From January to March, the power consumption of the whole society increased by 5.0%, and the power consumption of the primary industry increased rapidly. According to the data of China electricity Union, in the first quarter of 2022, the power consumption of China’s whole society was 2042.3 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%. By industry, the electricity consumption of the primary industry was 24.1 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 12.6%; The electricity consumption of the secondary industry was 132.14 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%; The electricity consumption of the tertiary industry was 355.1 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%.
From January to March, the power generation increased by 3.1%, and the wind power generation increased significantly in March. According to CLP, China’s power generation in the first quarter of 2022 was 1992.2 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%. In terms of different power types, the thermal power generation capacity was 1461.4 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%; Hydropower generation was 221.2 billion kwh, an increase of 12.7% year-on-year; Nuclear power generation was 99 billion kwh, an increase of 6.9% year-on-year; Wind power generation was 183.7 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%. In terms of utilization hours, from January to March, the average utilization hours of hydropower, thermal power, nuclear power, wind power and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) equipment in China were 636, 1115, 1847, 555 and 300 hours respectively, with changes of + 36, – 2, + 30, – 65 and 0 hours respectively compared with the same period in 2021.
From January to March, the installed capacity of Fengguang increased by 21.11gw, and the proportion of installed capacity of Fengguang continued to increase. According to the data of China electricity Union, from January to March, the newly installed capacity of hydropower, thermal power, wind power, photovoltaic and nuclear power were 3.43, 5.81, 7.90, 13.21 and 1.16gw respectively, with year-on-year changes of + 214.68%, – 45.19%, + 50.19%, + 147.84% and + 0.87% respectively. As of March 2022, the cumulative installed capacity of hydropower, thermal power, wind power, photovoltaic and nuclear power in China was 390, 13.0, 0.5, 340 and 320 million KW respectively. Among them, wind power and photovoltaic accounted for 14.14% and 13.31% of the total installed capacity respectively, an increase of 0.34 and 0.39 percentage points compared with 13.80% and 12.92% in 2021.
The investment in power engineering increased by 2.5% year-on-year, and the investment in power grid engineering increased by 15.1% year-on-year. According to the data of China electricity Union, in the first quarter of 2022, the investment in power supply projects of major power generation enterprises in China was 81.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%; In terms of different power sources, hydropower was 18.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.6%; Thermal power was 12.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 51.9%; Nuclear power was 10.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.0%; Wind power was 21.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 33.5%. The investment in national power grid projects was 62.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.1%.
Investment suggestion: the epidemic situation in China is multi-point and multi-point. It is expected that in the short term, the power demand will be weak, and the growth rate of power consumption may decline. As the temperature rises, power demand is expected to return to growth. Affected by the weak short-term power demand and high coal price, it is expected that the output of thermal power will decline, and the output of wind power, hydropower and so on will increase. According to the installed capacity data, the new installed capacity of Fengguang new energy ranks first, and the performance of Fengguang new energy is expected to continue to grow rapidly in the future. Suggestions: 1) thermal power is expected to usher in a profit turning point. It is suggested to pay attention to [ Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) ] which is the leader of thermal power and accelerate the transformation of new energy; 2) Nuclear power operators are expected to see both volume and price rise. It is suggested to pay attention to [ China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) ] driven by nuclear power and Fengguang new energy; 3) With the rapid growth of the installed capacity of offshore wind power, the decline of construction costs and the promotion of the trend of large-scale offshore wind turbines, offshore wind power operators usher in development opportunities. It is suggested to pay attention to [ China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) ], [ Fujian Funeng Co.Ltd(600483) ], [ Zhongmin Energy Co.Ltd(600163) ].
Risk warning: policy promotion is not as expected; The project progress is not as expected; Intensified market competition; The macro-economy went down faster than expected; The public data used in the research report may have the risk of information lag or untimely update.
