Key investment points
The first auction of local enterprises in Ningbo has obvious backing, and the first auction in Nanjing is less hot than expected. 1) Ningbo: 33 homesteads involved in this round of land auction were successfully transferred, including 8 premium transactions, and 5 plots reached the maximum price + lottery transactions. The overall premium rate decreased slightly to 5.9% compared with the third round of last year, becoming the first city to decline compared with the third round of last year. More than 70% of the plot was taken by the local urban investment base. 2) Nanjing: on the one hand, Nanjing has reduced the supply scale, on the other hand, it has greatly reduced the transfer threshold. From the final results, 6 of the 19 residential land planned to be transferred were subject to auction because there was no bidding, and the auction rate rose to 32%, which was higher than that of any batch last year. Among the 13 plots, 3 hit the top, waved the number, 3 traded at a premium, and all the remaining reserve prices were traded. The overall auction heat was further lower than that of the third batch last year. Specifically, the central state-owned enterprises have become the main force of land acquisition, and the 13 land plots are basically won by the central and state-owned enterprises.
The “loose property market” policy continues. Following the expectation of “stabilizing the real estate market, preventing risks and stabilizing the market” jointly issued by six ministries and commissions on March 16, about 80 cities across the country have issued nearly 100 new policies conducive to the real estate market, among which the deregulation cities have gradually expanded from third and fourth tier cities to hot first and second tier cities, with increasing efforts. This week, Huaian explicitly offered 2 sets of housing for the local residents, no parents in the urban area, or more families, and another registered residence. In addition, it is reported that Shaoxing will promulgate the deregulation policy of the real estate market. Except for the “hot areas” in the three districts, the number of purchase units will no longer be limited. The sales restriction of new goods will be adjusted to three years after the online signature filing. At the same time, the minimum down payment ratio of new houses will also be reduced. Since March, some first and second tier cities have successively adjusted the purchase and sale restriction policies, and the toolbox and deregulation of local real estate regulation policies have been significantly strengthened. It is expected that more cities will follow up in the future.
In April, the cumulative sales area of 32 cities was – 47.8% year-on-year and – 5.0% month on month. According to the statistics of commercial housing transactions in 32 cities across the country, the cumulative transaction area in April (as of April 22) was – 47.8% year-on-year and – 5.0% month on month. Among them, the first tier cities were – 49.6% year-on-year and – 25.2% month on month; Second tier cities were – 45.5% year-on-year and + 6.2% month on month; The third and fourth tier cities had a year-on-year increase of – 52.3% and a month on month increase of – 17.1%. First tier cities, except Shanghai, have warmed up to varying degrees, with Shenzhen showing a bright performance of + 85.7% month on month; Among the second tier cities in the statistics, the month on month growth rate achieved positive growth for the first time since April. Wuhan, Qingdao and Nanning performed better, with + 22.5%, + 24.6% and + 55.3% month on month respectively; The third and fourth tier cities performed differently. Changzhou and Nanping performed better than other cities, achieving + 99.0 and + 108.4% month on month (MOM) respectively.
Investment suggestion: we think we should pay attention to four main investment lines at present: 1) development enterprises: Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co.Ltd(000069) , China Resources Land, Longhu group, China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Xuhui holdings, China Construction Development International Holdings, Shenzhen New Nanshan Holding (Group) Co.Ltd(002314) , etc; 2) Property management enterprises: Country Garden service, China Resources Vientiane life, Jinke service, Xuhui Yongsheng service, etc; 3) Track transformation Enterprises: Tianjin Guangyu Development Co.Ltd(000537) , Lushang Health Industry Development Co.Ltd(600223) etc; 4) Real estate brokerage Enterprises: shells, etc.
Risk tips: project delivery risk, project sales collection risk, industry policy regulation risk.
