The central bank has put forward differentiated housing credit policies and intensified the subsidy policies for house purchase in many places. This week, Nantong, Changde and other places introduced strong house purchase subsidy policies. Different from the fixed amount of previous policies, the house purchase subsidy policy is mostly percentage subsidy. On April 18, the people’s Bank of China and the State Administration of foreign exchange issued the notice on doing a good job in epidemic prevention and control and financial services for economic and social development, The notice states: “due to the implementation of urban policies, we should implement differentiated housing credit policies, reasonably determine the minimum down payment ratio and minimum loan interest rate requirements of commercial individual housing loans within the jurisdiction, better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, and promote the stable and healthy development of the local real estate market.” This time, the central bank and the State Administration of foreign exchange made a sound proposal to implement differentiated housing credit policies and reasonably determine the minimum down payment ratio and minimum loan interest rate requirements of commercial individual housing loans within their jurisdiction, which will promote more cities to follow up the introduction of demand side policies, especially the release of loan restriction and relaxation policies, and accelerate the bottom recovery of sales fundamentals.
Market review: the decline ranked first in all industries, 4.91 percentage points behind the market. This week, the cumulative change range of CITIC Real Estate Index was – 9.1%, 4.91 percentage points behind the market, ranking 29th among the 29 CITIC industry sectors. There were 9 rising stocks this week, 10 less than last week, and 12 falling stocks. (unless otherwise specified, this week in the report refers to the week from April 16 to April 22). Transaction of new houses: the transaction area of new houses in 32 cities this week was 2.433 million square meters, an increase of 12.5% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 53.0% Among them, the transaction area of new houses in the sample first tier cities was 401000 square meters, 36.5% month on month and – 56.7% year-on-year; The sample of second tier cities is 1456000 m3, with a month on month ratio of 4.2% and a year-on-year ratio of – 49.8%; The third tier cities in the sample were 577000 m3, with a month on month ratio of 22.2% and a year-on-year ratio of – 57.3%.
Second hand housing transactions: the transaction area of second-hand housing in the 12 key cities we tracked this week totaled 116.4, an increase of 0.2% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 36.9%. Among them, the transaction area of second-hand houses in the sample first tier cities this week was 368000 square meters, a month on month increase of 1.5%; The sample of second tier cities is 611000 m3, with a month on month ratio of – 6.4%; The third tier cities in the sample are 186000 square meters, with a month on month ratio of 26.6%. Since the beginning of the year, the cumulative transaction area of second-hand houses has been 15.105 million m3, with a year-on-year change of – 37.2%; Among them, the cumulative transaction area of second-hand houses in the sample first tier cities was 4.58 million m3, a year-on-year increase of – 40.5%; The sample of second tier cities was 8.518 million m3, a year-on-year increase of – 33.9%; The third tier cities in the sample were 2.06 million m3, a year-on-year increase of – 33.9%.
Domestic credit bonds of key companies: the issuance of bonds by real estate enterprises continued to recover. According to the statistics of Shenwan industry real estate index, 17 real estate enterprise credit bonds were issued this week (April 18-april 24), up 8 month on month; The issuance scale totaled 16.472 billion yuan, an increase of 9.572 billion yuan month on month, the total repayment was 8.263 billion yuan, an increase of 577 million yuan month on month, and the net financing amount was 8.209 billion yuan, an increase of 8.995 billion yuan month on month. In terms of financing cost, the bond interest rates of Tianjin Fangkai (- 190bp), Yandu state owned assets (- 70bp), Kunshan urban investment (- 28bp) and Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) (- 21bp) are lower than those of comparable bonds of the same type and period previously issued by the company.
Investment suggestions: the central bank rarely proposes to implement differentiated housing credit policies, relax policies on real estate in many places, and maintain the “overweight” rating of the real estate development sector. We believe that this year is a large-scale policy easing cycle, which is a beta market. Real estate enterprises with good credit qualification, sufficient liquidity, sufficient soil reserves and high quality are the main choice. It is suggested to pay attention to: A shares Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Huafa Industrial Co.Ltd.Zhuhai(600325) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) ; H-share China overseas development, green city China, China Resources Land, Longhu group, China Jinmao, Xuhui holding group, China Overseas Hongyang. Property management: Country Garden service, China Resources Vientiane, green city service, poly property, Yongsheng life service, Jinke service, China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) .
Risk tip: the speed of policy introduction and implementation are lower than expected, and the fundamentals continue to decline, causing a chain reaction. The repeated impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations.
