Market review. As of April 22, 2022, Shenwan nonferrous metals industry fell by 8.08% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.89 percentage points and ranking 29th among Shenwan 31 industries; Shenwan nonferrous metals industry fell 11.23% this month, 6.27 percentage points lower than the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, ranking 23rd among Shenwan 31 industries; Shenwan nonferrous metals sector has fallen 18.86% year to date, 0.09 percentage points lower than Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, ranking 19th among Shenwan 31 industries.
As of April 22, 2022, among the sub sectors of the non-ferrous metal industry this week, the new metal materials sector fell by 4.89%, the precious metal sector fell by 7.06%, the industrial metal sector fell by 7.63%, the small metal sector fell by 8.75%, and the energy metal sector fell by 9.62%.
Zhou’s view on the nonferrous metals industry. Industrial metals. On Friday, the central bank announced a comprehensive RRR reduction to support the development of the real economy and benefit the downstream market of industrial metals. The hawkish speech of the US Federal Reserve eased the short-term shortage of copper and aluminum, while copper and aluminum prices continued to fall. It is suggested to pay attention to Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) ( Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) ), Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) ( Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) ), Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) ( Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) ), Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) ( Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) ). noble metal. On April 21st, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said the Fed was committed to “fast” interest rate hike to reduce inflation, indicating that inflation is absolutely necessary and that any advance adjustment is appropriate. At the same time, it said that 0.5 percentage points would be raised at the top note of interest conference in May. On the same day, US President Joe Biden said in a speech at the White House that the United States would provide another US $800 million in military assistance to Ukraine, and announced that it would prohibit ships related to Russia from entering the country’s ports. Tensions in Russia and Ukraine have further intensified. However, under the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve, the rising trend of gold prices in the future is under pressure. It is suggested to pay attention to Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) ( Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) ), Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) ( Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) ), Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) ( Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) ). Energy metals. This year, the production and sales volume of new energy vehicle market continues to be strong, the shortage of lithium salt products will intensify, and the price of lithium concentrate at the source will continue to rise, driving the price rise of the overall lithium battery industry chain. The higher cost of raw materials may affect the profitability of lithium salt processing enterprises and downstream battery manufacturers. The average price of battery grade lithium carbonate this week was 485000 yuan / ton, slightly lower than that of last week; The average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 460000 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of last week; The average price of lithium hydroxide was 486000 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of last week. It is suggested to pay attention to Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) ( Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) ) and Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) ( Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) ).
Risk tip: macroeconomic growth is less than expected; The monetary policy tightening of the Federal Reserve and the European central bank exceeded expectations; The prices of energy metals and rare earths fell sharply; The downstream demand of nonferrous metals is lower than expected; The impact of the uncertainty of the situation in Russia and Ukraine on the fluctuation of industrial metal prices.
