Liquidity: SPDR gold ETF position continued to hit a 12-month high. (1) The value of BCI financing environment index in March 2022 was 46.18, a month on month (- 10.23%), and the high probability of periodic high point has appeared at the end of September 2020 (54.02). According to historical experience, this is not good for the medium and long term of gem index; (2) There is a strong positive correlation between the growth difference between M1 and M2 and the Shanghai Stock Index: the growth difference between M1 and M2 was – 5.0 percentage points in March 2022 and – 0.50 percentage points month on month; (3) SPDR’s gold ETF position this week was 110413 tons, a month on month increase of + 0.42%, a new 12-month high.
Infrastructure and real estate chain: in March, the output of excavators and the sales of trucks fell to a five-year low. (1) Price changes this week: thread + 0.20%, cement price index – 0.44%, rubber + 0.39%, coke + 0.00%, coking coal + 4.25%, iron ore – 0.30%; (2) This week, the national blast furnace capacity utilization rate, cement, petroleum asphalt and all steel tire operating rate were -0.07pct, + 1.80pct, -2.30pct and + 2.40pct respectively; (3) In March 2022, the output of excavators was 30800 units, a year-on-year increase of – 47.3%, and the sales volume of trucks was 350000 units, a year-on-year increase of – 30.7%.
Real estate completion chain: the profits of titanium dioxide and flat glass continued to be low in the same period. (1) The prices of titanium dioxide and glass were + 0.00% and + 0.00% month on month respectively this week; (2) This week, the profit of titanium dioxide was 904 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 30.70%, and the gross profit of flat glass was 253 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 25.87%.
Industrial chain: the operating rate of semi steel tire is in the middle in the same period of 6 years. (1) Price performance of major bulk commodities this week: the price of cold rolling, copper and aluminum changed by + 0.71%, – 0.45%, + 0.32% month on month, and the corresponding gross profit changed by + 25.04%, – 0.49%, – 0.25%; (2) This week, the operating rate of semi steel tire in China was 67.39%, with a month on month ratio of -0.99 percentage points.
Breakdown varieties: the price of prebaked anode is at the highest level since 2017, and the gross profit of the iron and steel industry has rebounded for two consecutive weeks. (1) Graphite electrode: the ultra-high power is 25500 yuan / ton, a month on month ratio of +0.00%, and the comprehensive gross profit is 4217.4 yuan / ton, a month on month ratio of -0.94%; (2) Nickel: the price this week was 244200 yuan / ton, up + 3.39% from last week; (3) Prebaked anode: the price this week is 7100 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of + 0.00%; (4) The price of electrolytic aluminum is 21800 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 0.32%, and the estimated profit is 3556.8 yuan / ton (excluding tax), a month on month increase of – 0.25%; (5) This week, the Platts price index was 159.85 US dollars / ton, and the comprehensive gross profit of the iron and steel industry was 291 yuan / ton, up + 1.18% from last week; (6) The price of molybdenum concentrate is 2840 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of – 0.35%.
Price comparison relationship: the price difference of cold and hot rolling is 550 yuan / ton, which is at the highest level in the same period of 6 years. (1) The price ratio of screw thread to iron ore was 5.14 this week; (2) The price difference between hot coil and rebar this Friday is 60 yuan / ton; (3) This week, the price difference between cold rolled steel and hot rolled steel in Shanghai reached 550 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 100 yuan / ton; (4) The price ratio of electrolytic nickel in stainless steel hot rolling is 0.09; (5) The price difference between spiral nuts (mainly used in real estate) and deformed steel bars (mainly used in infrastructure construction) reached 200 yuan / ton on Friday, up + 5.26% from last week; (6) The price difference of rebar between Xinjiang and Shanghai was 40 yuan / ton on Friday.
Export chain: the utilization rate of crude steel production capacity in the United States rose slightly to 80.9% month on month, close to the same period last year. (1) The CCFI composite index of China’s export container freight rate index was 310978 points this week, with a chain comparison of – 0.60%; (2) This week, the utilization rate of crude steel production capacity in the United States was 80.90%, with a month on month ratio of + 1.20 percentage points.
Valuation quantile: this week, the CSI 300 index was – 4.19%. Shipping (- 1.13%) was the best performing sector in the cycle. The quantile of Pb ratio of ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to that of Shanghai and Shenzhen (since 2013) were 36.41% and 80.18% respectively; The ratio of Pb in Pu steel sector to Pb in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is currently 0.52, with the highest value of 0.82 since 2013 (reached in August 2017).
Investment suggestion: this week, the national development and Reform Commission made it clear that the crude steel output in 2022 will decline year-on-year, and the expectation of supply contraction in the iron and steel industry will increase. It is suggested to pay attention to Maanshan Iron & Steel Company Limited(600808) , Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) , Xinjiang Ba Yi Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600581) , Xinyu Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600782) , Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) ; The price of prebaked anode is at the highest level since 2017. It is recommended to pay attention to Sunstone Development Co.Ltd(603612) .
Risk prompt: the risk of correlation failure based on historical data; The risk of government regulation of commodity prices; Risk of poor management of the company.
