Zhou Du’s core view:
E-commerce:
The epidemic situation in many places in China has rebounded, and the online consumption demand of residents may continue to increase; With the concerted efforts of major e-commerce platforms to fight the epidemic, materials and transportation capacity have been marginally improved. 51 e-commerce platforms in Shanghai have resumed business, with a non epidemic opening rate of 96.3%; 858 front warehouses resumed business, and the opening rate of non epidemic related warehouses was 78.5%; The number of on-the-job riders has reached 20000. Under the trend of stricter epidemic prevention and control, real-time retail and community group purchase may benefit: self operated modes of real-time retail e-commerce, such as daily excellent fresh food, Ding Dong shopping, box horse, meituan shopping, etc; O2o platform modes, such as Jingdong home, taoxianda, hungry, meituan flash purchase, etc; Community group purchase, such as meituan optimization, buying more vegetables, panning vegetables, etc. Suggestion: JD group.
Traditional retail:
In the first quarter of 2022, the retail sales of supermarkets, convenience stores, specialty stores and specialty stores in retail units above designated size increased by 3.2%, 10.1%, 6.6% and 1.0% respectively year-on-year, and the retail sales of department stores decreased by 3.3% year-on-year; Carrefour opened a “mobile supermarket” for public transportation in Shanghai, serving the first batch of 8 communities around Qingpu District; HEMA announced the launch of the “mobile supermarket” in Shanghai, covering the first batch of some communities 10 kilometers around the four HEMA x member stores Suning.Com Co.Ltd(002024) Shanghai’s large cargo logistics and distribution capacity has recovered to 90% of the level before the epidemic. Recently, the epidemic situation in China has rebounded, local control has become increasingly strict, residents have hoarded goods, and the sales of fresh, quick-frozen food, prefabricated vegetables and other categories may increase. We pay attention to the repair opportunities of guarantee supplier Super enterprises with the advantage of fresh supply chain. It is suggested to pay attention to: Yonghui Superstores Co.Ltd(601933) , Jiajiayue Group Co.Ltd(603708) , Chengdu Hongqi Chain Co.Ltd(002697) .
Gold jewelry:
Gold and jewelry maintained a high outlook. In the first quarter of 2022, the retail sales of gold, silver and jewelry commodities increased by 7.6% year-on-year, and the overall social zero growth rate in the same period was 3.3%. In the short term, the demand depends on the effectiveness of epidemic prevention and control and the recovery of offline passenger flow; In the long run, the upgrading of the ancient process on the product side will stimulate terminal consumption, and the reform of changing the one-time price of gold to the weight of gold on the price side will promote the transparency of the pricing mechanism. With the head brand actively expanding the sinking market, the market concentration is expected to continue to improve. It is suggested to pay attention to: Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) , Chow Tai Fook, Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) .
Market review last week:
Last week (202204.18202204.22), the retail trade (CITIC) index fell 3.50%, less than the CSI 300 index by 0.69pct. Among the 30 first-class industries of CITIC, the commerce and retail sector ranks 10th. Among the sub industries in the retail sector, the sub industry with the highest growth rate was the comprehensive industry, with an increase of 1.24%. The quantile of PE in commercial retail industry is greater than that in Shanghai and Shenzhen 300. At present, the PE (TTM) of commercial retail industry is 69.31, which is in the quantile from small to large since 2012, which is 90.51%; Shanghai and Shenzhen 300pe (TTM) is 11.85, and the quantile is 39.77%.
Industry dynamic tracking:
E-commerce: the distribution orders of major e-commerce platforms in Shanghai increased by 1 million within 10 days. 51 large warehouses of Shanghai e-commerce platforms have resumed business, and the opening rate of non epidemic related warehouses is 96.3%; Jingdong supermarket established two warehouses to transport 227000 necessities for people’s livelihood, such as food, mothers and babies. Jingdong supermarket joined hands with COFCO to ensure the supply of grain to Shanghai, and more than 360 tons of rice noodles arrived in Shanghai; Jd.com has established more than 1000 “contactless community guarantee stations” in closed communities in Shanghai. Jd.com has urgently dispatched 14000 tons of materials, and the number of front-line personnel assisting Shanghai has increased to more than 4000; JD logistics mobilized 3246 people nationwide to reinforce Shanghai and made every effort to solve the accommodation problem. JD logistics became the first rotation leader of the green supply chain special committee; JD health joined hands with China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000999) and Hainan Hainan Poly Pharm.Co.Ltd(300630) to donate drugs to Shanghai; Meituan’s Wuhan warehouse urgently deployed nearly 100000 materials to arrive in Shanghai; Dingdong has set up a special group to ensure the supply of vegetables, and the replenishment in Guangzhou has exceeded 500 tons; Nearly 70% of the pre warehouse stores in Youxian Shanghai resumed operation every day; Hungry? Implement the “relay” service mode in the control area of Guangzhou sealing area. Traditional retail: in the first quarter, the retail sales of supermarkets, convenience stores, specialty stores and specialty stores in retail units above designated size increased by 3.2%, 10.1%, 6.6% and 1.0% respectively year-on-year, and the retail sales of department stores decreased by 3.3% year-on-year; HEMA invested to add 3 materials to all group purchase orders in Shanghai and give them to the elderly in the community; HEMA launched the “mobile supermarket” in Shanghai; Carrefour opened a “mobile supermarket” for public transportation in Shanghai, serving the first batch of 8 surrounding communities Suning.Com Co.Ltd(002024) Shanghai’s large cargo logistics and distribution capacity has recovered to the level of 90% before the epidemic, and Suning.Com Co.Ltd(002024) the second batch of Shanghai aid distributors have arrived in Shanghai Chengdu Hongqi Chain Co.Ltd(002697) opens Alipay small program distribution service in the same city; Yonghui full link retail digital system “yhdos” has been put into use in four places. Gold and jewelry: the retail sales of gold, silver and jewelry commodities increased by 7.6% in the first quarter.
Investment suggestions:
Maintain the “overweight” rating of the commercial retail industry.
Investment main line 1: gold jewelry continues its recovery trend and high outlook. It is recommended to pay attention to Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) , Chow Tai Fook, Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) .
Investment mainline 2: common prosperity background, superimposed traffic peaking status quo, Internet enterprises are facing fierce competition, it is suggested to pay attention to Jingdong group, which has low regulatory risk, focuses on performance efficiency with retail as the king, and builds a moat with supply chain advantages.
Investment main line 3: Recently, the epidemic situation in China has been repeated, local control has become increasingly strict, and residents have hoarded goods. Pay attention to the repair opportunities of head supermarkets with the advantage of fresh supply chain. It is suggested to pay attention to Yonghui Superstores Co.Ltd(601933) , Jiajiayue Group Co.Ltd(603708) , Chengdu Hongqi Chain Co.Ltd(002697) .
Risk tips:
Repeated outbreaks; Macroeconomic depression; Industry competition intensifies.
