Weekly market of construction industry
The industry rose and fell in the week. This week (4.18-4.22), the building decoration industry (SW) fell 6.36%, weaker than the performance of Shanghai Composite Index (- 3.87%), Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 (- 4.19%) and Shenzhen Component Index (- 5.12%). The weekly increase ranked 24th among sw31 first-class industries, and the industry ranking fell 4 places compared with last week (28th). In terms of molecular sectors, the decline in engineering consulting services (- 4.13%), housing construction (- 5.43%) and basic municipal engineering (- 6.02%) was small, and the performance of steel structure sector was the weakest (- 9.66%).
Performance of individual stocks in a week. This week, a total of 14 companies in CITIC construction industry recorded an increase, accounting for 9.59%; 71 companies, accounting for 48.63%, rose more than the industry index (- 6.36%) this week. The construction industry recorded an increase this week. The number of companies increased compared with last week. The number of companies whose performance exceeded the industry increase this week increased compared with last week. The top 5 gainers of the industry are Beijing Qianjing Landscape Co.Ltd(603778) (16.19%), Hunan Huakai Cultural And Creative Co.Ltd(300592) (11.13%), Hualan Group Co.Ltd(301027) (9.23%), Shanghai Geoharbour Construction Group Co.Ltd(605598) (7.91%), Misho Ecology & Landscape Co.Ltd(300495) (7.59%); The top 5 industry declines this week were Daqian Ecology & Environment Group Co.Ltd(603955) (- 16.60%), deepwater planning (- 16.95%), Haibo Heavy Engineering Science And Technology Co.Ltd(300517) (- 17.14%), Hangzhou Landscape Architecture Design Institute Co.Ltd(300649) (- 17.21%), and Ningbo Construction Co.Ltd(601789) (- 18.51%).
Industry valuation. From the perspective of the overall P / E ratio of the industry, as of April 22, the P / E ratio (TTM) of the architectural decoration industry was 10.14 times and the industry P / B ratio (MRQ) was 0.89 times. The P / E ratio and P / B ratio of the industry decreased compared with last week. Compared with the SW primary industry, PE in the construction industry ranks the third from the bottom, higher than steel and banks; Pb valuation ranks the penultimate in all primary industries, higher than that of banks. At present, the lowest price earnings ratio (TTM) in the industry is Shaanxi Construction Engineering Group Corporation Limited(600248) (2.93), China Railway Construction Corporation Limited(601186) (4.27), China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) (4.81), China Railway Group Limited(601390) (5.84), Shandong Hi-Speed Road&Bridge Co.Ltd(000498) (6.29); The lowest price to book ratio (MRQ) is Misho Ecology & Landscape Co.Ltd(300495) (0.50), China Railway Construction Corporation Limited(601186) (0.51), Beijing Orient Landscape & Environment Co.Ltd(002310) (0.55), Shenzhen Grandland Group Co.Ltd(002482) (0.61), Long Yuan Construction Group Co.Ltd(600491) (0.63).
Industry dynamic analysis
In 2022q1, the growth rate of infrastructure continued to increase month on month, with highlights in the growth rate of investment in public facilities, railway industry and electric heating, gas and water.
On April 18 this week, the Bureau of statistics released the investment data for the first quarter of 2022. The growth rates of fixed investment / narrow infrastructure investment / broad infrastructure investment were 9.3%, 8.5% (month on month + 0.4 PCT) and 10.48% (month on month + 1.9 PCT) respectively. The growth rate of infrastructure investment continued to improve, and the stable growth policy in the early stage achieved initial results. In terms of sub sectors, except railway transportation, other sub sectors have achieved year-on-year positive growth. The investment in water conservancy management industry and public facilities management industry has a year-on-year growth rate of 10.0% and 8.1% respectively, 13.15 PCT and 7.30 PCT higher than the average growth level in 20192021, or due to the accelerated construction of major water conservancy and transportation projects; The growth rate of investment in road transportation industry was 3.60%, down 4.6 PCT compared with the growth rate of investment from January to February, and the investment in railway transportation industry fell 2.9% year-on-year, with a sharp decrease of 5.1 PCT from January to February. In the broad scope of infrastructure investment, the investment in electric heating, gas and water increased by 19.30% year-on-year in the first quarter, up 7.6 PCT month on month from January to February. The overall performance of infrastructure investment data in the first quarter is bright, or because the special bonds issued by 21q4 and 22q1 have been put into use, and the progress of major construction projects has been accelerated, which reflects the remarkable effect of the early steady growth policy to a certain extent.
Recently, the overall market performance of the construction industry has been corrected, but the overall policy driving force and investment demand of the industry are still strong. The fundamentals of the company maintain a positive trend and are optimistic about the subsequent steady growth market. Due to epidemic factors, the current construction progress of many projects may be less than expected. In order to hedge the impact of the epidemic on investment, the steady growth policy is expected to increase again. We continue to be optimistic about the follow-up market performance of the construction industry. It is suggested to focus on the “two new and one heavy” infrastructure leaders, including central construction enterprises, regional infrastructure leaders and high-quality targets of infrastructure survey and design. At the same time, the marginal improvement policy of the real estate industry continues, and the favorable policy expectation in the future is relatively strong. The high-quality central enterprises and local state-owned enterprises that layout the real estate business usher in the valuation repair. The market performance of the real estate chain design, decoration and consumer building materials sector is worth looking forward to.
The proportion of heavy positions of 2022q1 funds in the construction industry increased month on month. The first quarter report of the fund in 2022 has been disclosed. According to the statistical data of the fund’s heavy positions, we mainly make statistics on the fund positions in 2022q1 in the architectural decoration industry from the perspectives of industry allocation proportion, changes in shareholding sector, ranking of shareholding market value, changes in shareholding list, changes in shareholding market value and the number of shareholding funds, and make a comparative analysis with 2021q4.
According to the statistics based on all equity and hybrid funds, the proportion of heavy positions in the building decoration industry (SW) in 2022q1 was 0.92%, an increase of 0.29 PCT compared with 2021q4. Under this statistical caliber, the heavy positions of public funds held 53 architectural decoration industry targets, an increase of 7 over Q4, with a total holding of 4.013 billion shares, an increase of 52.14% over Q4, and a market value of 28.731 billion yuan, an increase of 26.62% over Q4. In terms of the market value of shares held by sub sectors, the market value of heavy positions held by housing construction (9.794 billion yuan), steel structure (5.109 billion yuan) and railway construction (3.527 billion yuan) ranks among the top three sub sectors. From the perspective of the change of the shareholding market value of each sub sector, the increase in the shareholding market value of the housing construction sector was the largest month on month, at 4.852 billion yuan, with a month on month growth rate of 98.17%; Followed by the railway construction sector, the market value of shares increased by 1.419 billion yuan, an increase of 67.34% month on month; The market value of shares held by road and bridge construction and other professional engineering sectors increased by 128.30% and 46.98% month on month, respectively. From the perspective of heavy positions of individual stocks, the subject matter with the number of shares in the top 10 of the industry includes 9 leading central enterprises and local state-owned enterprises Shanghai Construction Group Co.Ltd(600170) , and the subject matter with the market value of shares in the top 10 of the industry includes 8 central enterprises and steel structure subjects Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) and Center International Group Co.Ltd(603098) .
Based on the statistical caliber of active public funds (mainly common stock + partial stock hybrid funds), the proportion of heavy position allocation in the building decoration industry (SW) in 2022q1 is 0.57%, which is 0.13 PCT higher than that in 2021q4. At the ultra / low allocation level, it is 1.53 PCT lower than that in the standard industry. Active public funds hold 30 architectural decoration industry targets in heavy positions, which is the same as 2021q4. The number of shares held is 1.147 billion, with a chain comparison of + 44.06%, and the market value of shares is 10.316 billion yuan, with a chain comparison of + 12.36%.
From the perspective of market value and number of shares held by sub sectors, the market value of heavy positions held by housing construction (RMB 3.539 billion), steel structure (RMB 3.407 billion) and Chemical Engineering (RMB 966million) sectors ranks among the top three sub sectors. Housing construction (650 million shares), steel structure (104 million shares) and water conservancy engineering (101 million shares) ranked among the top three sub sectors in terms of heavy holdings.
From the perspective of the changes in the shareholding market value of each sub sector, the increase in the shareholding market value of the housing construction sector was the largest month on month, at 1.619 billion yuan, with a month on month growth rate of 84.33%; Followed by the road and bridge construction sector, the market value of shares increased by 494 million yuan, a month on month increase of 191.98%; The market value of shares held by railway construction sector increased by 103205% month on month, mainly due to the substantial increase of China Railway Group Limited(601390) 2022q1; The shareholding market value of urban rail construction sector increased by 50.91% month on month.
From the perspective of the stocks in the heavy positions, the building targets held in the heavy positions of the 2022q1 active public funds in 2022q1, from the perspective of the shares in the heavy positions, the building targets held in the heavy positions of the 20222q1, the 20222q1, the 20222q1, the building targets held in the heavy positions held by the 2022q1, the 2022q1, the 2022q1, the 2022q1 active mutual funds in the 2022q1 active raised funds in the heavy positions of the 2022q1, and the building targets held in the heavy positions of the 2022q1 active public funds in the 2022q1, which are dominated by the leading targets of each sector. Compared to 2021q44 compared to 2021q4q42021q4compared to 2021q42021q4compared to 2021q4 Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) 5454545 3 and Shanghai Construction Group Co.Ltd(600170) new active public fund heavy position shareholding list. The top 10 are ranked by the value of the stock market held by the shares that are held by the shares that are held in the back of the active public funds, and the top 10 are: the China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) \ (307 million yuan), Qingdao East Steel Tower Stock Co.Ltd(002545) (224 million yuan), Sinoma International Engineering Co.Ltd(600970) (198 million yuan), Zhejiang Southeast Space Frame Co.Ltd(002135) (179 million yuan), They are respectively the leading targets in the fields of infrastructure central enterprises, steel structures, chemical engineering, water conservancy engineering, road and bridge construction, railway construction and so on.
From the change in the number of shares held by sub sectors, the top five sectors in terms of the month on month increase in the number of shares held by 2022q1 active funds are housing construction (+ 268644700 shares / + 70.40%), road and bridge construction (+ 51566200 shares / + 182.90%), railway construction (+ 47022200 shares / + 982.24%), steel structure (+ 21893800 shares / + 26.75%) and urban rail construction (+ 2672900 shares / + 45.00%). From the 2022q1 market performance of the above sectors, the rise and fall of each sub sector are: Housing construction (+ 45.18%), road and bridge construction (+ 16.53%), railway construction (+ 1.71%), steel structure (- 7.97%) and urban rail construction (+ 0.79%). In 2022q1, the number of shares held in water conservancy engineering, chemical engineering, decoration and other infrastructure sectors decreased by 179553 million shares, 179371 million shares, 9.021 million shares and 6.5619 million shares respectively month on month.
From the change of the number of shares held by individual stocks, among the 30 heavy warehouse stocks in the construction industry, 20 companies have increased the number of shares held, and the position increase level ranks among the forefront of the industry. The targets are mainly undervalued infrastructure central enterprises and local state-owned enterprises, steel structure leaders and Road and bridge construction leaders, reflecting that under the expectation of steady growth, the investment value of undervalued infrastructure sector has gradually been recognized by institutions. The top 10 of the top 10 of the top 10 of the top 10 of the top 10 of the top 10 of the top 10 of the top 10 of the top 10 of the top 10 of the top 10 of the top 10 of the top 10 of the top 10 of the top 10 of the top 10 of the top 10 of the top 10 of the top 10 of the top 10 of the top 10 of the top 10 of the top 10 of the top 10 of the top 10 of the top 10 of the top 10 of the top 10 of the top 10 of the top 10 of the top 10 10 of the top 10 of the top 10 10 of the top 10 of the top 10 of the top 10 of the 10 of the top 10 of the top 10 of the top 10 of the 10 of the 10 of the top 10 of the top 10 of the 10 of the top 10 of the top 10 of the top 10 of the top 10 of the top 10 of the top 10 of the top 10 of the top 10 of the 10 of the top 10 of the top 10 of the top 10 of the top 10 of the top 10 of the 10 of the 10 of the 10 (+ 11778300 shares), Shandong Hi-Speed Road&Bridge Co.Ltd(000498) (+ 6703800 shares), China National Chemical Engineering Co.Ltd(601117) (+ 6591300 shares), Shanghai Tunnel Engineering Co.Ltd(600820) (+ 2460000 shares).
Overall, in terms of the proportion of position allocation in the construction industry, since 2012, except for the obvious over allocation from 2012q1 to 2013q2, 2016q3 and 2017q1, the construction industry has shown a state of low allocation in the rest of the time. The state of low allocation continues in 2022. The 2022q1 active public fund has increased the proportion of heavy position allocation to the central enterprises of undervalued infrastructure, local infrastructure leaders and steel structure leaders, or mainly due to the continuous overweight of steady growth, The infrastructure underpinning is expected to be strong. At present, the construction state-owned enterprises are basically well oriented, the market share increases significantly, and the performance is expected to continue to improve. At the same time, the “construction +” model has become a new trend in the development of the industry. The layout of high-quality construction enterprises has created new performance growth points. At the same time, it has helped to improve the valuation of the sector, and the overall configuration value of the industry is significant. ■ this week’s investment proposal has a clear tone for steady growth, increased fiscal expenditure, bright data on infrastructure investment from January to February, high investment in water conservancy and transportation construction from January to March, initial results in policy implementation, clear demand for two new and one heavy construction in the construction industry, large construction plans in various regions, relatively sufficient capital supply, and the follow-up steady growth is expected to continue to increase, This week, we continue to recommend high-quality infrastructure targets that benefit from the “two new and one heavy” under the steady growth target. At the same time, we suggest to pay attention to the design, decoration and real estate construction companies related to the real estate chain that benefit from the marginal improvement of the policies of the real estate industry. In addition, the company’s performance is expected to be expected due to the sufficient orders on hand in the early stage and the better than expected performance of 22q1, including:
1) China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) , China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) , China Railway Construction Corporation Limited(601186) , Metallurgical Corporation Of China Ltd(601618) , Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) and other central construction enterprises, Shandong Hi-Speed Road&Bridge Co.Ltd(000498) , Anhui Construction Engineering Group Corporation Limited(600502) and other regional infrastructure leaders, with excellent order performance and significant valuation advantages, are the main force to increase infrastructure and the main beneficiaries of steady growth and moderate improvement of industry concentration;
2) Anhui Transport Consulting & Design Institute Co.Ltd(603357) , high-quality survey and design targets at the front of the industrial chain, give priority to the steady growth of infrastructure and the high growth of infrastructure demand in the province during the 14th Five Year Plan period;
3) Shenzhen Capol International&Associatesco.Ltd(002949) , the leader of real estate design, benefited from the marginal improvement of policies in the real estate industry and the release of demand for prefabricated building construction during the 14th Five Year Plan period.
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2022 industry investment perspective
In 2022, the construction industry is expected to usher in multiple development opportunities of fundamentals, policy driven and “construction +”, and the industry is in the undervalued range, with prominent investment value. The overall fundamentals of the construction industry are improving. In particular, the rapid growth of orders from central infrastructure enterprises and local infrastructure leaders will help improve performance. It will take the lead in benefiting from the release of infrastructure demand under the goal of stable growth. At the same time, it will actively layout new businesses, improve comprehensive strength and help valuation repair. The policy is expected to become another driving force for the upward trend of the industry in 2022. In the near future, the steady growth policy will continue to increase, the active fiscal policy should improve the efficiency, the local special debt can be expected, the monetary policy should be flexible and appropriate, and the liquidity should be reasonable and abundant, which will help promote the construction of “two new and one heavy”, and the acceleration of infrastructure investment is worth looking forward to.
The construction industry actively embraces the “new economy” and actively arranges Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) . BIPV, energy storage and carbon sequestration have become the key areas of layout of listed companies. Some companies Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) have achieved initial results and are expected to continue to make efforts in the future to help improve the valuation level of companies and industries. Industry leaders and regional leaders will continue to cultivate traditional businesses, expand the whole industrial chain and extend upstream and downstream around traditional businesses, and fully benefit from the improvement of industry concentration. The release of future performance is sustainable. On the whole, the construction industry has both “white horse” with good performance and extremely low valuation, and “dark horse” with layout of “building +” and standing at the market outlet. The overall trend of the industry is good, with fundamental support and policy catalysis. In addition, the “building +” helps to improve the valuation and is optimistic about the overall trend of the construction industry in 2022.
Suggestions on medium and long-term configuration
The overall fundamentals of the construction industry have improved. Industry leaders and regional leaders have benefited from the “national advance and people retreat” and the improvement of industry concentration. Both newly signed orders and performance have increased rapidly. At the same time, the construction industry actively embraces the “new economy” and the “construction +” era is coming, opening up the future development space of the company. On the main line of configuration, we propose to actively layout the “construction +” new business sector around the “two new and one heavy” infrastructure leaders and the “double carbon” background:
(1) “two new and one heavy” infrastructure leaders. The construction of central enterprises and regional infrastructure leaders will fully benefit from the “two new and one heavy” construction, and the construction of central enterprises and districts
