Lithium salt transaction has entered the off-season, and the price is under pressure. During the week, the prices of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide continued to weaken, and the mainstream transaction of battery grade lithium carbonate was between 47 Shenzhen Kingkey Smart Agriculture Times Co.Ltd(000048) 0000 yuan. Supply: according to the statistics of Baichuan information, the output of lithium carbonate in China this week is expected to be 4360 tons, an increase of 80 tons month on month. Lithium hydroxide is subject to tight lithium concentrate and limited capacity release. Demand: during the week, Tesla, SAIC and several core enterprises in the automotive industry chain began to resume work and production. They are optimistic about Q3 demand, and it is expected that the production scheduling of battery enterprises is expected to increase.
The price of lithium concentrate continues to rise, focusing on PLS auction next week. Within the week, MINRES released the production and sales data of 2022q1. The output of Marion lithium concentrate was 104000 tons, an increase of 6% month on month and a simultaneous decrease of 5%; The shipment volume was 94000 tons, with a month on month decrease of 31% and a year-on-year decrease of 27%. The main reason may be the impact of the epidemic and the poor port transportation. Pls will hold an auction in BMX next week. The market generally expects the price to be more than 5000 US dollars / ton. Pls auction price has certain guiding significance for the price of lithium concentrate in the future. It is expected that the price of lithium concentrate in the medium and short term will continue to rise.
Mexico passed the lithium nationalization bill, which is expected to prolong the lithium supply shortage cycle indefinitely. This week, Mexico’s lower house of parliament approved a mining bill that recognizes the state’s control over lithium mining. Mexico is rich in lithium resources. The main projects include Sonora project jointly held by Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) and bacanora, with lithium resource reserves of about 8.82 million tons of LCE. Coincidentally, Chile’s constitutional assembly passed a proposal to promote the nationalization of copper, lithium and other strategic assets. At present, the high price of lithium, whether from an economic or political point of view, makes more and more events against the trend of globalization, the prevalence of resource nationalism and the increased risk of overseas lithium mines. If other countries follow up, the lithium supply shortage cycle will be greatly extended from 2023 to 2025.
Ningde continues to add lithium mica, which highlights the role of China’s lithium resources in fixing the sea god needle. On April 21, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) subsidiary successfully obtained the exploration right of Yichun lithium mine, and it is inferred that the amount of associated lithium metal oxide is 265678 million tons. The increasing uncertainty of overseas projects highlights the role of China’s lithium resources as a sea god. This time Ningde continues to add lithium mica, which also shows that there is still a shortage of lithium resources, which is good for China’s Qinghai Tibet Salt Lake, West Sichuan lithium mine and Jiangxi mica!
Focus on: Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) , Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co.Ltd(300428) , Sinomine Resource Group Co.Ltd(002738) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) .
Risk tip: the macro environment changes, the demand is lower than expected, and the policy uncertainty increases.
