This week's market
This week (22.4.18-22.4.22), the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, gem index and media board index fell by 3.9%, 5.1%, 6.7% and 5.3% respectively.
The first three stocks in the sector rose this week Dasheng Times Cultural Investment Co.Ltd(600892) (23.3%), Citic Guoan Information Industry Co.Ltd(000839) (20.0%), Shanghai U9 Game Co.Ltd(600652) (15.8%), and the last three Beijing Shuzhi Technology Co.Ltd(300038) (- 35.2%), Whole Easy Internet Technology Co.Ltd(002464) (- 22.6%), Guizhou Bc&Tv Information Network Co.Ltd(600996) (- 19.0%).
Stocks in the overseas media sector rose this week, with the top three Lexiang group (7.7%), Huiliang Technology (3.3%), chuangmengtiandi (0.5%), the last three didi travel (- 30.1%), Zhihu (- 20.8%), and roblox (- 18.9%).
This week's view
According to the main market PC game users released by Game Age Research Institute, the international market of the Steam, the Chinese mainland is ranked first in the different market income scale, with 13272 billion yen (66 billion 300 million yuan) in the mainland, and the United States ranks 423 billion 200 million (about 21 billion 100 million yuan) in the 423 billion 200 million yen, followed by Indonesia (60 billion 200 million yen), Germany (56 billion 400 million yen), and the United Kingdom (56 billion 200 million yen). India (49.8 billion yen), South Korea (39.1 billion yen). According to the game industry review "steam International Edition National and regional revenue scale exceeds 60 billion yuan and the potential market scale of end game exceeds expectations" released on April 23, the potential market scale space of end game market in 2021 is about 127.38 billion yuan, accounting for about 39.6% of the market, and the statistical scope of steam national and regional revenue scale does not include the consumption capacity of Chinese people in other regions (some game locked areas, such as Lost Ark, European and American clothes). More than half of the demand in the end game market overflows, and the demand space of the end game market may be greatly underestimated. We believe that China's end game has been in a market environment of weak supply and strong demand for a long time. The head end game R & D manufacturers may reap large dividends by launching end games. At the same time, in the VR / AR era, companies with strong end game R & D strength may benefit.
According to ZOL Beijing Centergate Technologies (Holding) Co.Ltd(000931) online, meta aims to launch its first AR glasses in 2024 as part of its Nazare project, and plans to launch the second and third iterations in 2026 and 2028 respectively. The first AR glasses will be independent of the user's mobile phone, but need a "mobile phone shaped device" to process the calculation and rely on the wrist strap based on electric pulse derived from Ctrl labs for control. We believe that the development path of meta universe will go through three stages: g-end / b-end large-scale projects and application promotion, BtoC application popularization, C-end application and content popularization. Among them, the prosperity of C-end (the large-scale popularization of back-end content and Applications) requires the popularization of C-end mobile devices as a precondition. At present, Chinese and foreign giants have successively entered the consumer hardware products of metauniverse, which is expected to accelerate the development process of C-end metauniverse.
Investment advice
(1) influenced by liquidity, China US game and strong regulatory expectations, the Internet leader continued to kill and has entered the oversold range. We continue to look forward to the new opportunities of the Internet 3 era. The core recommends the short video leader of the community (Kwai -W) while paying attention to the Internet leader, such as the US -W and Tencent holdings.
(2) immersing in the Internet is the future development trend. Metauniverse is in the initial stage of development. Compared with the implementation of C-end applications (requiring the popularization of access terminals), we believe that g-end / b-end projects are expected to be implemented first. At present, various countries and local governments have gradually introduced relevant policies of the meta universe. City pavilions, exhibition halls, theme pavilions, enterprise pavilions and cultural tourism performance activities are expected to become the first application scenarios for virtual cultural and creative projects. Core recommendations include [ Shanghai Fengyuzhu Culture Technology Co.Ltd(603466) ], creative design leaders of cultural and tourism activities [ Beijing Fengshangshiji Culture Media Co.Ltd(300860) ], [ Silkroad Visual Technology Co.Ltd(300556) ], etc. In the near future, many first tier cities will hold the meta universe summit, which highlights the thematic opportunities of the meta universe sector (while considering the impact of changes in the external environment on risk appetite). It is suggested to pay attention to the NFT direction [ Visual China Group Co.Ltd(000681) ], [ Three'S Company Media Group Co.Ltd(605168) ], [ Inmyshow Digital Technology (Group) Co.Ltd(600556) ]; Meta universe platform direction [ Beijing Quanshi World Online Network Information Co.Ltd(002995) ]; Virtual digital human direction [ Bluefocus Intelligent Communications Group Co.Ltd(300058) ], [ Hylink Digital Solution Co.Ltd(603825) ].
(3) we are optimistic about the fundamentals of the game industry for a long time, and the short-term policy disturbance is expected to promote the development of the game industry. At present, the share price of game companies has experienced a deep correction due to the suspension of edition numbers. After the reissue of edition numbers, the industry certainty has been established and has long-term investment value. It is suggested to focus on [ Wuhu 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group Co.Ltd(002555) ], which has strong operation ability, proven high-quality game R & D ability and sea distribution ability; [ Perfect World Co.Ltd(002624) ] with high-quality R & D ability and end-to-end tour of Zhuxian world; Focusing on research and development, small and beautiful [ G-Bits Network Technology(Xiamen)Co.Ltd(603444) ]; [netease-s] with rich product matrix and strong risk resistance; [bilibili-sw] and [heart company] which are greatly affected by the game version number.
Risk tips
The development progress of metauniverse is less than expected, the improvement of overseas liquidity is less than expected, the policy supervision is stricter than expected, the flow decline of game companies affected by the version number is more than expected, and the risk appetite is reduced due to changes in the external environment.
