Zhou’s point of view: demand continues to marginal repair, and industrial chain profits swim downward
(1) new energy vehicles: in the short term or at the bottom, the moment with the greatest impact of the epidemic will gradually pass. From the perspective of downstream companies, Tesla and Byd Company Limited(002594) two downstream leaders have started the marginal upward trend and continue to lead the industry penetration to accelerate upward: Tesla‘s Shanghai base has gradually resumed production and the supply chain has gradually returned to normal Byd Company Limited(002594) after the price increase, the demand continues to exceed expectations. The recent implementation of the employee stock ownership plan will continue to optimize the management and employee enthusiasm. From the perspective of the midstream industrial chain, the demand for Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) began to climb continuously in late April; After the price of the battery link increased about twice, the lowest profit has passed. From the upstream resource side, the price of lithium carbonate has continued to fall recently. We believe that the mitigation of upstream supply will continue in the next two months. From the perspective of investment rhythm, the stage with the greatest contradiction between supply and demand is about to pass, and the short term is a good layout period; As the demand side is better, the supply side of the industrial chain will be released faster in the second half of the year, and the growth environment will be better. We believe that we should pay attention to investment opportunities in three directions: (a) core growth: invest according to the level of barriers (batteries, lithium resources, diaphragms, negative electrodes, etc.), Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) and other companies benefit; (b) Post cycle: companies such as Pylon Technologies Co.Ltd(688063) , Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) etc. benefit from flexible investment according to the growth rate, such as energy storage, power exchange and other sectors; (c) New technology: invest at the rate of penetration improvement, such as 4680, flat wire, etc. Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Gold Cup Electric Apparatus Co.Ltd(002533) , etc.
It is expected that the price of the photovoltaic industry will gradually shift to the downstream for more than a quarter, which is expected to lead to the difficulty of the distribution of profits to the downstream of the photovoltaic industry. Recently, the price of photovoltaic industry chain continues to rise, which has affected the downstream installation demand. In addition, the short-term epidemic affects transportation. We expect these conditions to improve significantly in May. At present, it is a good layout period. We are mainly optimistic about three directions: (a) terminal links such as global leading components with good competition pattern, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) and other benefits; (b) Innovation at the industrial end (n-type battery, granular silicon, localization of parts, etc.) benefits Jingke energy, poly GCL energy, etc. (c) Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) and other post cycle links such as power stations benefit.
(3) wind power: Haili wind power and other companies have increased their layout in Shandong, and offshore wind power is expected to start a medium and long-term upward cycle. The bidding price of industrial chain products is in the bottom range, and the current stage is a good window period for wind power plant investment; At the same time, the bidding price is relatively low at the bottom corresponding to the manufacturing end stock, which is worth long-term layout at present. Long term optimistic about offshore wind power + large-scale + core parts, Zhejiang Windey Co.Ltd(300772) , Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) , Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) and other companies benefit; Wind power plant investment and operators benefit in the short term.
The disturbance of multiple factors does not change the upward trend of new energy vehicles. Price increase, epidemic and core shortage disturbance are inevitable, but the overall impact may be limited, and the upward trend remains unchanged.
Sector and company tracking
New energy vehicle industry: Tesla, SAIC Volkswagen and other enterprises began to gradually resume production
New energy vehicle companies: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) issue annual report for 2021
Photovoltaic industry: installed capacity increased by 13.21gw in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of 148%
Photovoltaic company level: Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) released the performance forecast for the first quarter of 2022
At the level of wind energy industry: National Development and Reform Commission: new wind power projects in 2022 will continue the parity Internet access policy
Risk warning: the impact and demand of the epidemic are less than expected
