Breeding sector: 1) live pigs: pig prices have rebounded continuously, and the sustainability of the rise may be limited. It is expected that the price shock from April to May will still reverse on the left, and the sector still has allocation value. On April 10, 2022, the price of Sanyuan pig abroad was 12.5 yuan / kg, with a weekly increase of 2.46% and a year-on-year decrease of 45.41%; As of March 2022, the number of fertile sows in China was 41.85 million, down 1.95% month on month, and the production capacity is still in the process of de industrialization. As of April 22, 2022, the profit loss of outsourcing piglet breeding is 157.61 yuan / head, and the loss of self breeding is 376.61 yuan / head. As of April 22, the price of two yuan sows was 33.04 yuan / kg, a slight increase of 1.07% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 57.45%. As of April 8, the price of piglets in 22 provinces and cities fell to 24.25 yuan / kg, a week-on-week decrease of 1.94% and a year-on-year decrease of 74.52%. We believe that there are multiple reasons for the large fluctuation of pig prices in the recent period, including the obstruction of transportation caused by covid-19 epidemic, the passive pressing of fences, the demand for hoarding materials at the consumer end, the increase of inventory of slaughtering enterprises and traders, and the increase of secondary fattening in the industry. Therefore, the actual number of pigs and pork on the market has shrunk, while the demand for piglets has increased, resulting in the continuous rise of piglet prices, The pig grain ratio gradually approached the warning level of 5:1, and all the fifth batch of collection and storage were photographed on April 22. At present, the industry supply is still relatively high, the price support is weak, and short-term disturbance factors or dynamic changes. It is expected that the pig price will mainly fluctuate from April to may, and the binary sow price is still running low, which reflects limited confidence in the market next year. Generally speaking, the industry’s willingness to fill the column is still weak, and the trend of de duplication remains unchanged. The de duplication range and pace will determine the high point of the subsequent cycle. It is recommended to pay close attention to the recent fluctuation of pig price and the de industrialization of industry capacity, We believe that it is still on the left side of the cycle reversal, and the sector still has allocation value. Considering multiple factors such as the flexibility and certainty of listing, capital status and the space for full cost reduction, the pig sector is recommended: Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , and it is recommended to pay attention to: Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , Hunan New Wellful Co.Ltd(600975) , Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) , Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) . 2) Poultry:
White chicken prices continued to rise, while yellow chicken prices fluctuated and stabilized. Recently, affected by multiple factors such as the reduction of chicken seedling supply in the market and the increase of transportation costs, the price of wool chicken and chicken seedling has continued to rise, the introduction of avian influenza in the United States or affecting industries, and the supply of subsequent grandparents and parents may be reduced. As of April 22, 2022, the average price in the main production area is 9.24 yuan / kg, with a weekly increase of 3.94% and a year-on-year increase of 4.76%. Covid-19 epidemic has restrained the consumption of high-end poultry and meat in restaurants and families. The price of yellow chicken has fluctuated recently. As of April 22, the average price of fast big chicken, medium speed chicken, native chicken and black bone chicken is 6.08 yuan / 6.50 yuan / 7.98 yuan / 8.13 yuan / 500g, with a change of + 0.16% / – 2.84% / + 3.37% / – 3.79% week on week ratio and – 0.49% / – 11.04% / – 0.62% / + 8.54% in the same score. The tight supply pattern of yellow chicken industry remains unchanged. It is expected that the boom will continue in the medium term. After the loose control of covid-19 epidemic, the demand will warm up to form price support. It is optimistic about the industry leader with good cost control ability and growth, while white chicken is optimistic about the industry leader with significant breeding advantages. Key recommendations: Jiangsu Lihua Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(300761) , it is recommended to pay attention to: Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Fujian Sunner Development Co.Ltd(002299) , Hunan Xiangjia Animal Husbandry Company Limited(002982) . 3) Beef cattle breeding: in September 2020, the general office of the State Council issued the opinions on promoting the high-quality development of animal husbandry, which put forward the goal of maintaining the annual self-sufficiency rate of beef and mutton at about 85%, with a large gap between supply and demand. Pay attention to the opportunities of beef cattle breeding industry. It is suggested to pay attention to: Pengdu Agriculture & Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(002505) .
Animal protection sector: the deadline for the new version of GMP is approaching, and the leader of R & D + production + market advantage will benefit. 1) In the field of veterinary biological products, under the background of the effective promotion of the “fight first and then supplement” policy and the gradual elimination of the policy of political seedling collection in 2025, veterinary biological products will usher in market-oriented development; 2) Veterinary chemical drugs: since July 2020, the feed has been completely “banned”, the demand for therapeutic veterinary chemical drugs has ushered in rapid growth, and the development opportunities of new veterinary drugs are considerable; As of May 31, 2022, the new version of GMP has not been reached, the new standard industry capacity may be dismissed, the access threshold will be raised, and the competition pattern is expected to be optimized. In the medium and long term, industry leaders with the advantages of joint research and development of front-end scientific research institutes + high-quality production capacity + market channels are expected to make full profits. Key recommendations: China Animal Husbandry Industry Co.Ltd(600195) – market seedlings and high-end chemical drugs support high performance growth. It is suggested to pay attention to: Jinyu Bio-Technology Co.Ltd(600201) , Hvsen Biotechnology Co.Ltd(300871) , Tianjin Ringpu Bio-Technology Co.Ltd(300119) .
Seed industry sector: the importance of food security continues to increase, and attention is paid to the long-term layout opportunities of seed industry. The issue of Document No. 1 in 2022 and the government work report of the two sessions on March 5 once again emphasize the theme of food security and seed industry revitalization. Seed industry security is the basis of food security. In recent years, industry policies have been issued intensively to encourage R & D and innovation in the seed industry, and the competition pattern of the industry is expected to be continuously optimized. In the future, the commercialization of transgenic breeding will bring industry expansion, with long-term layout opportunities, and industry leaders with advantages in large varieties and R & D and breeding technology are expected to benefit. It is suggested to pay attention to: Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) , Winall Hi-Tech Seed Co.Ltd(300087) , Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) .
Risk tips: sudden epidemics or natural disasters, repeated covid-19 epidemics, and the implementation progress of industrial policies is less than expected.
