Market review: from April 18 to April 22, 2022, CITIC consumer service industry index fell by 4.07% as a whole, ranking 13th among all CITIC primary industry indexes, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by about 0.12 percentage points in the same period. Among the segments of CITIC’s consumer service industry, comprehensive services, hotel catering, tourism and leisure and education sectors rose or fell by – 3.02%, – 5.05%, – 4.01% and – 3.69% respectively, outperforming the CSI 300 index except for the hotel catering sector. There are listed companies in the industry that have achieved positive returns. The top five gainers are foreign service holding, Zhejiang Ssaw Boutique Hotels Co.Ltd(301073) , Xueda (Xiamen) Education Technology Group Co.Ltd(000526) , Guangzhou Shiyuan Electronic Technology Company Limited(002841) , Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) , up 6.65%, 3.40%, 1.87%, 1.46% and 0.13% respectively. Among them, the top five listed companies that achieved negative returns were Tongqinglou Catering Co.Ltd(605108) , Xi’An Qujiang Cultural Tourism Co.Ltd(600706) , Dalian My Gym Education Technology Co.Ltd(002621) , Hainan Dadonghai Tourism Centre (Holdings) Co.Ltd(000613) , Tempus Global Business Service Group Holding Ltd(300178) , with increases and decreases of – 16.93%, – 20.27%, – 22.10%, – 24.03% and – 42.26% respectively. As of April 22, 2022, the overall PE (TTM, overall method) of CITIC consumer service industry is about 45.52 times, which is 46.56 times lower than the average valuation of the industry since 2016. The PE (TTM) of tourism and leisure, hotel catering, education and comprehensive services are 42.02 times, 106.83 times, 41.38 times and 26.17 times respectively.
Industry operation data: as of April 22, 2022, the vaccination volume of covid-19 vaccine per 100 people in China has reached 230.41 doses, the cumulative vaccination volume of covid-19 vaccine has reached 3.33 billion doses, and the average covid-19 vaccination volume in seven days is about 2338700 doses. The total amount of covid-19 vaccination per 100 people in the world reached 146.19 doses, of which the complete vaccination rate of covid-19 vaccine per 100 people reached 58.81%, and the daily covid-19 vaccination volume reached 110574 million doses.
Key industry news: (1) in the first quarter of 2022, the total number of tourists in China was 830 million, a decrease of 194 million or 19.0% over the same period last year. China’s tourism revenue (total tourism consumption) was 0.77 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.03 trillion yuan or 4.0% over the same period last year. (2) The world travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) said that the global travel and tourism industry is expected to return to its pre epidemic level in 2023, and its growth rate will exceed the growth rate of global GDP. (3) Qunar data show that on May Day this year, the average prices of high star hotels in Panzhihua, Haikou, Zigong, Yuxi, Kunming and medium and low star hotels in Southeast Guizhou, Chengdu, Jinan, Leshan, Chongqing and other cities all hit a new low in the same period in recent five years.
Industry perspective: maintain the recommended rating of the industry. According to the National Health Commission, from March 1 to April 18, China reported 497214 cases of local infection, affecting all provinces except Tibet. Under the restrictions of epidemic prevention policies, the profitability of many listed companies in the consumer service industry was damaged in the first quarter. Recently, China has increased measures to ensure supply and stability, and the number of new confirmed cases of the epidemic in Shanghai has dropped, but the industry is still under pressure in the short term. It is suggested to pay attention to the hotel leaders Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) ( Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) ) and Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) ( Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) ), which account for a high proportion of light assets.
Risk warning: macroeconomic downturn; Changes in industrial policies; The promotion of relevant policies is less than expected; Repeated outbreaks; Risks such as vaccine and drug development falling short of expectations
