. On the whole, the epidemic situation in Vietnam has tended to be stable. The new epidemic prevention policy may reduce the impact of the future epidemic on Vietnam's textile industry. In terms of exports, in March, Vietnam's textile exports amounted to US $3.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 18.5%, a record high in the same period, and the textile production capacity continued to recover.
Industry views and investment suggestions: 1) brand clothing, long-term optimistic about Anta sports, China's first sports brand with high industry prosperity, accurate differentiated positioning and perfect multi brand matrix (26x in 2022); 2) For textile and weaving, it is suggested to pay attention to the leading manufacturer of high-quality sports shoes Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) (24x in 2022) whose production capacity is concentrated in South Vietnam and is seriously affected by the epidemic, while the company is less affected by the epidemic in Vietnam and has strong orders; . And Zhejiang Jasan Holding Group Co.Ltd(603558) (2022 9x) with full orders and rapid recovery of overseas production capacity due to the great impact of the epidemic outside China last year.
Risk tip: the risk of macroeconomic slowdown; The terminal consumption demand slows down; Risk of cotton price change; The credibility risk of third-party data and the risk that the information and data used in the research report are not updated in time.
